What's the point of sub-20 autocannons?

[scJazz]

The best part about the smaller autocannons is beating the whole game with them, when everyone is saying you couldn't possibly....

I was scrolling through this thread waiting for this post.

 

[Icewraith]

Do these numbers take into account hit roll corrections? Those do things like try to break streaks, and move probabilities like 95% that are close to 0(%) or 1(00%) closer to those ends. So e.g. 95% hit chances are more like 98%. I'm not sure how, if at all, hit roll correction plays into called shot probabilities.

No, this is assuming there’s no behind-the-scenes fudging.

I’m fairly certain there’s no fudging, otherwise my 95% AC/20 shot wouldn’t have missed that Demolisher last night, which moved next and dished out a considerable amount of pain.

Coolant Vent on a Marauder-type build with ++ damage weaponry (and maybe a big heat bank) seems potentially strong as a long-range sniper/headshotter.

 

[Apocal]

On paper. I mean, all that armor and dual AC/20s with the backup of a Large Laser and LRM 15 make the KGC look pretty terrifying. But in reality a KGC tends to be easily outmaneuvered and killed at range, or have its torsos ripped open to expose that juicy ammo. Add how knockdowns are easier on the tabletop . . . in the HBS game it can be easily guaranteed to keep it on the ground, out of range, and generally a pinata to take apart for salvage. The Atlas is actually scarier, due to its weaponry being a little better protected and varied.

Now, the Swayback 4P is not much better. The HBK-4P tends to not focus its lasers in one spot, so it more "sandblasts" armor off. It also can be out maneuvered due to its slow speed, and if picked apart from the right-hand side it will start losing most of its arsenal like a GRF-1N. If you can help all its lasers hit the same spot, or if you're going in through rear armor, this isn't as big of an issue. But again - it's slow, and if it does get a back shot it's because someone let it happen.

Every introtech mech with ammo is vulnerable to having its armor torn into and being destroyed outright, so it isn't really a point against a KGC, except insofar as the KGC actually has ammo. The HBK-4P is something I learned from other (TT) players is seen as slightly cheesy, because of its singular focus towards killing mechs, sinking most of its alpha-strike and not having any ammo. It kinda surprised me, considering that it isn't that much damage once you consider the location scattering of 8x MLas, but 100% mech-killing is frowned upon on the TT.

Are you generally at short range or long range? I find that my short range weapons may not have trouble getting in range, but suffer significant accuracy penalties compared to longer range weapons.

Well, I was talking about this game, HBS BTech, so generally at short range. I use called shots to make up for the range penalty.

 

[Doctor Machete]

Headshot damage tiers:

(The lowest damage single shot weapon that will decapitate a mech in N hits)

No DR:
1 hit: AC/10++ damage
2 hits: Medium Laser++ Damage
3 hits: Medium Laser
4 hits: Small Laser

20% DR
1 hit: AC/20 (any)
2 hits: Large Laser (any)
3 hits: Medium Laser+ Damage
4 hits: Medium Laser

40% DR
1 hit: AC/20+ Damage (110 Damage)
2 hits: PPC+ Damage (55 damage)
3 hits: Medium Laser++ Damage (35 Damage)
4 hits: Medium Laser+ Damage (30 Damage)

60% DR:
2 hits: AC/20 (any)
3 hits: PPC+ Damage (55 damage)
4 hits: Large Laser (any)

Chance of at least one Headshot for N shots with called shot mastery: (95% hit chance, 16% head hit chance)

1: 15% (about 2 in 13)
2: 28% (about 2 in 7)
3: 39% (about 2 in 5)
4: 48% (almost, but not quite, 1 in 2)
5: 56%
6: 62%
7: 68%
8: 73%
10: 81%
13: 88%

Chance of at least two headshots under same conditions:

2: 2%
3: 6%
4: 11%
5: 17%
6: 22%
7: 29%

Does the AC/5++ damage exist? It may just be poor luck but I can’t recall having seen one.

So it turns out PPC and Large Laser builds can be almost as good as AC/20 builds at headhunting, with no ammo worries and better range- if you bring enough of them, and have +damage PPCs, and morale to burn.

You can also use the hit chances for mismatched volleys of weapons where any combination of N hits will result in a kill. For instance, firing one PPC++ and one standard AC/5 at a mech with 40% DR has the same 6% kill probability as firing two PPC++.

The small laser damage is the same than the medium laser, and also you don't take into account more than one weapon combinations. For headcapping the best chances are in general with AC5/10 plus medium lasers AND SRMs, so ballistics can be very good complementary to other weapons and alone too if we speak of the AC20.

For example, a 4xML++ 2xAC5++ 4xSRM6 gives you 65% of headcapping (0% DR), not bad.

