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How do the Qing survive? That will determine a lot about what would happen if they did. Do they manage to create a constitutional monarchy? Do they manage to hold on as an absolute monarchy through oppressing the pro-modernization factions? Do they start backing modernization themselves? What?
The realistic answer is, probably instead of a powerful but highly corrupt Communist state, we have a powerful but highly corrupt Chinese monarchy of some kind with most of the political, economic, etc history around that more or less as it is now, merely with a different hat on.
The realistic answer is, probably instead of a powerful but highly corrupt Communist state, we have a powerful but highly corrupt Chinese monarchy of some kind with most of the political, economic, etc history around that more or less as it is now, merely with a different hat on.
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Well we have a communist state due to the failures of the KMT in WW2 (though doe the China warlord mess + Japanese aggression count as part of WW2 "proper"), so we would be unlikely to have the corrupt communist state that is the PRC. Infact, with a united china under the Qing, we might see them try to take back the parts of China that Russia took.
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The nature of the Qing and any divergence post-1850 mean that a modern Qing state would likely be hard to tell, do they implement a One China- two system policy when they annex Macau and Hong Kong, or do they integrate them centrally? Do they channel the Five Races under One banner (or even make it six with the Koreans) and integrate the tributary peripherals or do they break away in some form?
The Sword of Damocles here is how is how does the Mandate of Heaven fit into this? Do the Qing manage to reform this concept to be more stable, or is it left in place so as to keep the more conservative Confucian scholars and elites happy?
To see a modern Qing state would also be interesting, and on a superficial note would we say China or Qing for their empire? Would the official name be something like "Celestial Empire of the Qing" referred to in common parlance as China just as no-one uses Confoederatio Helvetica for Switzerland, or would it just be one or the other?
I was thinking of this scenario:
In 1829 the Daoguang emperor gets his ass into gear and attempts to modernise china, and is eventually successful, the elite conservative scumbags either cooperating or killed if they didn't. They is large rebellion by pro-tratitionalists in 1839 that is crushed. The Chinese complete 'westernisation' in 1840.
Using these new weapons and technology, korea and japan would be invaded, in 1860, thus cancelling atrocities committed by japan in ww2.
When WW1 comes around, China would either join the Entente (This timeline the british don't take hong kong or implement opium, and Russia doesn't get outer manchuria.) or remain neutral. In ww2 China would remain neutral but would trade with the Allies and send a tank corps in 1944.
Anything Im missing?
In 1829 the Daoguang emperor gets his ass into gear and attempts to modernise china, and is eventually successful, the elite conservative scumbags either cooperating or killed if they didn't. They is large rebellion by pro-tratitionalists in 1839 that is crushed. The Chinese complete 'westernisation' in 1840.
Using these new weapons and technology, korea and japan would be invaded, in 1860, thus cancelling atrocities committed by japan in ww2.
When WW1 comes around, China would either join the Entente (This timeline the british don't take hong kong or implement opium, and Russia doesn't get outer manchuria.) or remain neutral. In ww2 China would remain neutral but would trade with the Allies and send a tank corps in 1944.
Anything Im missing?
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Chinese cultural history would have to be completely different in order for the Qing to stay in power- no Xinhai revolution, no New Culture movement, no May Fourth movement, no Nationalists or Communists. The point of divergence would have to be really far back in order for them to even have a chance and modern China would be almost unrecognizable.
A 'traditional' Chinese state like the Qing can only stay in power if the royal house is in order and if China has the political and economic clout to maintain the Confucian diplomatic system. From the mid-19th century onwards Qing didn't have any of these requirements. The royal house was dominated by petty infighting and young, weak emperors, and efforts at reform were squashed from within the imperial household. Industrialization in the West had finally hit the point that Chinese economic power was collapsing. The Taiping Rebellion devastated China's most-productive region and killed millions while various regional revolts strained the army and the budget. And diplomatically, Vietnam was being conquered by the French, Japan had undergone a nationalist and anti-Confucian revolution, and China had been humiliated by the Opium Wars, the loss of Maritime Province and Sakhalin to Russia, and the expansion of spheres of influence in its cities. Toss on the Sino-Japanese War, which brought the annihilation of the modernized Chinese navy and the definitive loss of Korea, their last faithful Confucian ally, and the Qing is an utterly failed state.
This makes it tricky because prior to maybe 1840 it wasn't apparent that Qing would soon be in major decline, but once the First Opium War hit it was literally one problem after another until the dynasty finally collapsed. In terms of military or productive technology there was little that could have been copied until it was already too late (the iron-hulled warship Nemesis, which played such a major role in the war, had only been built one year earlier in 1839). It seems that Chinese defeat in these early wars mostly boiled down to human and organizational failures, not a large technical gap. The Qing army was poorly-led, poorly-trained, undisciplined, inexperienced and armed with poorly-maintained or hand-me-down equipment (in the Taiping rebellion and later wars they would be seriously outperformed by irregulars and citizen militias) while the British military was on the cutting edge, fresh from hard-fought wars in Europe and the colonies. At least since the time of the Qianlong Emperor, Chinese officials noted that their military was declining- if he or his successor had done an in-depth reform of the military to professionalize them and keep them well-supplied, then maybe that would have staved off some of the disasters of the coming century.
