So discipline only matters if I tie the AI's die roll? How do I overcome a +2 Shock and Fire bonus, and -1 terrain penalty?
It always helps, but its not going to win any fights unless everything else is equal.
Now outside of tactical combat, it can win wars through lower losses for you and higher losses for them, but its still a "tie breaker" kind of mechanic till you get large differences in discipline. 100% vs 120% gets pretty brutal, but 100% vs 102.5% isn't even noticeable.