Do these numbers take into account hit roll corrections? Those do things like try to break streaks, and move probabilities like 95% that are close to 0(%) or 1(00%) closer to those ends. So e.g. 95% hit chances are more like 98%. I'm not sure how, if at all, hit roll correction plays into called shot probabilities.

They are not important if you asume 95% base chance. It doesn't change much from 95% to 97.5%.

No, this is assuming there’s no behind-the-scenes fudging.

I’m fairly certain there’s no fudging, otherwise my 95% AC/20 shot wouldn’t have missed that Demolisher last night, which moved next and dished out a considerable amount of pain.

I don't understand how missing a single salvo proves there is no fudging, when it can be there and still miss a shot. Also it has been proven, both with empyrical test and anaylisis of the game code, that not only there is roll correction but also the exact formula used.

 

[jj284b]

in my current campaign, my main headhunter mech is Orion-V with two AC/2++ (35dmg variants) and two Large Lasers... i can hit same spot with both of them, dealing same damage as AC10++ with a lot more ammo and insane range advantage... for practically no recoil...

 

[Jamey]

in my current campaign, my main headhunter mech is Orion-V with two AC/2++ (35dmg variants) and two Large Lasers... i can hit same spot with both of them, dealing same damage as AC10++ with a lot more ammo and insane range advantage... for practically no recoil...

My current headhunter is the Atlas II with an AC10++ (+10 damage) and 4 LL+++. It has a 26% chance to headcap any mech with 20% or less DR. It gets a single non-lethal head hit 48% of the time.

I back it up with a Black Knight that has 7 ML++ (+10 damage) which can get the second hit for the kill 68% of the time.

EDIT: corrected my math.

 

[Doctor Machete]

in my current campaign, my main headhunter mech is Orion-V with two AC/2++ (35dmg variants) and two Large Lasers... i can hit same spot with both of them, dealing same damage as AC10++ with a lot more ammo and insane range advantage... for practically no recoil...

A 2xAC10++ setup runs cooler, do more stab damage and has almost double the chance for doing 61+ damage to the head with a Precision Shot than a 2xAC2++ (dmg) 2xLL+++. AC10s are pretty good for headcapping, and LL/AC5s too but these ones need ML or (better) SRMs, although for that you'd need to sacrifice range.

That said, if the target has 20-40% DR then the situation reverses and your setup gains the upper hand, also by a big margin. But of course, the chance is still very low (and negligible for the 2xAC10 setup).

 

[asaz989]

They are not important if you asume 95% base chance. It doesn't change much from 95% to 97.5%.

My question was actually about something slightly different - is hit roll correction used for the probabilities of hitting different parts of the 'mech, or are those displayed numbers real?

 

[Flying Dice]

Why would you even want to take an AC20? Would be my response.

I guess a lot of it comes down to play style. I personally think the AC20 is over rated. Sure it hurts when it hits but if you let one get into range you've done something wrong IMO. Likewise why would you spend all that tonnage only to have to put your mech in imminent danger. Personally I would take 2 AC5 or 2ppc (or combo there of) over an AC20 any day, but I like to play at range. Most stock mechs which you face in this game have the majority of their firepower at close range, kill them at range with LRM, PPC, LL and low calibre AC's.

Hunchbacks, Victors, King Crabs, Demolishers all die long before they get into range for the AC20, in my current play through which is at about day 1000 I have been hit by AC20 only 5 or 6 times, none of them fatal and only when the computer basically cheats by spawning them on top of you.

Everybody plays different, no weapon is entirely useless.

I don't agree with OP, but I really don't agree with you. Max armor max JJ Cataphracts with AC/20s and ballistic TTS were my mainstay last campaign, they're absolutely dirty.

 

[Doctor Machete]

My question was actually about something slightly different - is hit roll correction used for the probabilities of hitting different parts of the 'mech, or are those displayed numbers real?

Nope. Roll correction only effects the chance to hit the mech. For the chance to hit a specific location each said location has a base weight, so you have a table of weights depending of from where are you hitting (front, side, rear, called shot), that determines the chance. And when using a Precision Shot you multiply the chosen value of the location.

But can be still important. For example, if you want to know what's the real chance of destroying a mech CT, before determining the hit location you must apply the base to hit for each shot, along with roll correction. Because a shot can't land at the CT if didn't hit the mech at all. And that can be very considerable if the base chance is not very high or still is very high but you're using many small weapons.

For example, if you need to impact with four weapons of four, before even the location roll begins, with 95% you have 0.95^4 = 81% of landing all four at the mech, with 97.5% you have 0.975^4 = 90%. What does roll correction is making lower values than 50% even lower and higher values than 50% even higher, with the most heavily modified ranges around 25% and 75%.