A 'traditional' Chinese state like the Qing can only stay in power if the royal house is in order and if China has the political and economic clout to maintain the Confucian diplomatic system. From the mid-19th century onwards Qing didn't have any of these requirements. The royal house was dominated by petty infighting and young, weak emperors, and efforts at reform were squashed from within the imperial household. Industrialization in the West had finally hit the point that Chinese economic power was collapsing. The Taiping Rebellion devastated China's most-productive region and killed millions while various regional revolts strained the army and the budget. And diplomatically, Vietnam was being conquered by the French, Japan had undergone a nationalist and anti-Confucian revolution, and China had been humiliated by the Opium Wars, the loss of Maritime Province and Sakhalin to Russia, and the expansion of spheres of influence in its cities. Toss on the Sino-Japanese War, which brought the annihilation of the modernized Chinese navy and the definitive loss of Korea, their last faithful Confucian ally, and the Qing is an utterly failed state.
This makes it tricky because prior to maybe 1840 it wasn't apparent that Qing would soon be in major decline, but once the First Opium War hit it was literally one problem after another until the dynasty finally collapsed. In terms of military or productive technology there was little that could have been copied until it was already too late (the iron-hulled warship Nemesis, which played such a major role in the war, had only been built one year earlier in 1839). It seems that Chinese defeat in these early wars mostly boiled down to human and organizational failures, not a large technical gap. The Qing army was poorly-led, poorly-trained, undisciplined, inexperienced and armed with poorly-maintained or hand-me-down equipment (in the Taiping rebellion and later wars they would be seriously outperformed by irregulars and citizen militias) while the British military was on the cutting edge, fresh from hard-fought wars in Europe and the colonies. At least since the time of the Qianlong Emperor, Chinese officials noted that their military was declining- if he or his successor had done an in-depth reform of the military to professionalize them and keep them well-supplied, then maybe that would have staved off some of the disasters of the coming century.
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I daresay realism.
I think you are underestimating the court forces at play, the obvious divergence I had assumed you were going for was the 100 Days Reform not being only 100 days and continuing. I think the problem is that in 1829, China isn't that far behind the west and still believes in splendid isolation. I think it would take some stimulus to prompt Qing westernisation, such as Britain or France or Portugal or whoever deciding to try to take some land, maybe the Netherlands try to reclaim Formosa to repay the previous expulsion? This sting of defeat would make the court realise that the Sinosphere is no longer as strong in relation to others as it once was.
In this context, Tibet, Mongolia and Korea who all remained tributaries until the end would likely be peacefully annexed, unless their rulers fought back in which case order is restored to the rebellious provinces and they join the Empire.
Japan was too far gone from the Sinosphere geopolitically to just be invaded, and they would likely have a stronger navy due to earlier Westernisation. The best a Qing state could hope for is cultural subservience and close alliance as Japan was no longer just a series of worthless islands.
A stronger Qing state would also have needed to prevent the Taiping rebellion being as bad as it was historically for them to resist Han claims that the Manchu's were no longer fit for purpose.
I read somewhere that Chiang Kai-shek would look at the PRC today and think that this was the China that he always wanted.
That being said, the Chinese were always going to emerge. Perhaps with a strong dynasty they would not have had the horrible interregnum.
That being said, the Chinese were always going to emerge. Perhaps with a strong dynasty they would not have had the horrible interregnum.
I think it's true that he'd look on concepts like "centralized democracy" or the development of state capitalism with approval, but in the area of social policy he'd be revolted by the modern PRC. In terms of the overall power structure a modern KMT China would probably look very similar to the modern PRC but things like the one-child policy or forced collectivization would have been beyond the pale for them.
I'd say the point of divergence would have to be after Kangxi Emperor. Kangxi tried to transform Manchus into urbanised ruling class that were both military leaders and Confucian officials, but his successors chose to emphasise Manchu military virtues first. This basically locked majority of Manchu population to permanent status as Bannermen who lived in semi-poverty as poorly funded garrison troops. This both artificially sharpened the social divisions between Manchu and Han, and poorly affected the quality of the military.
or heck, not the 1915 - 1935 chaos then maybe the Japanese wouldn't have come on... so many butterflies
I missed out quite a bit haven't I?
No you fool! It's because CHINA STRONK!
Doesn't matter. Something this large happening that long ago is going to lead to significant differences in world trade, migration, consumption patterns, political events, economics, cultural developments, and so on, on micro and macro levels.
The butterfly effects are going to mean that pretty much anyone alive today would never have been born.
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