Germany, in order to see if WW2 can be fight as an axis minor without seeing Germany doing crazy stuff. I plan to let Italy managing her home defence also to see if there's some progress in this area.
If what I see is promising, I'll probably try an ally, UK with low intervention before 1940, cause for now I never had a good game with allies. Always win in 1940 if not before.
If Germany appear to be a challenge to fight, I'll make a game with SU.
If this 3 games show me that WW2 can be managed by all the 3 alliances without all the crazy stuff that happen actually, I'll start consider playing a minor.
edit : I must confess that what can be see in the two last WWW is not promising