By that metric, and going by the
Basics: Combat trailer, this game should get over 600k is sales, huh.
View on YT can only be used to gauge general interest and not sales figures. Having said that, we can use some existing numbers to make some educated guesses.
*below is pure speculation and conjectures*
Using SM as an example (yes, it's not turn based or action but it is slow paced and an original, non-grand strategy title at $40) we can see a trailer views of 6m (x5 of BT's trailer) and consistent 200-300k on paradoxextra and other youtube channels that cover strategy games. However, reviews are mixed across steam and gog. Total sales from steam spy is just over 100k after the first week.
On the flip side, HOI/EU IV both have very positive reviews, over 1m/1.5m copies sold respectively and their DLCs trailers have views count is consistent with ownership numbers. Paradox really does have a consistent core of supporters.
My guess is that given the current level of marketing drive, if BT has a generally positive review on launch, they will achieve 250k (including the 60k backers) units in the initial launch weeks and, maybe with the help of a DLC, reach 500-750k by the end of xmas sales cycle. A bad review could very well restrict them to 250k units total.
I hope HBS is confident enough to have a press copy available for the reviewers a wk before release.