What's wrong with this event?

[Varning]

Basically, I'm tired of seeing the Seljuks conquer the Byzantine Empire and become an anachronistic Ottoman analogue. What I tried to do was write an event so that if BYZA and SELJ were at war, and BYZA's capital came under siege, they would peace out. There is probably a better way to do this, but here's how I've been trying it:

character_event = {
    id = 200115

    picture = "event_intrigue"

    trigger = {
        condition = { type = ai }
        condition = { type = ruler }
        condition = { type = atwar }
        condition = { type = title value = BYZA }
        condition = { type = title value = C496 }
        condition = { type = religion value = orthodox }
        condition = { type = any_enemy
            condition = { type = title value = SELJ }
        }
        condition = { type = capital
            condition = { type = is_besieged }
        }
        condition = { type = not value = { type = year value = 1275 } }
    }

    mean_time_to_happen = {
        days = 15

        modifier = {
            condition = { type = year value = 1200 }
            factor = 2
        }
    }

    action_a = {
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = peace value = not_same_religion }
        effect = { type = prestige value = -50 }
        effect = { type = gold value = -500 }
        effect = { type = add_trait value = realm_duress }
    }
}

However, it doesn't seem to be firing, and I'm not sure where I've made a mistake. I don't get the typical error message that comes up when a [ is missing. Any help?

 

[jordarkelf]

At first glance it looks to be okay. Can you try to fire it from the console with the owner of BYZA selected, while his province is under siege by the Turk?
It will print some useful info.

 

[Varning]

Huh, when manually fired from the console it works and read:

~~~

charevent 200115
dayly chance = 0.04516 mtth = 15.00 days

~~~

However, I if I dont fire it and just siege the castle then it doesn't seem to go off. I've given it like 3 months, saw the ai do a siege for like a year without it firing in another game.

 

[Varning]

Set the mtth to 1 month, effectively the same result. Event doesn't go off on its own but will if I fire it manually. Any idea what's up with this?