What if Czechoslovakia hadn't been abandoned in 1938?

[n00bypl4y3r]

According to what I've found online, Czechoslovakia planned to raise 1,280,000 troops with full mobilization, and from what I've read the Czechs had similar training and equipment compared to Germany. Added to this were their border defenses, which were in a hilly area and were fairly dense, meaning a much harder blitzkrieg.

If Czechoslovakia hadn't been abandoned, and the Germans took more time to prepare their armies, how would World War Two have been effected?

 

[HuzzButt]

Bombing the Chzech industrial base to bits would've cost them some, but tought them some and other stuff. Honestly I don't think it would've made a big difference unless someone managed to off Hitler his "how to overextend" braintrust (call me captain obvious.).

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

A coup from the army would have been very likely, especially if Germany gets stalled.

 

[Comrade Chaos]

Well, we wouldn't have gotten that funny Czech movie I Served the King of England.

 

[peter64]

No reason to cross hills when there are nice lowlands. Right in the narrowest part of the country. Where fortifications were far from finished. I have a hard time imagining France doing something productive, like an offensive or something. USSR God knows, but it had no land border with either CS or Germany. The success rate of assasination/coup attempts on Hitler is well known. Other than that hostile neighbours north and south; Hungary could maybe have been kept at bay, but Little Entente was basically dead at that point. Having frontlines in majority German areas which voted 98% SdP wouldn't help either. I'm very pessimistic about odds of survival, afaik even CS army planned to hold out for a few months and then retreat via Romania like Serbians in WW1.
As for the rest of the war, certainly less Czech and Czech made tanks in Polish and French campaigns. Best case scenario Soviets enter the war early, but get their arses kicked while French deal the final blow(yeah, I know) thus no eastern block. Worst case Germans remain contained in central Europe but neither side is strong enough to prevail so they peace out and Czech lands remain as a rightful German clay.

 

[StephenT]

Czechoslovakia had a strong line of fortifications along their border with Germany.
Then Germany annexed Austria. Oops.


Czechoslovakia had a strong army for its size, but it was still outmatched by the German army. France was in disarray. The USSR was in the middle of the purges, and would have to go through Poland to even reach the front lines; something to which the Poles would object forcefully. Britain in 1938 had no army and barely had an air force.

As for the coup by German generals against Hitler: I know that something of the sort was being planned, but I'm not sure how serious it was. I find it hard to believe that traditional Prussian generals would turn on their commander-in-chief right at the start of a war against France and Russia.

 

[General Guisan]

They could have picked a fight, and the German army of 1938 wasn't the one of 1940 or 1941, but they couldn't have stopped them unless a major French-British-Polish (!) offensive would march right into Germany. So yes, if F-B-P would have acted, then the invasion could have been stopped, but on a single 1vs1, they wouldn't have stand a chance, for reasons already quoted:

-Not all area was hilly and well defensed, the Germans could have rolled in around Bratislava, then all the way to Prague.
-Population in the border area was heavily Pro-Hitler.. not the best background to fight a war there, then.

So, unless quick and deciding foreign troops come to march into Germany (and that would be French across the Rhine, and Polish towards Berlin) there is little hope for Czechoslovakia.

 

[StephenT]

So, unless quick and deciding foreign troops come to march into Germany (and that would be French across the Rhine, and Polish towards Berlin) there is little hope for Czechoslovakia.

I tend to agree - but in 1938 I have a suspicion Poland was more likely to be on Germany's side than France's - especially if the Soviet Union also got involved.

What kind of state was the French army in in 1938?

 

[Lord Tim]

The USSR was in the middle of the purges, and would have to go through Poland to even reach the front lines; something to which the Poles would object forcefully.

Well, Poland might even have wanted to get in on the spoils - they did historically - which would have solved that issue by making Poland an enemy. Without that, according to some recently-discovered diplomatic documents there was an agreement with Romania that Soviet troops would be allowed through the country to reach Czechoslovakia that way. There were apparently Red Air Force officers examining airfields in Slovakia which they were hoping to use as bases for fighters and bombers.

 

[trybald]

I tend to agree - but in 1938 I have a suspicion Poland was more likely to be on Germany's side than France's - especially if the Soviet Union also got involved.

Poland, while not as hostile as in 1934, was always suspicious of Germany. In fact the main principle of Polish foreign policy before WW2 was not to get too involved with both USSR and Germany. It was assumed that it will end badly to Poland.

Also, the main reasoning why Poles would never agree on the Red Army marching through Poland was the assumption that once let it, they would never go away. The fate of the Baltic state proved that assumption to be entirely correct. While much maligned during the Communist Era, the interwar Polish foreign policy is now judged as very realistic and based on correct predictions.

 

[Cavalry]

The USSR was in the middle of the purges, and would have to go through Poland to even reach the front lines; something to which the Poles would object forcefully. Britain in 1938 had no army and barely had an air force..

The USSR only interfere if France and British accept the alliance. But the British didn't want that alliance, they send low ranking officers to negotiatie with the USSR while sending PM Chamberlain himself to Munich, Germany. So if there were an alliance, it will be a war between Germany and France, British, USSR, Poland. Czech.... Poland's opinion is just an excuse for the British to refuse the alliance. Who cared about Czech'opinion anyway?

 

[StephenT]

The USSR only interfere if France and British accept the alliance. But the British didn't want that alliance, they send low ranking officers to negotiatie with the USSR while sending PM Chamberlain himself to Munich, Germany.

You're getting the timeline confused. The Anglo-French negotiations with Russia happened in Summer 1939, while the Munich crisis was in autumn 1938, about eight months earlier.

