I was wondering what everyone thinks would have happened if WWI had gone the other way. There are many possibilities that I can think of, but I was wondering what others think.
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I think it depends on when the war was won. Had it happened in 1914, as it could have, I think things would have gone on pretty much the way they did just before the war. There might have been german occupation of Belgium and the eastern parts of France for a couple of years and France might have been forced to give a few of their colonies to Germany. There would have been some resentment in France for a few decades that possibly could lead to a new war, but there would have been no Nazi Germany, which IMHO would have made this scenario somewhat better than actual history.
At some point later (say 1917-18) I think the war was beyond winning decisively. Germany was about to collapse politically and would have had no real power to negociate strong terms after a victory on the battlefield. It would have at best been a draw without the harsh terms imposed by the real Versailles Treaty. Which again would have meant no Nazi Germany. Also preferable to actual history.
On the eastern front I don't know, my knowledge is a bit more hazy.
At some point later (say 1917-18) I think the war was beyond winning decisively. Germany was about to collapse politically and would have had no real power to negociate strong terms after a victory on the battlefield. It would have at best been a draw without the harsh terms imposed by the real Versailles Treaty. Which again would have meant no Nazi Germany. Also preferable to actual history.
On the eastern front I don't know, my knowledge is a bit more hazy.
you don't know what bad sides of this alternate part were prevented by the nazi cruelties. No, the real world path is not desirable but who knows what the alternatives could have had in side effects.
Well, I Believe that the Ukraine, Poland (the Russian part), the Baltic states etc would have become independent, possibly Germany would have annexed Kurland, as some called for that, but I consider that less likely. Turkey and the Dual monarchy would have continued to exist in theri present form. Wonder what would have happened to Serbia, guess split among AH and Bulgaria (getting most of it).
France would have lost some colonies, but otherwise the Western powers would have not been too affected. REally, not that much would have changed. Europe would have continued as a Concert of Powers and the US and Russia would have not become the dominant powers, they later became. There would have been a customs union under German influence in the East.
More importantly, the Nazi scorge would have been spared my country and the rest of Europe.
In total, I regret us Germans not winning the war (would have been better for most involved), other than my sentiment about WWII. I would however have preferred the Entente acceeding to the Germna peace resolution of 1916 calling for the ceasation of hostilities on the grounds of the status quo. The status quo was after all pretty good, except if you happened to be a Pole or from another "Russified" people.
The refusal of 1916 is a great tragedy. Understandably this is a little publicized historical fact. No wonder few people are told about it. It was one of the best moments in Germna parliamentarianism (owing to the socialdemocrats and Catholic Zentrum).
But it would have been better if the war had been stopped right on the Marne. Wishful thinking....
France would have lost some colonies, but otherwise the Western powers would have not been too affected. REally, not that much would have changed. Europe would have continued as a Concert of Powers and the US and Russia would have not become the dominant powers, they later became. There would have been a customs union under German influence in the East.
More importantly, the Nazi scorge would have been spared my country and the rest of Europe.
In total, I regret us Germans not winning the war (would have been better for most involved), other than my sentiment about WWII. I would however have preferred the Entente acceeding to the Germna peace resolution of 1916 calling for the ceasation of hostilities on the grounds of the status quo. The status quo was after all pretty good, except if you happened to be a Pole or from another "Russified" people.
The refusal of 1916 is a great tragedy. Understandably this is a little publicized historical fact. No wonder few people are told about it. It was one of the best moments in Germna parliamentarianism (owing to the socialdemocrats and Catholic Zentrum).
But it would have been better if the war had been stopped right on the Marne. Wishful thinking....
A Keynesian (
-style peace would have been just as good in the place of the Versailles tom-foolery.
-style peace would have been just as good in the place of the Versailles tom-foolery.
Well, one thing comes to my mind: Mitteleuropa.
That is, an irresistibly strong German/Austrian power in center Europe. The A-H leadership was extremely weak, so with a German victory it would have turned into a German satellite state. In the mid run, the economic supremacy would have shifted from UK to Germany.
The hot point would be the national struggle. A lot of countries liberated after the war in the East. What would have happened if Germany and A-H still got their grip on them? The situation was extremely bad in A-H before 1914.
On the other side, 1916 peace would have been good. A status quo parlamentary Germany in 1939 is quite more preferable than a 1939 nazi Germany. Problem is if you were a Pole. A-H would have disintegrated anyway.
Anyway, my preferred option would be a defeated Germany in 1918 without that absolutely irresponsible revenge tool that was the Versailles treaty.
That is, an irresistibly strong German/Austrian power in center Europe. The A-H leadership was extremely weak, so with a German victory it would have turned into a German satellite state. In the mid run, the economic supremacy would have shifted from UK to Germany.
The hot point would be the national struggle. A lot of countries liberated after the war in the East. What would have happened if Germany and A-H still got their grip on them? The situation was extremely bad in A-H before 1914.
On the other side, 1916 peace would have been good. A status quo parlamentary Germany in 1939 is quite more preferable than a 1939 nazi Germany. Problem is if you were a Pole. A-H would have disintegrated anyway.
Anyway, my preferred option would be a defeated Germany in 1918 without that absolutely irresponsible revenge tool that was the Versailles treaty.
Poland didn't exactly come out so well in RL, millions died in concentration camps. I'm not willing to speak for the Poles (I know there are some on the board) so I'll just pose the question: was Poland better off as a subject state to a non-Nazi Germany or as a independent state for 20 years as in real life that then suffered Nazi persecution and Soviet occupation?
As I said, that is what I prefer a "non-Versailles" 1918 defeat. No nazism and a free Poland. Problem is that those 2 years took some million casualties more
And those two years hardened Franco-British opinion so much as to lead to the Carthaginian peace (and bring in the Italians who only added fuel to the Versailles bonfire).
Well, I don't think one should connect Germany's 1918 defeat too much with later genocide. A purely Wilsonian Europe would have been great. Pitty, France (but as a matter in fact also newly independent Poland) did not go along with this vision.
Otherwise, the economic shift towards Germany had already taken place at the turn of the century. Germany was second to the US the greatest economic power. London was however still the most inmportant financial market, but that's another matter.
AS for Austria, I would have liked to see it incorporated into the German Reich. Only diplomatic rationale prevented this. Bismarck wisely had ruled that out in his days. But in 1919, a
unification would have made sense. Also, pity Hungary was so sorely treated being defeated. It should have been significantly greater. Hungarian revisionism was hence quite understandable and soured relations in the South-East.
My wish would have been, irrespective who won the war, that a European confederation in the spirit of Briand and Stresemann had been created. The Kellog pact and Locarno were also full of promise.
Europe would have been better off with either a German victory and comparatively mild peace conditions or better with a peace, with subsequent negotiations on the fate of Eastern Central Europe.
Poland could have been constituted west of the Curzon line with most of Posen, bits of Upper Silesia and a share of the Pomerelles. Danzig should have remained German. I'm not sure whether the Polish corridor was such a good idea. Might have been better, Germany had accorded Poand a naval base in Gdynia or Danzig harbour, a customs union and the internationalization of the Wisla/Weichsel. Minority rights should have been prioritzed. The harsh polonization measures after WWI caused large-scale emigration. A sad repetition of history.
Bielorussia and the Ukraine should have been given a chance by POland, just as Lithuania. As much as I sympathize with the Polish fight for Freedom and Independence, Polish represssion in the inter-war years is sorowful history.
Baltic States, Finland as well. Russia? Well ,that's a different matter given the civil war.
Yugoslavia was sure a bad idea. A Croatian-Slavonian kingdom might have done the trick.
Versailles was next to all the injustices a mistake as practically everybody save FRance (and "satellites") and perhaps Britain were unhappy with it. The western powers were not capable of enforcing their new European order indefinitely and laid the seed for understandable revisionism. Only sad that the Western powers only recognized this once most of Europe was under dictatorial rule (and I'm not only talking of Germany here). Appeasement then only consolidated Hitlerian power. The West should have given the WEimar Republic a chance.
Otherwise, the economic shift towards Germany had already taken place at the turn of the century. Germany was second to the US the greatest economic power. London was however still the most inmportant financial market, but that's another matter.
AS for Austria, I would have liked to see it incorporated into the German Reich. Only diplomatic rationale prevented this. Bismarck wisely had ruled that out in his days. But in 1919, a
unification would have made sense. Also, pity Hungary was so sorely treated being defeated. It should have been significantly greater. Hungarian revisionism was hence quite understandable and soured relations in the South-East.
My wish would have been, irrespective who won the war, that a European confederation in the spirit of Briand and Stresemann had been created. The Kellog pact and Locarno were also full of promise.
Europe would have been better off with either a German victory and comparatively mild peace conditions or better with a peace, with subsequent negotiations on the fate of Eastern Central Europe.
Poland could have been constituted west of the Curzon line with most of Posen, bits of Upper Silesia and a share of the Pomerelles. Danzig should have remained German. I'm not sure whether the Polish corridor was such a good idea. Might have been better, Germany had accorded Poand a naval base in Gdynia or Danzig harbour, a customs union and the internationalization of the Wisla/Weichsel. Minority rights should have been prioritzed. The harsh polonization measures after WWI caused large-scale emigration. A sad repetition of history.
Bielorussia and the Ukraine should have been given a chance by POland, just as Lithuania. As much as I sympathize with the Polish fight for Freedom and Independence, Polish represssion in the inter-war years is sorowful history.
Baltic States, Finland as well. Russia? Well ,that's a different matter given the civil war.
Yugoslavia was sure a bad idea. A Croatian-Slavonian kingdom might have done the trick.
Versailles was next to all the injustices a mistake as practically everybody save FRance (and "satellites") and perhaps Britain were unhappy with it. The western powers were not capable of enforcing their new European order indefinitely and laid the seed for understandable revisionism. Only sad that the Western powers only recognized this once most of Europe was under dictatorial rule (and I'm not only talking of Germany here). Appeasement then only consolidated Hitlerian power. The West should have given the WEimar Republic a chance.
Don't know if this the right place for this but after WW2, a Frenchman wrote a book called "The Economic Consequences of Mr. Keynes" (Not me -- the real one )
His argument was that the rise of nationalist feeling in Germany after WWI and the unwillingness of the British to help France contain the Nazi regime after 33 were due to the impact of JM Keynes' argument in the "Economic Consequences of the Peace" (1919) which convinced both the Germand and the British that the Versailles treaty was unjust, thereby fuelling revision
Now that is a clever little piece of sophistry.
)His argument was that the rise of nationalist feeling in Germany after WWI and the unwillingness of the British to help France contain the Nazi regime after 33 were due to the impact of JM Keynes' argument in the "Economic Consequences of the Peace" (1919) which convinced both the Germand and the British that the Versailles treaty was unjust, thereby fuelling revision
Now that is a clever little piece of sophistry.
Actually it wouldn't have mattered who would have won the war, Nazis would have risen to the power(if not in germany the on some other country[probably on the side that lost the war])
As long as i remember(and i might be wrong) the main reasons for Nazis to get into power was high unemployment(oka here strikes my bad english). Anyway not enough jobs... you know what im after here.
As long as i remember(and i might be wrong) the main reasons for Nazis to get into power was high unemployment(oka here strikes my bad english). Anyway not enough jobs... you know what im after here.
High unemployment due to what?
Versailles imposed unrealistic reparations on Germany that the country couldn't pay. The response was twofold:
1) Successive Weimar governments (a) initally hyperinflated to meet their unsustainable obligations and then (b) intentionally drove the economy into the ground because any gains would end up going to France and Britain anyways.
2) The Dawes plan and its successors attempted to make the reparations system work. The actual result though was a bizarre series of accounting transactions between and among the US, Germany, Britain and France which exacerbated existing distortions in the international financial system.
Absent the false promise of large reparations, the British would have been less likely to attempt to return Sterling to pre war parity and the international financial system would have looked very different.
The interwar gold standard suffered from many underlying defects and even a non-Versailles postwar Germany probably would have suffered economic instability. But I feel very safe in saying that the problems would have been much less severe for Germany absent Versailles.
And don't forget the griefs. Griefs were a powerful nazi weapon. If the mark plummeted, it was Versailles' fault. If people could not find a job, it was Versailles' fault. If there was risk of a communist coup, it was Versailles' fault. Versailles became the perfect beaten horse. Everybody hated it. And what is more, the British, thanks to the work of Keynes (and anti-French sentiment), also hated it, so they were willing to appease Germany, although the nazis used it to its benefit, because they could never be satisfied.
So Versailles was a two edged weapon: it imposed unfair peace conditions to Germany, and precisely because of these unfairness, it became imposible to enforce, and this failure destroyed the world order it wanted to create.
So Versailles was a two edged weapon: it imposed unfair peace conditions to Germany, and precisely because of these unfairness, it became imposible to enforce, and this failure destroyed the world order it wanted to create.