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    Real Strategy Requires Cunning

gjflanker

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Fantastic AAR! I've been following for a couple of months and it is truly the best I've seen. Reminds me of one of the best history classes I took in college, Medieval Polish history. Wrote my paper on the Polish-Soviet war (pre-WWII) which most people never heard about.

Aside from your writings, I very much enjoy the posts from folks who REALLY know their Polish history and culture.

Again, absolutely fantastic! Thank you so very much!
 

Brandenburg III

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I’ve been reading this since the AAR awards a month or two ago and have to comment on how great of an AAR this is. The last time I tried HoI it was the first in the series so I’ll withhold commentary but I wanted to let you know that you have one more reader.
 

robw963

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I'm about halfway through creating the next update, but I'm sorry to report that I won't be able to complete that before the end of this weekend. I'm afraid my workload is just a little too overwhelming right now. I also hope to dig out a little time to respond to recent comments as well. Bear with me, I'll be out from under my workpile soon. Thanks :)
 

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NO UPDATE?!?!?!? :wacko::confused::confused::(
 

unmerged(102667)

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I think what he means is that this is the first time (If I am correctly) that Robw963 has not poste a real weekly update demokratickid.
I hope you will come out from under your worke pile to give us another stunning update. I cant wait to see stalin kissing Pilsudski's feet. :D
 

Kurt_Steiner

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Bearing in mind the work that a single update may mean, it's no wonder it takes so much time. Be patient.
 

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I rather like reading this AAR, and I'm definitely looking forward to future updates.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is Stanislaw Ulam, the tech team. With a victorious Poland, wouldn't it make sense to make an event which brings him back? It certainly makes sense for roleplaying purposes, even if you never intend to go nuclear.
 

Jedrek

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Well, going for nukes would be interesting (yeah, I can't wait to see Poland investing ~80% od her IC into reactors...), but I still prefer mighty Polish tanks ^^
 

Tommy4ever

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I have been reading your AAR for awhile now but have never commented. But I'd just like to say that it is the best I have ever seen. Hope you continue to do brilliant work :)
 

robw963

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*glares in disbelief*
*opens photoshop*
*fails miserably*

:D
erhm.. *cough*.. good job done, you're really starting to use those old maps a lot, eh?
Ha! I hardly consider your graphics skills a "failure" Milities. Your AAR is beautiful. I'm finding all kinds of cool period maps which i'm integrating into my updates but pretty soon I'll need to rely more on my own creations since I'm beginning to stray pretty far from the OTL.

You know of course that Stalin wouldn't go for the annexation of Baltic States with vitorious Poland and untouched western allies? Since Poland never fell, France and UK still have something to say in eastern Europe... :)
Can't wait.
Given my current economic and military strength, I think it's fair to assume that the western alliance's influence over eastern Europe is waining. As I slowly shift away from them, I believe it's realistic to assume that Poland's sphere of influence would fill that void. It won't be long now before a more tanglible break away is revealed. I believe Baltic State annexation by the USSR is still valid...Stalin would feel quite threatened by a resurgent Poland.

You were looking for this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_annexation_of_German_territory_after_World_War_II

It's is thoroughly known that the Dutch are very tolerant and keen off all the nice Poles living and working here today :D (please giev dutch lands!)
Kassel is a bit off tbh, you should redo the map but without that prov.
Wow! That was an ambitious goal! Seems to me this more of an angry, punitive response on the part of the Dutch rather than anything grounded in cultural/ethnic or historial realities.

i think getting japan to join your alliance is a really nice option and i think it would be pretty much viable. i think that with china already conquered they would be interested in having a partner to divide the ussr.
another idea would be that if you don't want japan in your alliance for some reason, you might make an event that makes japan backstab ussr in the case of a soviet-polish war.
and in case of a war against the allies, japan would make a perfect trade partner.
I'm definitely not ruling out some kind of future arrangement with the Japanese. Trade would be tricky because once war commences again the trade efficiency will drop badly...but certainly tech trades are possible...and who knows? possibly an alliance.

I approve of an overly large Netherlands.

Although I don't really mind Poland keeping the whole thing, either.
I'm too greedy to go carving out chunks of Germany..particularly the Ruhr which is chock full of IC.

No no. It's supposed to be a German state as a puppet of Poland.
Whether it's given to the Dutch or set up as an independent (puppet) state...I'm not likely to do that...not with Germany anyway.

Poland continues its efforts admirably. You must be coming up with a lot of money for all this influencing. Your progress against the Soviets on the dipolmatic front has been most interesting.
One of the main reasons behind showing the Trade agreements in my last series of updates is to demonstrate how I'm achieving the Money income to afford all these diplomatic and intelligence moves. Even then, I'm beginning to run low on cash...but I'll keep pressing to increase my Money income just the same. Pretty soon, my diplomatic efforts with the USSR will begin to payoff as they begin to loosen up from a trade perspective.

