FAL,
I'm not sure where you get the idea that "determinism" is what we object to in EU III, rather than its vast array of other problems. Ugly map, ugly interface, poor presentation, lack of historical flavor, etc., these are blemishes, but all of them and more would be worth putting up with if the game had the realism and intricacy of past Paradox products. EU, CK, HOI and Victoria were very different games, and as you say CK left the mold within a few years of game start. Nonetheless, even that, which one can easily say was a failure (although one not the fault of Paradox itself), was still a genuine attempt at creating an historically themed game with an historical atmosphere and engine if not an historical timeline a la EU.
Perhaps EU III was a genuine attempt as well, but if so they failed miserably. And I strongly suspect they weren't trying for what they'd been trying for in their previous games at all. Just look at the culture groups. That they work the way they do suggests a failure to grasp the historical realities of the period. That Turkish is in the same group as Uzbek suggests they don't care about the historical realities of the period.