Johan said:
If you want an AI that follows detailed limiting-scripts, take a look at HoI2. it took about five as long to make proper historically limiting scripts to make the AI play historical, as it took to make it play with the rules at all. And still it breaks down when the world goes ahistorical.
I understand that the AI has an internal thought process, in which it evaluates its options, by taking into account its relative position to other countries (I'm guessing, location, ai/hp, and the whole long list of national stats and data); and possibly also the relative positions of other countries to each other.
That is definitely a good thing. But I often find myself wishing I could interfere in that basic thought process (telling an elector what criteria to apply for his Emperor choices would be one example).
Since NA, we do have more tools that let us evaluate country's relative position to each other (ally, overlord, alliance_with, etc. etc.), and that has added a lot of possibilities, already.
Add to that the ways of modifying ai_chance you shared, I feel like I can write an event that can tell the AI how to evaluate its situation, and to make choices, accordingly ("If the neighbor of my overlord's ally has a border with a religious enemy who is not my neighbor, I will be 20% more likely to pick option A," for example).
Finally, with triggered events on top of all that, there are no limits to the ways we can create event trees or -maps, or neuronal networks of events, or what-have-you; all fine-tuning an AI decision-making process that is based on historical precedent ("This country does something that resembles what Friedrich II did, when he faced a similar situation"), rather than historical re-enactment ("In 1756, Friedrich II will always do this.")
And the more we can give the AI countries sensible hints (based on our knowledge of historical processes) for how to evaluate their situation, the more they will act with "historical personality," while not simply following a pre-defined script.
But if we are to get to a point, where the AI truly appears as a siliconite Machiavelli, not like the stimulus-response-machine it always must be, at heart (and it does not
look like a stimulus-response-machine, even now), more ways for modders to poke around in the AI's thought processes, and more tools for events to evaluate relationality, would be helpful.
My personal top item on a wishlist would be a
trigger scope "any_country", essentially removing the current limitation on comparing only neighbors (other than ally, overlord, emperor).