Fantastic AAR! I've been following for a couple of months and it is truly the best I've seen. Reminds me of one of the best history classes I took in college, Medieval Polish history. Wrote my paper on the Polish-Soviet war (pre-WWII) which most people never heard about.

Aside from your writings, I very much enjoy the posts from folks who REALLY know their Polish history and culture.

Again, absolutely fantastic! Thank you so very much!
Thanks very much! I've actually learned a lot about Poland's interwar history by doing this AAR....and I'm still learning more. It's a really fascinating subject to me. Just curious...how did you manage to convince your professor to allow you to write a paper about the Polish-Soviet War in a class about Medieval Polish history? :confused:

I’ve been reading this since the AAR awards a month or two ago and have to comment on how great of an AAR this is. The last time I tried HoI it was the first in the series so I’ll withhold commentary but I wanted to let you know that you have one more reader.
I'm really glad to hear that! Welcome! It's always great to know that more readers are joining.

Thaks for reminding me of the new AARlander, I had forgotten...
I really want to encourage people to have a look at the AARLander. These guys all put a lot of effort and time into creating really thoughtful articles. I really encourage everyone to support them by posting your comments in THIS THREAD

Haha! thanks! (i think)

Bearing in mind the work that a single update may mean, it's no wonder it takes so much time. Be patient.
Uggh...I feel really badly about falling behind and missing last week's update. Believe me, if it were totally up to me, I'd be updating daily here....I'm afraid the realities of life and work prevent that however. But a new update is coming this weekend! I promise!

I rather like reading this AAR, and I'm definitely looking forward to future updates.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is Stanislaw Ulam, the tech team. With a victorious Poland, wouldn't it make sense to make an event which brings him back? It certainly makes sense for roleplaying purposes, even if you never intend to go nuclear.
You make a great point. In this timeline, Ulam should stick around. I may go mod him back in but honestly? I'm not likely to follow a nuclear path. I find it a lot more fun to win conventionally.

Well, going for nukes would be interesting (yeah, I can't wait to see Poland investing ~80% od her IC into reactors...), but I still prefer mighty Polish tanks ^^
Exactly! I'd much rather dump my IC into a mighty Polish tank korps and conventional military.

I have been reading your AAR for awhile now but have never commented. But I'd just like to say that it is the best I have ever seen. Hope you continue to do brilliant work :)
I'm really glad you like it. I'm hoping to find a nice chunk of time over the holidays to pump out some great new updates. Let's hope my clients get distracted by Christmas!

One last note, Is there anyone out there who'd be willing to help me with an analysis I'm trying to do for BWA calculations? BWA by itself is a very straightforward calculation, but I'm trying to layer in some other factors and I need someone to bounce some asumptions off of. Please PM me if you're interested in having a look and lending a hand at what I'm trying to do. Thanks!
 
Last edited:

Hellvink

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Wow! That was an ambitious goal! Seems to me this more of an angry, punitive response on the part of the Dutch rather than anything grounded in cultural/ethnic or historial realities.
You're absolutely right :p
War + Border = LANDGRAB OMIGOD ?
To be honest, this is about Poland so what you could do is transfer the hell out of the ruhr to eastern Germany/Western Poland(/Czechoslovakia?) and dump the empty shells on other nations which would free up a lot of patriot supressing troops. After the Bear falls, which we all know it will, you could set your sights on the west again and take it all in one fell swoop.
You could even make it a bit storyline-ish, like the allies pressuring Poland into a sort of West/East divide like they did with the Soviet Union in the original timeline. Just an idea, hope it helps you :)
 

Meadow

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Take as long as you need. This is worth waiting for.

As for puppeting... I 100% appreciate your need to keep Germany (and the surrounding lands) for their IC during the fight with the USSR, but am I correct in deducing from hints you have dropped in the past that you have no objection to releasing a downsized (as in, your realistic claims stay with Poland) Germany once the Red Bear has fallen, or indeed when all your enemies have been subjugated or defeated? I'd love to see what someone of your graphical and AAR-ing ability could do with the traditional 'epilogue post' that cleans up borders and establishes a 'new order' and so on.
 

unmerged(71931)

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You make a great point. In this timeline, Ulam should stick around. I may go mod him back in but honestly? I'm not likely to follow a nuclear path. I find it a lot more fun to win conventionally.
Ulam migrated to USA in 1938 due to university chances there and poor atitude toward minorities in prewar Poland. I'm not 100% sure if he would stay in the more rightish Poland

As the tech team he is very important not only in nuclear but also in oil conversion techs - i think you'll need them when you capture SOV capital ;-)

Rejewski is more important and is more plausible to bring back from dead as he was evacuated in Sept '39.
Without the need to be evacuated he should stay cause he is very important in encryption & computer techs.
 

gjflanker

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"Thanks very much! I've actually learned a lot about Poland's interwar history by doing this AAR....and I'm still learning more. It's a really fascinating subject to me. Just curious...how did you manage to convince your professor to allow you to write a paper about the Polish-Soviet War in a class about Medieval Polish history?"

