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Russia, without a doubt, especially if you're invading from the east. Even if you rule Yeren, By the time you reach Omsk, at least two winters will already have passed. Plus, that manpower...
From my current TO -> Baltic Crusader -> Prussian -> A Fine Goosestep -> Germany run (trying to form Germany currently)
France with an integrated Castile formed from a PU (Colonies and all!) with borders stretching to Pisa, and allied to the Pope!
Just managed to win an indirect war with that beast - but annoying couldn't release Castile as I would have needed 100% warscore (58% after occupying all of mainland Europe) and a fort on the Canaries.... the Prussian fleet cannot match a combined BBB/Castile fleet!
It's 20% inf CA, 5% disc later, and 5% morale from events, I believe. Hardly that brutal. I think they take offensive early? Could be misremembering. What's annoying (IMO) is they get tons of manpower and recovery, and some cost reduction, which means I never see them stop building new armies and continuing a fight.
I've only seen Ming split apart once ever. However I did see them bordering Russia and PLC many times when I started playing this game three months ago when I had no idea what I was doing.