 

[Eusebio]

Poland, while not as hostile as in 1934, was always suspicious of Germany. In fact the main principle of Polish foreign policy before WW2 was not to get too involved with both USSR and Germany. It was assumed that it will end badly to Poland.

Also, the main reasoning why Poles would never agree on the Red Army marching through Poland was the assumption that once let it, they would never go away. The fate of the Baltic state proved that assumption to be entirely correct. While much maligned during the Communist Era, the interwar Polish foreign policy is now judged as very realistic and based on correct predictions.

Seems like a total failure to me. Poland chose neither and ended up being invaded by both, had 15% of its population killed and was turned into a Russian puppet for 50 years anyway. If that was the result of a realistic foreign policy, I shudder to think what an unrealistic one would have precipitated...

 

[pithorr]

I tend to agree - but in 1938 I have a suspicion Poland was more likely to be on Germany's side than France's - especially if the Soviet Union also got involved.

No, just nope. Alliance with France was the core of Polish foreign affairs. Unfortunately maybe.

Well, Poland might even have wanted to get in on the spoils - they did historically - which would have solved that issue by making Poland an enemy.

It wasn't like that. Poland agreed taking back Zaolzie from Czechoslovakia in the menace of German unavoidable seizure of this territory only.

Seems like a total failure to me. Poland chose neither and ended up being invaded by both, had 15% of its population killed and was turned into a Russian puppet for 50 years anyway. If that was the result of a realistic foreign policy, I shudder to think what an unrealistic one would have precipitated...

I actually agree. What was the sense alternative then? Alliance with Nazi Germany? Maybe...

 

[Calad]

History here is rather blunt what would have happend: Czechs would have been abandoned by west and Germany would have crushed them and treated like Poland. Czechs would have been enslaved and massacred, the ultimate fate would have been similar like Polish: extermination. Nazi ideology was already hostile against Czechs because they were slavs. But because Czechs were very collabrative and productive Nazis had very few reason to kill these usefull workers. Old Czechoslovakia was the most stable area of occupied Europe after all.

The real question would have been could Germany performed so well later had Czechs resisted: Germany captured essentially whole Czech army and the most of German panzers were producted in Czech as well.

 

[StephenT]

No, just nope. Alliance with France was the core of Polish foreign affairs. Unfortunately maybe.

Well, that may be how the Poles saw it. The French, on the other hand, were very suspicious that Poland would ally with Germany given half a chance. I think it was Daladier who said that Poland's ambition was to be "the chief vassal of the new Napoleon" (meaning Hitler).

 

[KaiserBeer]

Well, that may be how the Poles saw it. The French, on the other hand, were very suspicious that Poland would ally with Germany given half a chance. I think it was Daladier who said that Poland's ambition was to be "the chief vassal of the new Napoleon" (meaning Hitler).

Perhaps because the Poles managed to know somehow that solely enforcing french foreign policy in the east was the quickest way to disappear.

 

[pithorr]

Perhaps because the Poles managed to know somehow that solely enforcing french foreign policy in the east was the quickest way to disappear.

Actually, it wouldn't be so hopeless if France managed to terminate the hostility between Poland and Czechoslovakia. What probably would never had been a problem if they didn't eventually approve the effects of Czechoslovakian agression in 1919.

 

[pithorr]

Well, that may be how the Poles saw it. The French, on the other hand, were very suspicious that Poland would ally with Germany given half a chance. I think it was Daladier who said that Poland's ambition was to be "the chief vassal of the new Napoleon" (meaning Hitler).

I must say Daladier was very efficient politician then. He perfectly managed to turn "a chief vassal" to the Hitler's bait, saving France few months of quiet.

 

[eleinvisible]

According to what I've found online, Czechoslovakia planned to raise 1,280,000 troops with full mobilization, and from what I've read the Czechs had similar training and equipment compared to Germany. Added to this were their border defenses, which were in a hilly area and were fairly dense, meaning a much harder blitzkrieg.

If Czechoslovakia hadn't been abandoned, and the Germans took more time to prepare their armies, how would World War Two have been effected?

German fifth column would have been significant in some areas, namely those with the fortifications. Slovaks may not have liked the war very much or it could have become a common rallying point (who knows). After the fall of Austria the fall of Czechoslovakia was almost inevitable. Their southern border wasn't as well defended. A German pincer would have cut them in half. The Slovaks and Sudeten Germans were not the happiest of bed fellows for the Czechs. Case Green was fairly well planned, even if the German army rightly felt unready, the Czechs could not deploy within their fortification line as their army would then be cut in half and encircled (and had at least 35 divisions for such a mission). If they did deploy within their fortification line it would have been a disaster similar to what did happen France. An army eradicated in pockets. I would not have wanted to be in the Czechoslovak Army after the Anschluss. The situation was terrible.

The appeasement of Hitler, though an error in retrospect, was a rather sensible idea at the time. Hitler appeared a nationalist in his demands (Saar, Austria, Sudetenland). What would he want with the predominately Czech areas? They figured perhaps they could save Czechoslovakia by feeding an unhappy part of it to the beast to satiate its hunger while increasing unity within Czechoslovakia by removing the German third column. But this only encouraged some Slovaks to 'independence' and Hitler toward more demands. It proved to the German generals that Hitler's assessment wasn't entirely incorrect: the west did not want to fight over some eastern land. The apparent severity of this "General plot" seems not to have been known to the allies. Amazing considering that Canaris had communications with MI6, throughout this time period, in regards to the plot.