Good point. I don't really recall. I remember reading a book written by a Pole (or perhaps a Lithuanian) about things that happened, I think, during the 1200-1400's or so and talking about it in class (there were only about 8 of us). I think I may have been allowed to write about it because I was an ROTC type and it tied in with my military history classes. Honestly, it was a long time ago, in a land far, far away. :)
 

robw963

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WIELKOPOLSKA - Phase 3 - The Beginnings of a Plan



March 3, 1940 - 0:00 - First Armored Unit Deployment - Torun:

A very modest beginning to my future armored force arrives with a Lt. Armored division which is placed in Torun. I assign the division to Lt. General "Hubal" Dobrzanki who, while still a Major, distinguished himself as a cavalry officer during the German campaign. Hubal will make an excellent armored korp commander with his combination of logisitics expertise and sound tactical mastery. It will be important to assign Logistics Wizards to as much of my mobile forces as possible because of the signficantly higher supply and oil consumption. This will be particularly crucial as I look forward to a Russian campaign where I intend to have many armored korps operating on Offensive Supply simultaneously. Until then, I'll also want to be a frugal as possible with my oil and supply stockpiles.



March 6 - 29, 1940 - Diplomacy:

The new appointment of August Zaleski as Foreign Minister allows me to continue you my diplomatic push at 67% of the cost under Beck (59 before; 40 now). I'll begin to warm up to Romania who I hope to bring into an alliance with me. I'll do the same with Hungary later, but my relations are lower with Romania so I know it will take more time. I'm also gathering as many possible technologies from the UK (where I receive the best deals) in anticipation of losing access to the UK in the coming months. I also maintain a steady contant pressure on the USSR where I'm beginning to see signs of success.



March 8-25, 1940 - Internal Security Update:

Slowly I whittle away at the foreign spy rings within Poland. It should take me roughly 7 more weeks and I will finally have rid myself of foregn infiltrators. Once that is accomplished, I can turn my attention outwards.



March 10, 1940 - 0:00 - Improved Decryption Devices Research Compete:

Stefan Banach completes research of Improved Decryption Devices (IntOp Chance Us +25%, and a variety of other combat surprise benefits) and is immediately put onto the next project: Advanced Computing Machine, a tech for which I received a blueprint in a trade with the UK last month. Stefan Banach is my best researcher so intend to keep him as busy as I can.



March 1-26, 1940 - Trade Update:

Trade continues to thrive. I have so many profitable trade deals that I can afford to send some spare energy to Hungary as a gesture of goodwill in my effort to bring Hungary closer to my way of thinking. My diplomatic push on the Soviet Union also begins to show some benefits with the Russians offering me a modest trade deal for oil. Because of my future war ambitions and need to support a large armored force, I want trade deals that net large quantities of oil. I also look for deal that allow me to trade supplies for money to help support my continuing diplomatic and intelligence efforts.



March 14, 1940 - 1:00 - Militia Deployment - Banská Bystrica:

The 4th Militia unit arrive where it is deployed in Banská Bystrica, a former Slovakia province with a relatively high revolt risk. Militias don't do very well at supressing revolt risk, however they're a cheap unit to use to counter any insurgents that might apprear.



March 23, 1940 - 1:00 - Garrison Deployment - Stuttgart:

My 7th Garrison division arrives and is placed in Stuttgart. Revolt risk in former German territory is now nearly completely under control.



March 29, 1940 - 2:00 - Military Intelligence:

An important result of the Improved Decryption Devices technology is that I can now see more detailed information regarding enemy troop disposition (note that question marks have been revoced from the Russian divisions along my border). This will be a key advantage in the future when I'm arranging my invasions forces.



