Why do some nations have a lot more bad events?

[ChildeR]

its 1595 in my Mongol Khanate game and Iam still level 7 in ADM tech and I only cored like 3 provinces during the entire time.

i'd estimate there were about 30 administration failures (-1 stab), 15 comets, 5 currency devaluation thingies and another 10 other inflation events

I tried to keep stability at -1 or 0 the entire game. And I took administration as my first idea, which I highly regret. A simple -25% stability cost from religion would have saved me like a few thousand ADM points

Now iam playing Najd and Ive only had like 2 comets and maybe 1-2 other negative stab events in the first 100 years

Just confirmation bias or bad luck. The luck would have to be extraordinarily bad, though, so most likely you are also misremembering. 30 administration failures is the exact maximum you can get in 150 years (assuming you can select the idea group before the first five your pulse). The probability of that is at most 1/6**30 (assuming you don't select a second idea group or match the trigger conditions of the other 5 admin events, then it's even lower). Roughly equal to winning the EuroMillions lottery three times in a row.

 

[Halaberiel]

its 1595 in my Mongol Khanate game and Iam still level 7 in ADM tech and I only cored like 3 provinces during the entire time.

i'd estimate there were about 30 administration failures (-1 stab), 15 comets, 5 currency devaluation thingies and another 10 other inflation events

I tried to keep stability at -1 or 0 the entire game. And I took administration as my first idea, which I highly regret. A simple -25% stability cost from religion would have saved me like a few thousand ADM points

Now iam playing Najd and Ive only had like 2 comets and maybe 1-2 other negative stab events in the first 100 years

This is my life at the moment it's ridiculous. I need to start counting these events on each different country, it doesn't seem random at all.

 

[Sunspawn]

Welcome to the real world, where printing more money does not actually make your country richer.

Except that in the case of Feudia to whom he was responding, he was not printing more money - he was getting richer. You're completely outside the point.

 

[ChildeR]

Except that in the case of Feudia to whom he was responding, he was not printing more money - he was getting richer. You're completely outside the point.

Besides, printing money can make you richer, of course. It just depends on the circumstances. (Like a nation relying on exports devaluing the currency to be more competitive or overcoming a recession with no inflation and high unemployment.)

OTOH, in the real world a nation that stockpiled a treasury of tens of times the yearly government income would likely have run its growth to the ground. The game mechanics are nowhere close to modeling actual economic systems, which is fine because it's a game. I do wish they had some more depth, though.

 

[Artyom87]

Roughly equal to winning the EuroMillions lottery three times in a row.

its sad how many people, even very bright ones, misinterpret probability.

Sure, the prob of such an outcome may be one in a million, but you have to look at it from a different perspective. There are million of events/outcomes and each one individually may have one in a trillion chance of outcome. But together, because there are infinitely number of events/outcomes, the chance that a random event would regularly happen is basically a fact.

In EU, pretty much every time you play, some outcomes may be considered as almost impossible-one-in-a-trillion-chance, but such outcomes still happen, every game you play

edit: and I may have exxagurated or underestimated the number of admin failures i got because I didnt count. A more precise estimation would be 12-40

 

[ChildeR]

its sad how many people, even very bright ones, misinterpret probability.

That was a deliberate hyperbole, though literally true. My point was that the exact number was probably wrong, if it was off the top of your head. It's human to remember extreme events and to remember them as even more extreme.

Then again, while one in a million things happen all the time in a game where hundreds of things are going on, one in an octillion probability is something else.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

Just confirmation bias or bad luck. The luck would have to be extraordinarily bad, though, so most likely you are also misremembering. 30 administration failures is the exact maximum you can get in 150 years (assuming you can select the idea group before the first five your pulse). The probability of that is at most 1/6**30 (assuming you don't select a second idea group or match the trigger conditions of the other 5 admin events, then it's even lower). Roughly equal to winning the EuroMillions lottery three times in a row.

I crunched the numbers in his other thread. Going ADM idea and buying 4 techs @ Nomad and taking -3 stab on independence DoW costs several thousand ADM by itself...the majority of what an ADM 3 ruler the entire time could have. Mongolia doesn't start with an ADM 3 ruler or heir. One or two more bad leader rolls explains his ADM tech outright; the stabhits thing seems like an implausible exaggeration.