When will this civil war start? Any specific percentage?

[Legocity264]

The Backstory:
I'm playing Non-Aligned Romania to get the Death or Dishonor or Cake Achievement. I won against the USSR in late 1941, and claimed all the cores I needed except those of Bulgaria and Slovakia, which I pupetted. I then realized that Italy and German were boosted Fascist support in my country, but their bonuses are so huge that Anti-Fascist Raids and Press Censorship together still can't stop them. I need to stay Non-Aligned to get the achievement. I annexed Bulgaria though the autonomy system, and am 168 PP away from annexing Slovakia, which has the Czechoslovakian core I need. At the current rate of PP production, I still need 118 days before I can annex it for the achievement. I just got the referendum pop-up event that gave me the option to switch to fascist, but I declined and selected the "This will all blow over" option. Fascist popularity is at 60%, and Non-Aligned is at 31%.

The Question:
Is there a specific percentage of party popularity that triggers an unintentional civil war? How long do I have until it happens?

My game as it currently stands:

 

[Bjewwe]

Banning Fascist party removes the modifier, ie the National Spirit.

I don't know for sure, but I think you are on the brink of civil war. Pretty sure that you should get a referendum decision when you pass 60% for another ideology than the one in power. If you reject that decision, civil war will trigger slightly after that.

 

[Legocity264]

It would be a shame to lose all my trained divisions if I had to delete them for a civil war. Additionally, how much of my country would go to the rebels in the case of a civil war? I know it's based on party popularity, but is it only restricted to your starting cores? Or will my entire annexed empire (which stretches from Greece to Stalingrad) be divided up based on Fascist popularity?