BATTLE WINNING ABILITY ANALYSIS

I have already set in motion the builds required to achieve my goal of Lt. Armor Lvl III based mobile formations. These units will spearhead an invasion of the USSR and allow me to perform encirclement and exploitation maneuvers behind enemy lines. I'll want to take advantage of the combined arms combat bonus by grouping soft target units with my armor. The combined arms combat bonus (+5% attack, +15% defense) is achieved when a korps consists of at least 1/3 hard targets (armor, mechanized) and at least 1/3 soft targets (infantry, motorized inf, cavalry). I have attempted to create an evaluation system which analyzes mobile unit formations based on several key criteria, namely:
  1. Battle Winning Ability (a simple calculation based on soft attack value multiplied by organization level)
  2. Cost in ICdays
  3. Manpower (looking specifically at how to put as much potential into a single manpower point as possible)
  4. Supply Consumption (both oil and supply consumption and its resultant effect on Transport Capacity)
  5. Mobility (unit speed is an important consideration in my evaluation)
This system accounts for each of these criteria and awards a score based on the following formula:

[BWA/ICdays/10] + [BWA/manpower/10] + [BWA/tot supply/10] + speed = SCORE

Note that I have divided the first 3 variables by 10 in an attempt to regularize these values and keep the numbers more manageable. It's more of a convenience than anything. A BWA calculation by itself doesn't provide anough information to properly evaluate mobile formations. Because I anticipate fielding anywhere between 18 and 24 armored korps, I needed an evaluation system that took into account the projected TC load impact. TC load will be a crucial constraint as all of the mobile formations will be placed on Offensive Supply (OS) when the invasion gets underway and OS doubles the supply and oil consumption of these units. Poor TC efficiency will effect the combat performace of ALL units (mobile or otherwise) and should therefore becomes a key element in any evaluation. I'm also looking towards conservation of manpower (as much as possible) therefore I have included a manpower evaluation into my formula. I want to create formations that maximize combat potential on a per manpower basis. Affordability is important as well. The cheaper these formations are to produce, the more IC I'll have to increase my supply stockpile which in turn will allow me to keep more units on OS supply longer. Lastly, formation speed is included as well. This is a particulalry important asset during encirclement maneuvers. Often just a little speed advantage can make the difference between achieving an encirclement or falling just short.



OPTION 1: Lt Arm III + Lvl I Mot Inf + Lvl I Mot Inf



This is the weakest of the formations under consideration. It's main drawback is the use of Lvl I Mot Inf, a division which has the following disadvantages:
1) higher cost than later Mot Inf models
2) slower speed than later MOt Inf models
This is not a formation type I intend to pursue. I'll likely skip Mot Inf Lvl I altogether and build the next model from scratch instead of upgrading.



OPTION 2: Lt Arm III + Lvl I Mot Inf + Lvl IV Semi Mot Cav



By swapping one of the Mot Inf Divisions in Option 1 for a Semi Mot Cava division, I begin to see the advantages of the Semi Mot Cav divisions. Those advantages are:
1) most afforable mobile formation available
2) very efficient from a manpower perspective
3) however it lacks the speed of mot inf
This formation has the same combined BWA score (1984) as Option, but scores higher because of the advantages described above.



OPTION 3: Lt Arm III + Lvl IV Semi Mot Cav + Lvl IV Semi Mot Cav



So what happens if I match 2 Semi Mot Cav divisions with an armored unit? The overall unit score improves even more. This may be a viable interim solution until I can build more powerful Mot Inf units.


OPTION 4: Lt Arm III + Lvl II Mot Inf + Lvl II Mot Inf



If I can achieve the Lvl II MOt Inf model in a timely fashion, I can realize the following advantages:
1) lower cost than Lvl I Mot Inf
2) higher speed than Lvl I Mot Inf
3) better soft attack value which has a direct effect on the BWA of the division
This is likely to be the formation I'll pursue, particularly since Mot Inf improve nicely with subsequent upgrades.



OPTION 4a: Lt Arm III + Lvl II Mot Inf + Lvl II Mot Inf + brigades



It's interesting to see what effect adding brigades would have to overall formation score. There are 3 different brigade types I would consider using:
1) SP Artillery (which has good soft attack values and won't slow my formation down))
2) Lt Armor (which add +8 organization to any division to which it is attached)
3) Armored Car (which add +5 organization to any division to which it is attached)
Brigading divisions (using this evaluation system) add significantly to the value of the overall formation. I'll definitely consider adding brigades to armored korps over time.



OPTION 5: Bas Arm III + Lvl II Mot Inf + Lvl II Mot Inf



As a check, I also evaluate Bas Arm III in place of Lt Arm III to measure if the improved combat performance of bigger armor is worthwhile. Interestingly, this formation receives a lower score than than Option 4 further reinforcing my decision to stick with Lt armored formations. The primary disadvantage of later model armored units are:
1) significantly higher cost
2) significantly higher supply and oil usage
I'll likely delay upgrading my Lt. Armored units and instead focus on Motorized Infantry and brigade developement.



CONCLUSION:
Option 4 emerges as the best mobile unit formation out of the options I've modeled. Given enough time, I'll brigade as many of these units as possible to derive the advantages demonstrated in Option 4a.

I'm not 100% confident that my evaluation system is completely valid and I certainly welcome any and all commentary.
 
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