Why 1939 usage is a bad metric to judge interest in additional start dates

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hkrommel

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I've repeatedly heard low player usage of the 1939 start date as justification for the decision to not include other start dates. While I certainly am not a part of Paradox's long-term strategy discussions, I sincerely hope they don't take that sentiment too seriously because it's simply a bad way to prove the point. Allow me to elaborate.

1. What is the appeal of the 1936 start date vs. the 1939 start date?

Starting earlier allows players much more control over prewar buildup, how one progresses through the focus tree, and in general allows the player more latitude to shape the country they're playing as, including along ahistorical paths. More time allows for more familiarity with the OOB, the industrial capabilities of one's country, and better long-term planning. There are other reasons for the 1936 start date being the most popular, but those are largely variations on the player options element.

2. What would be the appeal of start dates earlier than 1936?

Basically the appeal of 1936, but more so. There are obvious drawbacks to earlier start dates, such as monstrous focus trees, potentially long periods of doing nothing, the overhaul of various realms of mechanics to make such a start date viable, etc. However, such things could be done and an earlier start date has been discussed ad nauseam in the past weeks, so the crux of this thread is more that the reluctance to play 1939 does not translate into reluctance to playing 1935, 1934, or 1933 start dates. The advantages of 1936, the most popular start date, would be more greatly felt in 1935 and so on. Sure there's some balance involved, but again the point of this thread is not to discuss the viability of those start dates.

3. What would be the appeal of start dates later than 1939?

The appeal of later start dates, which I played frequently in earlier HOI games (usually the 1943 and 1944 dates) is twofold.

1. Historical play. We all know there is a sharp divide between people who want more focused historical play, and people who want tons of alternate history options. Personally I think both have their place, and later start dates allow for historical situations, tech progression, troop disposition, etc. Later starts allow you to play the Battle of Kursk, blunt the Axis offensive at the Battle of the Bulge, or pull a stunning come-from-behind victory as Japan playing against its historical disadvantaged position. Games played from 1936 or even 1939 almost never relate to the historical situation at a corresponding date, so later start dates allow this to happen to some extent.

2. Challenge. Right now the game is an absolute breeze unless one arbitrarily buffs the AI. It's far too easy to avoid Germany's historical mistakes (indeed one needs to try to make mistakes to replicate the historical situation). Similarly, playing as the Soviets I've not once had to move my industry east. Later start dates allow a player to put him or herself in the shoes of the Soviets clinging to Stalingrad in 1942, or the Germans desperately trying to regain the initiative at Kursk. I can't express how much I enjoyed earlier HOI games' late starts simply because of the challenge they posed, and my most memorable games started after 1939.

4. Why is 1939 seldom used as a starting point?

It has none of the advantages of earlier starts (ahistorical options, buildup to the war), and none of the advantages of the later starts (challenge isn't really there unless you're Poland or France, and the historical situation is uncomplicated). It's the jack of no trades. I personally never used it in previous HOI games, and I don't recall using it once in HOI4.

5. Why is the low usage of 1939 not a good data point to prove that players don't want more start dates?

See the previous points. Since it has none of the appeal that both earlier and later starts would have, reluctance to use 1939 doesn't translate into reluctance to use other potential start dates. It's all detriment but no benefit (unless one is interested in playing Poland against impossible odds). As such, it doesn't show that people don't want start dates other than 1936, all it shows is that people don't want to play a 1939 start date.

What should Paradox do about this? Nothing, for now. The game has much larger issues that need to be resolved.

However, down the line there should be some serious consideration of adding later starts. Some mods are currently making an admirable effort but the fact is that for compatibility and other reasons, Paradox is the best equipped to at least provide the baseline for new start dates. I would gladly buy a DLC that consists of new start dates.
 
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Ironside121

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Later start dates are mostly covered by mods in a few cases.

Earlier start dates would be cooler, but can you really reduce factories in nations even further? Also there's the question of how far back to go? Going too far back means you can easily stomp out Germany using any League of Nations mechanics they put in the game for it- which they should, even event chains.

