Good evening/night/morning/day 
.
A thought came to me last night. Why didn't the Incan Imperial family suffer more casualties from smallpox ?
1: The Sapa Incas frequently married their sisters and half sisters.
2: Long term effects of inbreeding is a loss of genetic variation which makes all members of the inbred group vunerable to the same diseases.
3: Three close family members at least died from smallpox, Sapa Inca Huayna Capac, (Sapa Inca ?) Ninan Cuyochi and Sapa Inca Túpac Huallpa.
I do not have a full family tree of the family (I suspect there is much more information than I have buried somewhere on the internet or in books about them) but assuming that the ancestors of the three mentioned and others had married brother to sister for generations their DNA should be largely the same and since those three did die from smallpox its likely that other family members had the same vulnerability. Why didn't f.e. Sapa Inca Manco Inca Yupanqui, who rebelled against the Spanish and began an resistance that lasted for 40 years, die of smallpox like his full brothers, father (and uncle ?, 1st cousin once removed ? 2nd cousin twice removed ?). Why didn't the Incan imperial family fall down like flies, since they had so similar DNA and a few of them fell victim to it ?
I can think of a few explanations.
a) They weren't as inbred you think Olvirki: I am limited to PDFs and the internet (should have bought a book on the Incas and/or pre-Columbian Andes a long time ago), and I have not found out how the relationship was between the parents of Ninan, Túpac and Manco or their grandparents and so on. Was their mother the sister of their father ? Half sister ? Not related ? What about their grandmother ?
b) Its a matter of position: Huayna, Ninan and Túpac were at the wrong place and the wrong time, and therefor contracted smallpox. Manco Inca Yupanqui and others would have died if they were in their place. Those three didn't die from the same outbreak though. Túpac died some years later while he was the puppet ruler for the Spanish. Why didn't Manco Inca Yupanqui die in his time in Cuzco (btw, where was he when Túpac contracted smallpox and died?) or when smallpox struck the army he had sieging Cuzco ?
c) Environmental factors: Some envirormental factors left the three unlucky weaker than (f.e.?) Manco Inca Yupanqui and thus caused their deaths.
d) Somone was having an affair: F.e., maybe Manco Inca Yupanqui mom had an affair which gave him that good gene which led to a 40 year long revolt.
e) Randomness in genetics or epigentics (or general randomness): The family members weren't as related as one might expect, because of a chance. Chance Manco Inca Yupanqui might have given him the resistance he needed.
f) ? I swear I had another explanation but forgot.
Now, what would the effects be if all the Manco Inca Yupanqui and all his fullblooded siplings that survived smallpox had died ? It really depends on when they die. If they all die at the same time as Ninan and Huayna Capac, then the Incas might actually but off more of a resistance/had better luck. Huáscar would have been among the dead, and his half brother Atahualpa, who may have inherited a resistance from Atahualpa's mother, may have been unopposed as Sapa Inca.
I find that scenario to be unlikely though. More likely would be that we have a civil war like we did in our history and but then they full blooded siblings of Ninan die one by one, most after the Spaniards arrive. This leads to greater lack of a Sapa Inca candidate (and fewer rebellion leaders if the Spaniards manage gain control over the Inca empire like they did), although Huayna had sons with many women, and some of them may have been unrelated to him, increasing the life expectancy of these sons. If the Spaniards manage to capture the Sapa Inca like they did in real life or otherwise capture Cuzco this might lower the chance of revolts. If the former ruling family is unexplainably dying at the same time as a conqueror has arrived, I wouldn't find it very strange if people assumed that the gods were signaling a regime change.
I will end my speculation here. Don't focus too much on the possible effects, I am more interested in my original question.
.A thought came to me last night. Why didn't the Incan Imperial family suffer more casualties from smallpox ?
1: The Sapa Incas frequently married their sisters and half sisters.
2: Long term effects of inbreeding is a loss of genetic variation which makes all members of the inbred group vunerable to the same diseases.
3: Three close family members at least died from smallpox, Sapa Inca Huayna Capac, (Sapa Inca ?) Ninan Cuyochi and Sapa Inca Túpac Huallpa.
I do not have a full family tree of the family (I suspect there is much more information than I have buried somewhere on the internet or in books about them) but assuming that the ancestors of the three mentioned and others had married brother to sister for generations their DNA should be largely the same and since those three did die from smallpox its likely that other family members had the same vulnerability. Why didn't f.e. Sapa Inca Manco Inca Yupanqui, who rebelled against the Spanish and began an resistance that lasted for 40 years, die of smallpox like his full brothers, father (and uncle ?, 1st cousin once removed ? 2nd cousin twice removed ?). Why didn't the Incan imperial family fall down like flies, since they had so similar DNA and a few of them fell victim to it ?
I can think of a few explanations.
a) They weren't as inbred you think Olvirki: I am limited to PDFs and the internet (should have bought a book on the Incas and/or pre-Columbian Andes a long time ago), and I have not found out how the relationship was between the parents of Ninan, Túpac and Manco or their grandparents and so on. Was their mother the sister of their father ? Half sister ? Not related ? What about their grandmother ?
b) Its a matter of position: Huayna, Ninan and Túpac were at the wrong place and the wrong time, and therefor contracted smallpox. Manco Inca Yupanqui and others would have died if they were in their place. Those three didn't die from the same outbreak though. Túpac died some years later while he was the puppet ruler for the Spanish. Why didn't Manco Inca Yupanqui die in his time in Cuzco (btw, where was he when Túpac contracted smallpox and died?) or when smallpox struck the army he had sieging Cuzco ?
c) Environmental factors: Some envirormental factors left the three unlucky weaker than (f.e.?) Manco Inca Yupanqui and thus caused their deaths.
d) Somone was having an affair: F.e., maybe Manco Inca Yupanqui mom had an affair which gave him that good gene which led to a 40 year long revolt.
e) Randomness in genetics or epigentics (or general randomness): The family members weren't as related as one might expect, because of a chance. Chance Manco Inca Yupanqui might have given him the resistance he needed.
f) ? I swear I had another explanation but forgot.
Now, what would the effects be if all the Manco Inca Yupanqui and all his fullblooded siplings that survived smallpox had died ? It really depends on when they die. If they all die at the same time as Ninan and Huayna Capac, then the Incas might actually but off more of a resistance/had better luck. Huáscar would have been among the dead, and his half brother Atahualpa, who may have inherited a resistance from Atahualpa's mother, may have been unopposed as Sapa Inca.
I find that scenario to be unlikely though. More likely would be that we have a civil war like we did in our history and but then they full blooded siblings of Ninan die one by one, most after the Spaniards arrive. This leads to greater lack of a Sapa Inca candidate (and fewer rebellion leaders if the Spaniards manage gain control over the Inca empire like they did), although Huayna had sons with many women, and some of them may have been unrelated to him, increasing the life expectancy of these sons. If the Spaniards manage to capture the Sapa Inca like they did in real life or otherwise capture Cuzco this might lower the chance of revolts. If the former ruling family is unexplainably dying at the same time as a conqueror has arrived, I wouldn't find it very strange if people assumed that the gods were signaling a regime change.
I will end my speculation here. Don't focus too much on the possible effects, I am more interested in my original question
.
Last edited:
