What if Pearl Harbour never took place.....

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Shadowstrike

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...and Hitler averted Barbarossa until Sealion was complete? Could the Nazis have a possibility for world conquest, or domination over vast dominions?

Under this assumption, Hitler would have launched a total war against the British, continuing the Battle of Britain and culmulating in Operation Sealion, the invasion of the British Isles. Would this have drawn in the Russians or the Americans?
 

Ebusitanus

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War with the Soviet Union was unavoidable, really just a matter of time. If Adolf wouldn't have attacked then it would have been Josif one or two years later.
The only real good "what if" about this is:
Tojo hits his head against a Tatami wall and realizes that its "smarter" to invade the Soviet Union in the late summer of 41 thus breaking Josif's ass and making some sense of that Axis pact.
I would love to have seen Adolf's photo when he heard about Peral Habrour :D
 

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Well, unless you halt British industry in 1939, super accelerate a German Navy while at the same time building fighters which can stay over England for more than 8 minutes, build an oil pipeline and a couple of artificial harbors, and assume that a dribbling idiot is installed as Prime Minister of Britain then Sealion is pretty much doomed to failure.

If you can do all of that, why stop at Britain, you could just as easily fight US-USSR-Britain all at once.

As for Japan fighting Russia, they had a scare in 1939 sufficient enough to believe that America was a softer target.

Maybe a combination of Uboats and the proposed Ural bomber may do enough damage to Britain to force a peace, Hitler wasn't known for slow patient warfare.
 

Shadowstrike

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What if the Germans hadn't moved over to hiting civilian targets, but focused entirely on hitting radar stations, hammering British military points, then started sealion? Grated, chance of bowling over the British isles like they did with France would be pretty slim, but what if they seized london and set up a puppet government or offered peace with the British (I've been playing too much EU, does things to the mind)? That could probably have been done before Stalin decided to take a swipe at the Reich. Am I missing something here though?

Oh and Post 300.
 

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Originally posted by Shadowstrike
What if the Germans hadn't moved over to hiting civilian targets, but focused entirely on hitting radar stations, hammering British military points, then started sealion? Grated, chance of bowling over the British isles like they did with France would be pretty slim, but what if they seized london and set up a puppet government or offered peace with the British (I've been playing too much EU, does things to the mind)?
There's a thread with a lot of Sealion discussion in it, the "Why Did the Nazi's Lose" thread. RAF was not the reason, no navy, no transports, and no plan are the real limiting factors. Think of the 2 years the allies spent planning D-Day, and the industrial might behind it, then try and mimic it without any other invasions to test theories, and with Britain beginning the war with a massive naval advantage.

Don't know if Russia was ever planning to attack, despite post war assumption that they would attack sometime. Ironicaly the Soviets signed a deal paying millions of Marks in gold for the Germans to build a fibre plant projected to take years. Between that and other business interests, particularly the sale of Soviet oil to Germany, it's hard to believe that they are planning an attack despite the propaganda.

Britain was an island which could not feed itself, and had to import a great deal of raw materials. IMHO a long siege is the only way to defeat them.
 
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1. Operation Sealion

The operation was doomed due to a lot of circumstances,
- German planning was focused on Barbarossa, not Sealion. Hitlers aim was to bring Britain out of war not to occupy it.
- Lack of industrial planning.
- No adequate transport equipment.
- Insufficient number of light cruisers and large destroyers in the German navy.
etc.


2. Japan vs. USSR

The Japanese army had inferior equipment to any major WWII army, especially armour. Inthe short war in Manchuria 1939 Red Army had shown its supremacy on the battlefield vs. Imperial Japanese Army. The result might have been a major riot in China when the Red Army have beaten the Japanese.
 

Ebusitanus

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"2. Japan vs. USSR

The Japanese army had inferior equipment to any major WWII army, especially armour. Inthe short war in Manchuria 1939 Red Army had shown its supremacy on the battlefield vs. Imperial Japanese Army. The result might have been a major riot in China when the Red Army have beaten the Japanese."

The idea is not about Japan taking alone against mighty Soviet Union...that makes no sense and they knew it from what happened the last time. The idea is that Japan (once set into backstabing, who cares) to attack USSR in their weakest momment, say late August, September, when Stalin is loosing his nerves. Nobody is saying that Japan should BEAT the USSR...Just to tie up all those divisions Hitler had to encounter during the winter. I believe there would be a MAJOR diference in Axis final performance during early 42. AFTER that its just about dividing the spoils. Japan blundered inmensly by globalizing the conflict with the USA. All those needed raw materials could be easily be taken from the USSR or the direct contact between the Japanese and Germans in mid russia (exchange).
Anyways, USA would have found another way to get herself into the WW. But that would have been after Germany-Japan had erased the eastern front.


