Why Chiang Kai Shek event does not happen when I play as Soviets?

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Hamulus

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May 30, 2020
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I need Chiang Kai Shek event to trigger war between China and Communist China. Usually it happens around 5-10 May 1937. But sometimes I see "Chinese United front forms" instead. No Chiang Kai Shek event at all.
Can some my action as Soviet player may affect on this? I tried to make experiments but I have not found any dependence.

I have game save at 1st January 1937. If I make an experiment and do nothing, no new researches, no national focuses, etc: the event happens. But If I do my stuff CUF is being formed without asking me.
Or It is totally random and it is my cognitive isslusion?:)