What influences the timing of historical AI Italy taking the "Claims on Yugoslavia" focus?

[eastcoastceojam]

When trying to do some early manual war justifications, the timing of the historical AI events that increase World Tension is important. I've noticed that, in some games, historical AI Italy it takes the "Claims on Yugoslavia" focus (adds +4.0 to World Tension) 30 days later than usual. It sounds trivial, but that 1 month difference can make or break my chances to annex a neighboring country without starting World War II.

Below is what I found in the game files for Italy's historical focus list- looks straightforward, but not helpful for my question.

The only 30 day focus I see on Italy's tree is "Support Nationalist Spain." Is that the main variable in Italy's early focus timing, or how quickly they capitulate Ethiopia also part of it?

ai_historical_focus_list_ITA = {
    ai_national_focuses = {
        ITA_ethiopian_war_logistics 
        ITA_victoryinETH 
        ITA_industrial_effort 
        ITA_army_primacy 
        ITA_mare_nostrum 
        ITA_light_ship_effort 
        ITA_industrial_effort_2 
        ITA_modernized_artillery 
        ITA_air_innovation 
        ITA_slovenia_dalmatia_claims 
        ITA_modernized_army 
        ITA_fortification_effort 
        ITA_extra_tech_slot 
        ITA_special_forces 
        ITA_capital_ships 
        ITA_bulgaria_friend 
        ITA_albania_war_goal 
        ITA_pact_of_steel 
        ITA_escort_effort 
        ITA_submarine_effort 
        ITA_italian_highways 
        ITA_carrier_effort 
        ITA_romania_friend  
        ITA_bomber_effort 
        ITA_greece_war_goal  
        ITA_german_rd_treaty 
        ITA_german_millitary_cooperation 
        ITA_naval_air_effort 
        ITA_atlantic_fleet 
        ITA_marines_and_landing_craft 
        ITA_air_innovation_2 
        ITA_armored_effort 
        ITA_claims_on_france 
        ITA_sea_wolves 
        ITA_secret_weapons 
        ITA_jet_engine_effort 
        ITA_prospect_for_oil 
        ITA_libyan_refineries 
        ITA_libyan_infrastructure
    }
}

 

[Dalnar]

The 2nd focus depends on winning war in Ethiopia...so if Italy struggles it picks something else

 

[Voigt]

They pick the next avaible focus in the list, so industrial effort.

 

[eastcoastceojam]

OK, and what influences when/if Italy takes the "Support Nationalist Spain" focus?

Of course, the Spain focus needs to meet the requirements by having an active civil war, and having Italian volunteers in Spain. But sometimes Italy takes that focus, sometimes they don't. I'd love to know why.

The extra 30 day for the Spain focus seems to account for the difference in when they complete the "Claims on Yugoslavia" focus.

 

[kettyo]

Shouldn't take it on historical.

 

[Bunnytob]

There might be a difference between the historical focus list and the historical strategy plan list.