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I would expect that trying to analyse all of social evolution would be a life’s task doomed to failure. Clauswitz enjoys posthumous fame (up in Valhalla) in a way that Jomini does not. I must assume that his views are now pre-eminent because few historians ever mention Jomini. Perhaps the Jominian concept of the ‘single killing blow’ was valid in wars amongst the ancients, that were never ‘total war’ and could be decided in such a way. In ‘total war’ breaking the army doesn’t necessarily break the nation. In EU only war exhaustion breaks the nation, but I don’t know if its linked to battles lost or just time elapsed - but that’s a different topic.

As much as war is an ‘art’ (a perverted one I think), for the purposes of computer simulation it must be in some way analysed scientifically. I would add that ‘frictions’ occur on all scales of warfare to an equal degree. Strategic planning has to allow for many things that may occur which tactical planning can afford to ignore. Similarly tactical planning needs to allow for many eventualities that strategic planning can ignore. Things don’t become more random the larger the scale (that’s a mathematical truth) just as every scenario has sub-elements within it that cannot be quantified.

Therefore I would say that a leader’s score should be at least two-fold, with some leaders being good at both tactical and strategic leadership, some good at just one. It is also a skill of leadership to recognise one’s weaknesses and delegate tasks to low ranks who are better at a certain aspects than you. Those who lack the ability to recognise genius in others and delegate (or like Napoleon or Hitler in their later years, who fear rivalry from below) should have to dilute their genius by the process of doing everything themselves. The great military machine that Frederick built fell apart in his dotage because it all relied on him alone. In my opinion Napoleon was a genius because, amongst other things, he had an encyclopaedic knowledge of his empire at every scale and a almost eidetic memory. However even he had his weaknesses and specialisms; e.g. he knew artillery inside out (it was his training and he brought it to the fore) but he never understood naval tactics.

I agree with Yndenwal that 'an ASL great leader has nothing to do with an Empires in Arms leader'. Personally bravery and popularity comes first at that level, cool planning at a higher level. However ASL should never be regarded as a good model of military simulation in my opinion. It sells itself as such but it is not. It’s enjoyable, but its leaders more closely resemble those in comic books than those in real life. It also confuses accretions of complexity with realism.

Midway is a hard battle to simulate in game terms, because it was largely won by code-breaking before the battle, so a Japanese player would have to conform to rigid plans if it were to correspond to reality - which wouldn’t be much fun. However I agree that every game should have ‘open-ended’ die rolls where complacent predictability is reduced but these ‘freak’ results should be rare. I agree that the worth of leaders compared to numbers men, quality of men and elements of ‘friction’ is subjective, but a reasonable consensus must exist amongst games that have leaders in them.
 

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I believe that almost everything in the human experience can be reduced to a science, complete with mathematics. However, there is a caveat - there are an enormous number of variables involved in many endeavors (like generalship) and it is difficult if not impossible to quantify many (if not most) of them, especially with our current level of understanding. Some variables may never be quantifiable.

To put it another way: art is science with too many unknown variables.

As for the gerbils, I do believe it is possible for a general through morale, tactics and other factors to get an army to achieve more than what would be expected under an average or poor general. A poor general let's his gerbils attack willy-nilly. An average general puts them in formation. The great general launches sunflower seed artillery barrages to wound and distract (yummy!) the enemy and then launches the assault or tips the water bottle to create a moat and swamp the attackers. Same army, different effectiveness.

Note that just because a general makes his army more effective doesn't mean he is going to win - there are other factors that may outweigh. But it does improve his chances.

Iroli,

To learn how to quote and do many other interesting formatting things on the board, goto this link:

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[This message has been edited by Pole (edited 13-08-2000).]
 

unmerged(28)

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Jan 21, 2000
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Originally posted by Pole:
I believe that almost everything in the human experience can be reduced to a science, complete with mathematics. However, there is a caveat - there are an enormous number of variables involved in many endeavors (like generalship) and it is difficult if not impossible to quantify many (if not most) of them, especially with our current level of understanding. Some variables may never be quantifiable.
To put it another way: art is science with too many unknown variables.


