Watch this map:
- at 1sep before kiew, germans had in south the best possible to defend line in 1941 possible.
- in north, germans were in the last line of "friendly" territory.
FIRST part:
The order from OKH was now to switch central, 400km from moskau away, and this order wasn't given at first 1.september.
Am 19. Juli 1941 befahl Hitler trotz Protesten von Halder und von Brauchitsch mit der Weisung Nr. 33 die Reduzierung der HG Mitte, welche Panzerkräfte an die HG Nord und HG Süd abgeben musste. Hintergrund war eine Konzentration auf die Ziele
Leningrad und die rohstoffreiche
Ukraine.
In english, at the 19.juli, after the battle of Jelnja the 16.juli, Hitler gave order against the generals in charge, to reduce the army in mid to support the arny north and south.
It stopped every big advance and pushing until the 2.october and the start of Taifun. Simply spoken, it gave the soviets 6 weeks to dig in the 400km between smolensk and moskau.
At the same time, the groups which gone south and north, traveled the distance smolensk- kiew 500km, 100km less than to moskau.
They got this troops back for the 2.10 taifun operation, so this support troops traveled 1000km in 6 weeks from smolensk to kiew and back....with all the pressure on the support lines.
SECOND Part:
possible counteroffensive at kiew:
the 500k troops, if they wanted to push against central, would open at the same moment they flank alongeside the DNEPR, and would open army group south to counterattack them. And armygroup south "would" stay in a very good situtaion to defend along side of the river for the rest of 1941. If the russian could or could not pressure from the south a attack on moskau is from this map hard to belief.
Third part:
Die Mitte Oktober einsetzende Schlammperiode mit den aufgeweichten Wegen und Straßen erwies sich bald als wirksamer Helfer der Sowjetunion im Kampf gegen die Wehrmacht. Der Nachschub der an den Angriffsoperationen unmittelbar beteiligten Divisionen sank schlagartig von 900 Tonnen täglich auf nur noch rund 20 Tonnen.
Your supply problem: Operation Taifun run 2 weeks after start in october in more or less in a no supply situation, but not because of enemy army pressure on the roads, the run into trouble simply through the weather, the bad infastructre in russia with non asphalt roads. (which germans didn't know from rest of europe) brought them high troupble in the supply roads. In my opion it was the moment germans had to cancel taifun...but they didn't, lucky for russia, and that is the resaon why Order 33 was the biggest german mistake in 1941.
Order 33 coast the german 6 weeks with good roads for supply. 6 Weeks they needed for moskau.
This changed from the 3. November and the frost period, when supply roads opened again, but germans needed 2 more weeks to bring new to supply to frontline. Or simply, there fall advantage were done with 4 weeks with horrible supply, compare to a focus armygroup centrel at 19.07 to 02.10. periode. 6 weeks wasted, plus 4 weeks bad supply from mid october to mid november are already 10weeks for soviets to dig in at moskau.
Fourth part,
10 weeks gain for soviets compare to kiew and leingrad.
You number kiew + lenigrad, 500k POW south, 100k POW in north.
Now check soviets defence gains from 19.juli to 30.november 1941 between smolensk and moskau.
At 14 to 17. oct . 663.000 POW at
Wjasma and Brjansk, followed up with a mass panic in moskau between 16-18 oct.
This battle would been happen without order 33 6 weeks earlier, and it was more or less last battle in TAIFUN with good supply. 6 weeks earlier means 1.sep.1941. or still 6 weeks left with good supply. MY problem with this battle, it was a follow up battle from kiew. without kiew, you can say this battle would happen even 2 weeks more early., at mid august 1941
on the 1.oct leand and lease from UK was fixed in moskau (at this time 200km away from frontline), if they would have pushed to moskau directly, leand and lease would never support the battle of moskau
Far eastern soviet army group: the far eastern soviet army group got ther march order from vladivostok to muskau in mid august. they had to bypass 8000km and they done 750km per day. so we can say they needed 2 weeks to moskau and reached it at beginning of september. total number 700k. which now had to reoganize to be effectivly.
So germans had still a 2 week window, were moskau was mostly unprotected.
At 30.nov soviets had at moskau following numbers:
1.060.000 soilder
700 tanks and increased arterlery (no ecact number)
1.400 airplanes.
Without ORder 33, germans would be at
Chimki, theere furtherst advance to moskau at 2.dez roughly 8 weeks earlier. or simply at the 2.sep.1941. or more or less the same date the gsoviet far east army reached moskau.
We would now have the situation, that germans had still a 6 weeks window with good supply, and russian had to send all there troops immediatly to defence moskau.
I simply say, with the experience from the war post 22.jun to 2.dez 1941, the germans would have encircled and POW all soviet defender at moskau if they would have reached Chimki between 2.sep and end of sep, with 2 weeks rest of good supply window.
And the soviets had an no of there border enough troops to cut of the central advance, because kiew could be stqalemate from south, and north could protect the north.
ORDER 33 from Hitler at 19.jul. 1941, cost germans the advantage at the east front they got through surprise BArbarossa.