I would like earlier start games but it's just not what HoI is designed around. There's too much pre-war build up if we go back sooner and balancing everything can be a right pain in the ass. It's way too much work and I'd rather they actually make the game good, instead of us keeping this shallow, pathetically easy mess the game is right now.
 

ringhloth

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I'd believe you if this was an issue only in HoI4, but it isn't. It affects every PDS game with start dates, and also affected HoI3. If Paradox added more start dates, it would be a great deal of research for a benefit that maybe 5-10% of playthroughs would see. If that. Might as well give Nepal a national focus tree.
 

hkrommel

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I'd believe you if this was an issue only in HoI4, but it isn't. It affects every PDS game with start dates, and also affected HoI3. If Paradox added more start dates, it would be a great deal of research for a benefit that maybe 5-10% of playthroughs would see. If that. Might as well give Nepal a national focus tree.

Do you have a citation for HOI3 stats? I was roughly 50/50 on 1936 vs. non-1936 starts.

Later start dates are mostly covered by mods in a few cases.

Some mods are currently making an admirable effort but the fact is that for compatibility and other reasons, Paradox is the best equipped to at least provide the baseline for new start dates.

Earlier start dates would be cooler, but can you really reduce factories in nations even further? Also there's the question of how far back to go? Going too far back means you can easily stomp out Germany using any League of Nations mechanics they put in the game for it- which they should, even event chains.

an earlier start date has been discussed ad nauseam in the past weeks, so the crux of this thread is more that the reluctance to play 1939 does not translate into reluctance to playing 1935, 1934, or 1933 start dates.

Once again, the point is that the argument that 1939's unpopularity=people won't play non-'36 start dates is wrong. It's not about implementation, that's something for down the road.
 

Pigeoncount

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This isn't just HOI4, they've stated that their stats for their other games show that multiple start dates rarely get used, only the first one available sees major use. I'm having trouble finding the threads for them, but I recall them claiming a non-1444 start in EU4 or non-earliest available start in CK2 almost never happens (I think those numbers were in the single digits, but can't find them). Multiple start dates just aren't very popular, I think it's better territory for modders than the actual developers.
 

KalypsoKirin

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This isn't just HOI4, they've stated that their stats for their other games show that multiple start dates rarely get used, only the first one available sees major use. I'm having trouble finding the threads for them, but I recall them claiming a non-1444 start in EU4 or non-earliest available start in CK2 almost never happens (I think those numbers were in the single digits, but can't find them). Multiple start dates just aren't very popular, I think it's better territory for modders than the actual developers.
I use all the CK2 start dates I have pretty evenly.
I like to experience different eras of history, and often end my games after only a few hours of play, and rarely return for a long "grand campaign"
 

hkrommel

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This isn't just HOI4, they've stated that their stats for their other games show that multiple start dates rarely get used, only the first one available sees major use. I'm having trouble finding the threads for them, but I recall them claiming a non-1444 start in EU4 or non-earliest available start in CK2 almost never happens (I think those numbers were in the single digits, but can't find them). Multiple start dates just aren't very popular, I think it's better territory for modders than the actual developers.

At the end of the day it isn't about whether most, or even a substantial portion, of the players use those start dates. It's whether enough players do that would justify the work that goes into them. I think there's enough demand to justify development of new start dates down the road, and depending on how much it costs to make them I think it could be worth it. However, without more data it's pointless to debate that, so I'll just stick to my statement that I would buy a DLC with more start dates.
 

Pigeoncount

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I use all the CK2 start dates I have pretty evenly.
I like to experience different eras of history, and often end my games after only a few hours of play, and rarely return for a long "grand campaign"
That puts you in the minority of players, if memory serves. For every start in one of the other start dates, 99 others use the first date available.

At the end of the day it isn't about whether most, or even a substantial portion, of the players use those start dates. It's whether enough players do that would justify the work that goes into them. I think there's enough demand to justify development of new start dates down the road, and depending on how much it costs to make them I think it could be worth it. However, without more data it's pointless to debate that, so I'll just stick to my statement that I would buy a DLC with more start dates.

I did find one example, while I am still looking for the actual player telemetry when it was shared (it was years ago now, I think), I did find one official mention for CK2 which puts all the earliest start dates (769, 867, which are locked to DLC, and then 1066 which is the default) as the most popular ones. The fourth most popular start date is NONE of the ones found in the actual game, but actually the start date for the AGOT mod. The other start dates see less use than a modded start date. I did find other people referring to the old telemetry, which they claimed the other start dates saw literally less than one percent use, but they sadly don't link back to it.
 

Black_Shade

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I'd believe you if this was an issue only in HoI4, but it isn't. It affects every PDS game with start dates, and also affected HoI3. If Paradox added more start dates, it would be a great deal of research for a benefit that maybe 5-10% of playthroughs would see. If that. Might as well give Nepal a national focus tree.

