Where does the Reformation start?

[Universitas Christiana]

Hi there!

I am looking for the calculations the game does in order to decide where the reform starts.
I found this: https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/Protestant_events#cite_ref-3

However, I find it a bit confusing... You get ×8 possibilities if you are Iberian and the Papacy is not in the HRE? Huh, but it never happened to me that the reformation started in Navarre or anything...

Does anybody know the whole set of rules applied for this?

Thanks!

 

[moscal]

Higher multiplier mean "lesser chances on firestart".

"Mean time to happen (MTTH) is a measure of how much time it takes, on average, for a random event to occur. An MTTH of 90 days, for example, means that after 90 days, the probability of the event having been fired is exactly 50%. The use of the "mean time to happen" value rather than probability allows modders and developers to specify how often they feel an event should occur, independent of the mechanics that make events fire. Thus, it removes the need for calculating probabilities while coding. "

 

[Universitas Christiana]

Higher multiplier mean "lesser chances on firestart".

"Mean time to happen (MTTH) is a measure of how much time it takes, on average, for a random event to occur. An MTTH of 90 days, for example, means that after 90 days, the probability of the event having been fired is exactly 50%. The use of the "mean time to happen" value rather than probability allows modders and developers to specify how often they feel an event should occur, independent of the mechanics that make events fire. Thus, it removes the need for calculating probabilities while coding. "

Thank you!

So, as I see, if you are Iberian and the Pope is not in the HRE, it gets 8 times as usual. But of course, somebody gets it earlier. Right?

So I guess a country which is North/South Germanic, British, Nordic or West Slavic has waaaaaaay more chances to get this event triggered, right? And of course, it's easier if it is not a theocracy, or if this country oaths the Papal States.

Thanks a lot!

Just one question. The Wiki says:

• owns at least 10 cities: ×0.75
• owns at least 2 cities: ×0.75

What does it mean by city here? Provinces?

 

[Cancerofthehead]

Cities are provinces. Also those both would apply, so a tag with ten provinces would multiply the MTTH by .75*.75 =.5625

And Iberia definitely can spawn the reformation. It is quite unlikely to happen due to both the x8 multiplier and the sheer number of German tags. But my Austria game definitely benefitted from a Portuguese centre of reformation making Protestantism easy to deal with.

Looking at that link, Germanic etc cultures are never more likely to trigger it (just less likely if the Pope is in the HRE). But the a German state is most likely to trigger it due to their numbers. 100 German states just get more rolls at it.

 

[Universitas Christiana]

Cities are provinces. Also those both would apply, so a tag with ten provinces would multiply the MTTH by .75*.75 =.5625

And Iberia definitely can spawn the reformation. It is quite unlikely to happen due to both the x8 multiplier and the sheer number of German tags. But my Austria game definitely benefitted from a Portuguese centre of reformation making Protestantism easy to deal with.

Looking at that link, Germanic etc cultures are never more likely to trigger it (just less likely if the Pope is in the HRE). But the a German state is most likely to trigger it due to their numbers. 100 German states just get more rolls at it.

I see... however, I am probably wrong, but I haven't seen very often the Reformation in Austria. I usually see it in mid-sized countries, like Brandenburg, Saxony, Bavaria or so...

Anyway, I guess the best way to avoid the Reformation in Central Europe is ensuring the Kingdom of Italy and forcing the Papal States into the HRE. That way, every German country has a ×2 modifier, and every Iberian/Latin one has a ×0.75 one.

Just to be sure... If I started the game in 1500 instead of 1444, the triggering of the Reformation is extremely imminent, am I wrong?

 

[Heaven Canceler]

My last game it started in Northern Scotland and two of the centres ended up on the British isles when one of the Irish minors converted.. if I remember right.. Northern Germany basically became Reformed only..

 

[Cancerofthehead]

I see... however, I am probably wrong, but I haven't seen very often the Reformation in Austria. I usually see it in mid-sized countries, like Brandenburg, Saxony, Bavaria or so...

Anyway, I guess the best way to avoid the Reformation in Central Europe is ensuring the Kingdom of Italy and forcing the Papal States into the HRE. That way, every German country has a ×2 modifier, and every Iberian/Latin one has a ×0.75 one.

Just to be sure... If I started the game in 1500 instead of 1444, the triggering of the Reformation is extremely imminent, am I wrong?

The reason smaller German tags tend to spawn the Reformation is that there are so many of them.

As a hypothetical example, let’s assume only the number of cities modifiers apply and you have 2 10+ province tags and 50 2-10 province tags.

The MTTH have each large tag is 2250 months so let’s say odds of 0.044% each month (I am not sure if the game does its odds linearly but I am doing it that way for simplicity, it doesn’t impact the concept). This has a 99.91% chance each month that neither triggers the reformation (or a 0.09% chanfe.

For the 50 small tags the MTTH is 3000 months or 0.033% each month. Each tag’s chances of triggering it are a substantially lower than the larger tags. However, the chance that none of them trigger the event is just 98.34% (1.66% of one spawning it) making the large number of tags far more likely to trigger it.

But, again, these are all probabilities so, it certainly would be possible to spawn in a Latin culture OPM with religious ideas while the pope is not in the HRE.

If you want to prevent the reformation from spawning in Central Europe, having the Pope in the HRE is important. But the most effective way would be to eat up as many small German tags as possible and facilitating other HRE members to do the same. Of course that is presumably the opposite of what you want to do so may not be an option.

 

[Atomcreator]

What's th best way of getting the pope in the hre ?

 

[Cancerofthehead]

What's th best way of getting the pope in the hre ?

Either:

Conquer Rome, core it, add it to the HRE, return it to the Pope, and (if the capita doesn’t go back automatically) then conquer his capital to force it back to Rome.

Or get enough reforms to get the Expand Empire CB and use it on the Pope.

I doubt you will get the Pope feeling threatened enough to willingly join.

 

[Universitas Christiana]

The reason smaller German tags tend to spawn the Reformation is that there are so many of them.

As a hypothetical example, let’s assume only the number of cities modifiers apply and you have 2 10+ province tags and 50 2-10 province tags.

The MTTH have each large tag is 2250 months so let’s say odds of 0.044% each month (I am not sure if the game does its odds linearly but I am doing it that way for simplicity, it doesn’t impact the concept). This has a 99.91% chance each month that neither triggers the reformation (or a 0.09% chanfe.

For the 50 small tags the MTTH is 3000 months or 0.033% each month. Each tag’s chances of triggering it are a substantially lower than the larger tags. However, the chance that none of them trigger the event is just 98.34% (1.66% of one spawning it) making the large number of tags far more likely to trigger it.

But, again, these are all probabilities so, it certainly would be possible to spawn in a Latin culture OPM with religious ideas while the pope is not in the HRE.

If you want to prevent the reformation from spawning in Central Europe, having the Pope in the HRE is important. But the most effective way would be to eat up as many small German tags as possible and facilitating other HRE members to do the same. Of course that is presumably the opposite of what you want to do so may not be an option.

Thank you very much. Very well explained, now I understand. It is a very clever system, to be honest.