Hmmm... Let us put it this way. Imagine that you are a Sergeant, a small valley where you and your platoon are grouped. In front of you there is a Hill with an enemy platoon. You have sent out scouts so you know som factors. The enemy has got machineguns, claymores and tactical hight advantage. You also know that the odds are 1 to 1 which isn't particularly good when attacking a Hill (he! understatement of course). You 'know' that you will probably not be able to seize that hill, or perhaps you will... But... when you look at your men you see a bunch of dirty, angry LIVING men who 'perhaps' will not follow you uphills. Now your task is to make them. If you make them or if they tell you to go to h*ll or if they shoot you in the back is a matter of LEADERSHIP which in much is a matter of PSYCHOLOGY which is not science. At least it isn't covered by law.

Another one... 1915 at the western front. You are a Brigadiergeneral and your divisional commander have given you an order to take an area in a heavily fortified zone. Now will it matter if you got the order from the Man himself or if it came by ordonance in writing? Will your decision on how to attack and at which level of feriocity have anything to do with the fact that your company commanders will send letters home to the mothers of thousands? I think it will, because there is one thing wars have never changed - the will to be a human being with a free will. And among many things the tendency of all human beings not to act like logical machines is one of the most important causes for friction. You just don't know what will happen and it can't be calculated with mathematics. This is my belief. :)

/Greven




[This message has been edited by Greven (edited 14-08-2000).]
 

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I largely agree with Greven here. Not everything is a science, and most Psychologists will tell you that psychology certainly isn’t. Speaking as an artist (trained primarily in film-making) I would say that the crucial thing here is not actual war, but war simulation through the medium of computers.

We are trying to use a computer to tell a plausible, enjoyable story. My point is where does it change from being plausible within its setting (be it Greven’s wind swept hill, or my gerbil-defended water-bottle moat) and become implausible? What is the limits of plausible ‘realism’. Realism is always a debate in the movies. I believe that if the statistical powers of leaders are too great, and too fixed, then leaders become unrealistic ubermensch without feelings, and without limitations. They become implausible characters in our alternate reality. Combat mechanisms must therefore be unpredictable and great heros must become more rounded than merely a set of three stats.

Where I differ with Greven is his fatalistic belief than no realistic simulation can be achieved using maths (part or story-telling medium) given all the variables. I don’t believe that is so. EU II can be like a good film, one that everyone returns from saying 'wow wasn’t that realistic'. Only years later will it seem naïve ;)
 

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OWe are trying to use a computer to tell a plausible, enjoyable story. My point is where does it change from being plausible within its setting (be it Greven’s wind swept hill, or my gerbil-defended water-bottle moat) and become implausible? What is the limits of plausible ‘realism’.

I think when we get to gerbils defending a moat, we have gotten just a little bit unrealistic. ;)

Psychology is one of those areas where you find lots of unknown variables. Of course, if you knew how each man would react under each situation, it becomes a science. How anyone would manage to pull that off is beyond me and it may be totally impossible. Of course, you can try to approximate it through the use of training, good leadership and experience. But this is neither here nor there.

It is hard for me to say how much impact a leader can have. Unlike in the lab, you cannot redo battles over and over again with different leaders or different situations to see what difference they make. Generals certainly have some influence so they cannot be ignored. But could Napoleon with 1,000 men defeat an allied army of 100,000 under the command of a gerbil? I don't think so.
 

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Originally posted by Pole:
But could Napoleon with 1,000 men defeat an allied army of 100,000 under the command of a gerbil? I don't think so.
I don't know about you, but if I were serving under a gerbil, I'd have pretty damn low morale ;).
 

unmerged(28)

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Jan 21, 2000
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Originally posted by Matthew Wallhead:

Where I differ with Greven is his fatalistic belief than no realistic simulation can be achieved using maths (part or story-telling medium) given all the variables. I don’t believe that is so. EU II can be like a good film, one that everyone returns from saying 'wow wasn’t that realistic'. Only years later will it seem naïve ;)

I don't think we differ at all as my view of game simulations is neither fatalistic nore ideographic. If you read my post again Matthew you will see that I say that I don't think _reality_ is a mathematical formula. I said nothing about simulations of reality, which by their nature of being reductions of the reality has to be structured. But structure can be formulated with causality, which has nothing to do with the covering laws of natural science.

I just feel that asking the question:' How many men is Napoleon worth? 100?1000?10000?'
is rubbish. The question is unanswerable its like asking: 'how many gallons of air is my frog Bill worth.' I say no more.

IMHO, though. :) I would let the leader value be reduced from the friction value ( the better leader the lower the friction gets). So that for a player with a good leader the outcome would stay more true to the FACTS (like odds, terrain effects etc) than for a player with a bad leader.

/Greven



[This message has been edited by Greven (edited 15-08-2000).]