The research idea might fly if they didn't already do it- there's tons of alternate start dates for HoI2/3, implying that the research for most of the import things (troop, aircraft, fleet locations, industrial output, tech research) is done and was done years ago. The time consuming part would be the map and decided what focuses would be completed by X date.
 
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myzael

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For each an every PDS game that has multiple startdates, 90% or more players choose the earliest one. It doesn't make any business sense to put development time into later dates, I'd even go as far as to say it would be beneficial for PDS to remove the '39 start.

And for earlier dates, you have to realise making a '33 or '30 start means re-doing the game from the scratch in the content design part (OOBs, NF trees, political setup) and a need for many, many more peace time mechanics in the programming/design part. Practically a new game. Not going to happen, especially when there are acute deficiencies in the game right now, that need improvements (not that the game isn't enjoyable already).
 

Alex_brunius

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It's easy, if later start dates were popular there would be an abundance with popular quality mods that would top the workshop frequently.

To my knowledge this isn't the case.
 

Lord of Beer

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Paradox need to fix the game lag caused by all the crappy micronations before they look at earlier start dates. Why should El Salvador have the same capabilities and CPU usage as the USA (when El Salvador pumps out 300 useless 6 width divisions)?

I would like to see irrelevant nations like Tibet, El Salvador etc. reduced to 'micronation' status, where they can have a maximum of only 4 divisions of a certain width, limited focus tree etc - railroaded to any extent necessary to save CPU. Of course if played by a human those restrictions could just be unlocked.
 

Nimic

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I did find one example, while I am still looking for the actual player telemetry when it was shared (it was years ago now, I think), I did find one official mention for CK2 which puts all the earliest start dates (769, 867, which are locked to DLC, and then 1066 which is the default) as the most popular ones. The fourth most popular start date is NONE of the ones found in the actual game, but actually the start date for the AGOT mod. The other start dates see less use than a modded start date. I did find other people referring to the old telemetry, which they claimed the other start dates saw literally less than one percent use, but they sadly don't link back to it.

And 867/1066 being popular start dates despite not being the first start date is easily explained by the fact that 1066 was the original first start date, followed by 867 and then finally 769. They have the feel of an early start. If the game started at 769 right out of the box, I bet it would be by far the most popular.
 

Louella

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I am wondering if the steam achievements affect things at all. I think most achievements require the 1936 start date to have been selected.

Or things like Germany being the most played country. Does them being selected by default affect that statistic ?

And the 1936 start date is placed on the left so when people are reading the screen in most languages it's the first one they'll see.

How much do these UI things affect player choice ?
 

safe-keeper

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The only alternative start date I really want is a Barbarossa scenario where the game starts either on, or a day or two before, the invasion of the Soviet Union is Germany.

I understand the desire for more start dates, but while I appreciated having them in HOI3, I have to admit that I, like almost everyone else, virtually never used them. It just didn't feel as fun to play with forces the game had handed to me, rather than building up myself from 1936.

An earlier start date than 36 would be interesting, but then the devs would have to painstakingly expand focus trees and balance the game to account for players steadily building up their armies from the start date to the beginning of the war. I don't see that happening any time soon.
 

huyderman

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Another difference in CK2, which may explain why more people choose not just the 769, but also 867 and 1066, is the fact that the map is significantly different in the various bookmarks, with realms, characters, cultures and religions simply unavailable in other bookmarks. In HOI, starting later would simply mean you have less time to prepare and have fewer options before the war starts.
 

balmung60

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I have no doubt that a pre 1936 start would see a lot of use, and would almost certainly become the most used start, as players default to "more play years is always better".

However, I see no reason to believe that a later start date would see any more use than 1939.
 

Aeon221

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The only future start date that would make sense would be 1945 after WW2.

1948 on the date of the signing of the Brussels treaty (NATO precursor) would be better. Everyone would have demobilized by that point so you can start people off with lower industry count, and you can further lower US industry by kicking off the Marshall plan (big consumer goods hit, expands NATO and improves industry of all members). Then there's the Berlin airlift and first Soviet nuclear test and some other stuff going on followed by the kickoff of the Korean War in 1950. Extend the time line to 1960 (aka 12 years from 48, same as the 36 to 48 of the 36 start) and you're good.

Bonus points for a French unit equipped with Panthers.