For me, the biggest culprit in this supposed "deficient AI" is an intrisic powergaming tendency most people seem to have. While I do agree that there are generally a couple of areas in which we could use an improvement in the AI, the problem is that the character side of gameplay is an utterly irrelevant issue for the player, but means everything to the AI. As someone said, although Ai's behaviour is RNG, it's modulated by its traits, so it's by no means random. When an ambitious zealous Holy Roman emperor dies and a content and kind duke inherits the empire, there actual modifications on how you deal with the emperor as a sunni, for example. There are palpable changes in how you interact with him. And "history" altogether might change because, for example, the holy wars the the previous empire had been "planning" are probably not going to happen now.
But if the same change happened to the player, there would be NO impact whatsoever on gameplay. A player will most often than not not even bat an eye if they're torturing someone while having the kind trait, or if they are content and sympathetic towards islam while trying to conquer the whole middle east. Traits are simply modifiers that function as barriers to the player. A bad military skill with a good learning skill does not mean that the player will spend more time on learning focus and hermetic events. It simply means that he will have fewer soldiers to work with in the wars he was planning while controlling the late brilliant strategist.
For example, i always see players complaining about gavelkind and how it fucks up inheritance. But actually why are players so afraid that we end up after the death of charlemagne in a situation like the 867 start, all of his children inheriting and being indepedent?
My point is that people should actually treat the traits as something that matter and guide character behaviour. Painting the map is really not this game's greatest strength, and much of the original criticism simply boils down to the fact that the character-based nation management represents a truncated chain of priorities for the AI, while remaining perfectly stable for the player.
You could never model "what made empires fall" in CK2 because the problem has one simple name: Perfect information. You always know with 100% accuracy what the intentions are of ALL the characters in the game towards you (you know the exact numerical value of one's opinion), you know exactly why a character is mad and what you can do to improve his opinion, you know exactly where the enemy's troops are, how much much money they have, how loyal his vassals are to him etc. And there's even the even larger issue that is being able to raise levies at all times and move them back and forth with ease and with no issues whatsoever. The HRE is able to muster an entire army of 80 000 people to fight over a single county in a de jure war and such armies can move through provinces with not a single consequence, like devastation, peasant unhappiness, violence etc....this is not how it should work at all if you want more realistic mechanics when dealing with empire instability.
But if the same change happened to the player, there would be NO impact whatsoever on gameplay. A player will most often than not not even bat an eye if they're torturing someone while having the kind trait, or if they are content and sympathetic towards islam while trying to conquer the whole middle east. Traits are simply modifiers that function as barriers to the player. A bad military skill with a good learning skill does not mean that the player will spend more time on learning focus and hermetic events. It simply means that he will have fewer soldiers to work with in the wars he was planning while controlling the late brilliant strategist.
For example, i always see players complaining about gavelkind and how it fucks up inheritance. But actually why are players so afraid that we end up after the death of charlemagne in a situation like the 867 start, all of his children inheriting and being indepedent?
My point is that people should actually treat the traits as something that matter and guide character behaviour. Painting the map is really not this game's greatest strength, and much of the original criticism simply boils down to the fact that the character-based nation management represents a truncated chain of priorities for the AI, while remaining perfectly stable for the player.
You have issues with the AI OP. So do I. Though in my case the real question isn't why the AI is so bad at snowballing. That's the wrong question to ask.
The more important question is why the AI is so bad at causing empires to collapse. Recall this is the medieval ages. Past a certain size no empire survived intact for more than a century, two at most (China being the exception.)
Yet the AI is terrible at making the player's empire collapse, let alone another AI's.
You could never model "what made empires fall" in CK2 because the problem has one simple name: Perfect information. You always know with 100% accuracy what the intentions are of ALL the characters in the game towards you (you know the exact numerical value of one's opinion), you know exactly why a character is mad and what you can do to improve his opinion, you know exactly where the enemy's troops are, how much much money they have, how loyal his vassals are to him etc. And there's even the even larger issue that is being able to raise levies at all times and move them back and forth with ease and with no issues whatsoever. The HRE is able to muster an entire army of 80 000 people to fight over a single county in a de jure war and such armies can move through provinces with not a single consequence, like devastation, peasant unhappiness, violence etc....this is not how it should work at all if you want more realistic mechanics when dealing with empire instability.