What would have happened if Russia won the Crimean War ?

[skaraher]

Let say that Austria chose to remain neutral, or even better, take advantage of the chaos to occupy Bosnia-Herzegovinia. France doesn't intervene (Other rulers than Napoleon III), Sardina is bullied out of the war by threat of Austrian invasion.
The Brits successfully destroy Russia's fleet but aren't able to gain a foothold on Crimea.
Meanwhile, Russian commanders are considerably more sober and less stupid than in our timeline and manage to take make massive territorials gains on Ottoman territory.

What could be a realistic dismantling plan of the Ottoman Empire ? Would Bulgaria be left as a free state or annexed ? What of Armenia ? And Constantinople ?

 

[Amallric]

Britain wouldn't try to land without the French I think. They would focus on supporting the Turkish army. Sardinia definitely wouldn't go without France.

As for the outcome, it all depends on how great the Russian victory is. A realistic outcome would be like in 1829, a few territories in the Caucasus and a couple of territories gaining independence. Unless you assume Turkey is completely thrashed and fore some strange reason no one in Europe gives a damn about it, in which case Russia could ask essentially whatever it wanted. Constantinople was a long-term target, as well as leadership over Balkan slavs(and non-Slavs). Armenia was less of an issue in 1856.

 

[skaraher]

Who would give a damn about it beside the Brits and Austria ? Austria could be curbed by giving her a share of the spoils, France was involved only for prestige and Sardina for military support. At this time, Prussia wasn't really involved in the Balkans.

 

[Amallric]

Well it's a problem of balance of power. Every nation except Russia was interested in keeping the Ottoman Empire afloat because if it was be crushed Russia would become unstoppable.

 

[skaraher]

Well France did support Egypt bid for independance during the Oriental crisis and cut the Empire from one of its most valuable provinces.

 

[Amallric]

They did because they expected to gain influence in Egypt, but they would gain nothing from Russia strengthening at the expense of the OE.

 

[skaraher]

With the Ottoman Empire's hold on the Balkan collapsing, the different countries would be ripe for the taking. So could we have a situation a bit simlar to the one after the Russo-Turkish war of 1878 but in 1856, with the others powers stepping in and "dividing" the spoils between them ?

 

[Amallric]

As far as I know, Berlin Congress was more about curtailing Russian gains as much as possible than "dividing the spoils". Maybe if Russia for some reason had a genius diplomat in charge it could get the other Powers to divide the spoils. Still very unlikely, but a little bit more than the scenario where Europe just stands watching.

 

[Enravota]

As far as I know, Berlin Congress was more about curtailing Russian gains as much as possible than "dividing the spoils". Maybe if Russia for some reason had a genius diplomat in charge it could get the other Powers to divide the spoils. Still very unlikely, but a little bit more than the scenario where Europe just stands watching.

Major gains were neither expected nor intended to be kept. There was some back and forth between A-H and Russia after the 1878 war, with the Austrians, by far the most involved of the other GPs, were willing to accept all the gains for a slice and thus make the congress redundant. Russia didn't really have a plan for such a cascade success and ultimately having a new big by Balkan standards state wouldn't really serve Russian aspirations in the region.

 

[ap08]

Meanwhile, Russian commanders are considerably more sober and less stupid than in our timeline and manage to take make massive territorials gains on Ottoman territory.

I take offense at that. Russian commanders were neither drunk nor stupid. Not sure about the others (the famous British charge comes to mind).

 

[User29]

This whole war started with the back and forth of Louis-Napoleon claiming Defender of the Christians in the Levant, then Russia counter claiming(as it did hold the title since the 18th century) then things escalated and Russia invaded and then got beat.

 

[Kuipy]

Why did Russia surrender instead of doing the retreating deep and scorching the earth thing like in all the other wars ?

 

[User29]

Why did Russia surrender instead of doing the retreating deep and scorching the earth thing like in all the other wars ?

Cause they were the agressor, they lost, tons of dead folk. British and French would have just held Ukraine and continue to hurt Russian Prestige.

 

[KINGBEN]

Why did Russia surrender instead of doing the retreating deep and scorching the earth thing like in all the other wars ?

Cause they were the agressor, they lost, tons of dead folk. British and French would have just held Ukraine and continue to hurt Russian Prestige.

...and British/French demands were a tad more reasonable than those of Hitler, 1914-18 Germany, or even Napoleon.

 

[User29]

...and British/French demands were a tad more reasonable than those of Hitler, 1914-18 Germany, or even Napoleon.

Napoleon only invaded cause Alexander ignored the Trade Embargo of Britain

 

[skaraher]

But as the war escalated, Nappy demanded increased territorial concession in favor of Poland. And this, the Russian could not really offer.

 

[HuzzButt]

Russia takes over Turkey, sits "peacefully" for a few years trying to control the situation. The Caucasus find closer commonality with the now oppressed turks, Russia has to devote more forces to pacification, the expansion into centralasia stagnates due to lack of manpower. If by any chance the whole area cooled down there's either the obvious war with the neighbours or the less moronic keep quiet and hope for the best. Russia being a country in this world it would probably mean war with austria and prussia, increased unrest in the Caucasus, Turkey and Kazakhstan. The "plan" for the Ottoman empire is irrelevant since any successor state would be enveloped in unrest and in dire and constant need of russian assistance.

 

[Teutonic_Thrash]

Really, I think Russia would have just tried the Treaty of San Stefano earlier than they did IRL.

 

[User29]

Really, I think Russia would have just tried the Treaty of San Stefano earlier than they did IRL.

More than that.

Russia wanted Constantinople for years, centuries even. If they had Constantinople they really would be the Third Rome, at least in their own eyes.

 

[Nicophorus]

More than that.

Russia wanted Constantinople for years, centuries even. If they had Constantinople they really would be the Third Rome, at least in their own eyes.

Do they still want it?