"Don't know if Russia was ever planning to attack, despite post war assumption that they would attack sometime. Ironicaly the Soviets signed a deal paying millions of Marks in gold for the Germans to build a fibre plant projected to take years. Between that and other business interests, particularly the sale of Soviet oil to Germany, it's hard to believe that they are planning an attack despite the propaganda."


My friend...economically speaking thus the Germans had as much economical "interest" in that oil or other raw materials comming from the non-agression pact as the soviets and that didn't hinder them. The notion of USSR refraining from war in the west, when even Zukhov in his memoirs says they would have in the mid 40's, because of economical gain is ludicrous, its all about a sustainablity of the situation. War in the east was unavoidable despite what you might say, that is not propaganda, its established history.
 

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Ebusitanus it appears that without any evidence, just the assumtion that Stalin would get restless and perhaps like a summer house on the Elbe, that a Russian DOW on Germany was inevitable.

I've often wondered why this is accepted.

The German rational behind breaking the Molotov-Von Ribbentrop pact is understanbable given Hitler's penchant for Lebesnraum. But what would Russia get out of such a war? Having witnessed the level of numerical superiority just to grab Finnish land, and the success of the German army in every theatre by 1941, I would imagine war being the very last option for Russia, at least for several years.

Now, if you assume that by 1944 Germany does not attack, and that the Russians are now comfortable with their military reforms, what on earth go they gain by going west?
 
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Originally posted by sean9898
Now, if you assume that by 1944 Germany does not attack, and that the Russians are now comfortable with their military reforms, what on earth go they gain by going west?

Simple:

- War between Germany and the USA was just a matter of time. An unofficial war was already raging in the Atlantic by 1941, so by '42 or '43 at the latest the US would have joined Britain [and probably sooner if Britain was invaded].

- If the USSR did nothing, there were 2 possible endings:

a) Germany wins the War and has a huge Empire in the Unions' doorstep, or

b) the Western Allies win the war and end it with armies all around the Unions' borders.

Since any of those blocks is highly hostile to communism [and the Allies and Germans had even invaded Russia during the Civil War that followed WWI], the only sensible solution is to strike at the weakest one (Germany, that then gets caught in the middle of the might of the USA and the USSR), and then grab as much of Eastern and Central Europe as possible - perhaps even more.
 

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When Hitler found out about Pearl Harbor, he was ectatic. Until he found out that none of his senior advisors knew where the heck the place was.

Oh, and what about a possibility of Germany stopping Britain from entering the war in the first place? I know that it is unlikely, but maybe, if Hitler convinced the British that they shouldn't risk their lives fighting a continental war. WWII would then turn into an eastern front war, and Stalin would have a harder time beating the Axis. The whole German and Jappanese (possibly) Armies would be invading Russia. That and Hitler turning the German factories to 100%, would give the Axis a better chance.
 

Misha

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Keoland said:
- War between Germany and the USA was just a matter of time. An unofficial war was already raging in the Atlantic by 1941, so by '42 or '43 at the latest the US would have joined Britain [and probably sooner if Britain was invaded].

Some historians who have studied the attitudes of the policymakers of the Roosevelt administration have argued that, even without Pearl Harbor, the US would have entered the war on the side of Britain by April or so of 1942. (Remember that Wilson brought the US into WWI as a cobelligerent in April of 1917, about 2.5 years into the conflict - this would be about the same point). FDR was justifiably reluctant to bring a sharply divided nation into war too soon, but it was clear that a consensus for war was growing among the American people throughout 1941 & that the extreme isolationists were fighting a rearguard action.

The warhawks in Washington were increasingly apprensive about Britain's ability to survive without a thoroughgoing American effort. The US Navy was already escorting supply convoys most of the way across the Atlantic & sharing intelligence about Nazi submarine activity with the British. But this apparently was insufficient. Short of war, there was little more that the US could do to help Britain.

Confronted with this choice, it seems likely that Roosevelt would have felt obliged to go to war with the Nazis in order to protect Britain. Finding a pretext for war would have been easy. The German Navy had already fired upon American ships behaving in what the Nazis believed to be distinctly unneutral activity. FDR had let these incidents pass earlier when the US wasn't ready for war. He wouldn't have to wait long for another such opportunity once he actually wanted war.

If this argument is right (and the documentation for it is impressive) then the attack on Pearl Harbor only affected the timeline of American belligerent involvement in WWII by some months. Whether that would have changed the course is history is another question...
 

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You have a tough task to keep Britain out of the war, but given the other possibilities it might be the easiest one to have Germany at peace on the Western Front. You need something to drive a wedge between Britain and France, perhaps a very left wing France, bordering on communism.

You also have to not have Germany invade through Holland and Belgium, that's almost guaranteed to involve Britain, and you IMHO you must have an agreement between Britain and Germany, that the channel ports are not going to be part of Germany after the war.

