Doesn't matter. With a nation near the top at the beginning, you'll have a large influx of points for 1/8 to 1/6 (in some cases more) of the game that there is no way a small nation in a crummy tech group can possibly manage.
Show me a 20k finish with Gwalior or Mongol Khanate.
Mongol Khanate would be pretty tough given that you're a vassal and surrounded by just three much more powerful countries. I'll give Gwalior a try when I finish my Ming game, since I've been meaning to do an Indian game.
The trick is to get high stability, powerful allies, and a couple generals early on when the smaller modifiers are still comparable across tech groups. Then get to be a major regional power ASAP for the provinces and armies. Since score goes up over time, the key is to just get into the top 5 early on so you don't have to play catch up too much and be aggressive enough that you're a major power by 1550 and can remain comfortably in the top three in one or two categories until your ready to take your rightful place at the head of the world.