Keoland, in 1941 for all intents and purposes Germany has won the war, and is on USSR's doorstep. You now, not only have Russia at war, but you need to assume that the US is as war with Germany as well.

While Germany declaring war on the US may be likely, the reverse is not necesarily true. We saw how unprepared for war the US is 1941 and 1942, taking a year of the war to be able to do anything, even though at war, and ramping up the economy.

Roosevelt would probably have liked to enter the war in 1940, but he could not, and it will take more than a few ships being sunk to lower the hostility of American industrialists towards him. In 1941, despite being attacked, there was some reluctance to retool for military production, and this task might have been harder without a Japanese attack.

While it is possible for both the US and USSR to enter the war, or both of them, I do strongly disagree that either were a certainty. I'm not sure that either the Cabinet or British people could take much comfort in May 1941 that such allies were guaranteed to enter the war.
 

btk2333

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Originally posted by sean9898
Now, if you assume that by 1944 Germany does not attack, and that the Russians are now comfortable with their military reforms, what on earth go they gain by going west?

The Soviets intended to bring Communism to as many nations as their army would take them. Also, the Russians have always wanted the Balkans for themselves. At the time, Germany had occupied the Balkans and most of Europe and they hated Communism. Why would Stalin not want to strike an Anti-Communist controlling land they have always coveted?
 

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Originally posted by btk2333


The Soviets intended to bring Communism to as many nations as their army would take them. Also, the Russians have always wanted the Balkans for themselves. At the time, Germany had occupied the Balkans and most of Europe and they hated Communism. Why would Stalin not want to strike an Anti-Communist controlling land they have always coveted?

Germany occupied Greece and Yugoslavia. Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania were members of the axis pact.

Stalin did not expand before the Nazo-Soviet pact of 1939, their subsequent invasion of the Baltic States, Bessarabia and Poland was viewed as recapturing Russian territory lost after WW1. Hardly proof of communism expanding.
 

TheDS

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Play Axis and Allies.

You will find that the only viable strategy for the Axis is to use teamwork. Japan must invade Russia and knock it out; without land, Japan simply can't build enough, but toward the end of a game where the Axis wins, Japan is usually outbuilding Germany. (When the Allies are winning, Russia usually outbuilds GB and USA, but we know that in RL, the Russians were held up almost entirely by US arms shipping through Archangel, not by their own industrial ability, nor that in the lands they captured.)

In RL, Japan and Germany basically went their own seperate ways and did not cooperate at all. It is the Allied teamwork that allowed them to stop the enemy advance, and then the untouched American industrial might that ground them into the dirt.

The Japanese and the Russians had been at odds for a long time. Most everyone has heard of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905, in which Japan wiped out Russia's Pacific and Baltic fleets. (The war ALMOST started in the Med!) Their bad blood had been around for long before then, and lasted long after.

In the late 1930's, Japan had a couple short wars in China/Manchuria/Mongolia and that area. Russia handily defeated them, and they had no further desire to repeat the earlier disasters. Stalin still had good troops in the Far East, waiting for the Japanese to make a move, and so they looked for easier targets.

The only thing that stood in their way of taking over the Pacific was the USA. They were afraid we'd go to war with them over the war they were having with China at the time. Our economic sanctions forced them to find alternate resources, since the ones they were getting in Manchuria weren't doing the job. The American bases they attacked in Dec 1941 were their stumbling blocks, so they took them out.

The Japanese rulers were convinced that America was weak, and that we would capitulate easily. At the time, we were pretty weak, but obviously, we didn't just roll over. Their attack was somewhat inevitable, due to the way they thought at the time.

Now the big question is this: What if Hitler hadn't gone and declared war against us? Germany and Japan weren't acting in concert. They had no common interests, except to see Russia disappear and to control their area of the world. Hitler didn't really have to declare war. Japan had declared war on the US without consulting him, and most treaties are worded such that you don't have to join in an aggressive war if you don't want to. (That's why Italy did not join WW1 on the side of the Central Powers.) I don't know about the Axis treaty, but it was foolhardy for Hitler to DoW the USA.

Had he not, the USA would've pounded Japan thoroughly. The public would have quickly forgotten anything Hitler was doing to their neutral convoys in the Atlantic until Japan was a smoking husk, and that would have taken some time, thanks to the fanatacism of the Japanese. By that time, Moscow would have fallen, and effective Russian resistance with it, Britain would've been forced to the bargaining table, and Germany would've ruled most of Europe.

After that, I have little doubt eventually Hitler would have attacked the USA at some point.

The only point of real contention is the nuclear bomb. Once Germany had that, and a way to deliver it, there would be no stopping them. If America can develop and deploy it first, they might win, but once Germany has it, a lot of the Northern Hemisphere is going to glow at night. Even without an actual bomb, radioactive dust is a possible weapon.

Could America have survived all this? Would we be dead, speaking German, or would Germany be one giant parking lot, all because we didn't stop Hitler in time?