What if Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance in 1939

[yerm]

So instead of invading Poland, Germany faces an announcement that the west has formally allied with the Bolsheviks to defend Poland, which obviously blue balls Hitler's planned invasion. Germany is forced to come to terms with Poland, who has no reason to give an inch. They would, however, be receptive to anti-USSR offers in the reverse.

This friendship with the soviets means the PCF is not banned nor expelled from France. French communists are empowered, seek greater influence, and push their anti-military sentiments at home. Come 1940 the French are facing serious concerns about civil disorder while the German economy is desperately frothing for something to loot.

The various nations of central Europe spend the winter of 1939 desperately trying to agree to a common defense against the soviets, who they fear will try to reconstitute the former Russian Empire and maybe then some. Only sketchy plans are made, but on a grand level, they agree not to war each other and not to let the Red Army in.

Germany now launches its 1940 blitz into France with Poland adamantly refusing to let the USSR come to their aid and Romania and Hungary, at least in word, reinforcing Poland's sovereignty. Stalin happily sits back and strokes his mustache, thankfully now excused by Poland from needing to stop these burghers from killing each other. Following the complete handover of the French fleet by anti-communists in their military, Germany forces Britain to accept peace. They accept the return of Gibralter and N Ireland so long as they keep the Suez. Hitler moves the French-German border to the Meuse, with Belgium being France's compensation and their and Dutch colonies divided among the various powers. In 2018 Historians discuss how the USA and USSR were the real losers of WWII as America was outcompeted by the British Joint East Indies and East Arabian Oil Company made the pount the reserve currency, while the USSR never had a chance because socialism.

 

[Lordhen]

Of course we wondered how Germany fighting only Poland and the CSSR at the same time might have fared.

Regarding the OT, if the French, Britons and Soviets had joined forces in 1939, their ambassadors might as well have come together before Hitler and sung "Oh it's bad luck to be you", would have been accurate.

So how log would a war last between them.

 

[Acheron]

So how log would a war last between them.

A war in about 1939 between an yet unconquered France, Britain and the USSR on the one side and Germany on the other? Well, if it only starts in Septembre, then the Reich might actually last into 1940. Given the poor showing her opponents did in real life, it could well be into summer of that year before collapse.

 

[pithorr]

So, lets assume that Czechs manage to overcome their pre-war defensive oriented planning, German air superiority, and successfully occupy Vienna. Great success! But does German war machine need Vienna to operate? Not really. At this point Poland would be decisively routed with only mop-up operations remaining, so bulk of German forces would be moving towards Czechoslovak borders. All in all you made a nice gesture but game is still over, gotta hope that fuhrer doesn't decide to make an example of you...

Yes, because Wehrmacht AD1938 was the same war machine like that in the 1940
First of all the Germans would have had to disperse their units along the much longer borders. Strategic positions of Poland or Czechoslovakia fighting alone were dire, for them working together not so much. Or quite the opposite. The Germans would have had a problem to defend Silesia for instance. East Prussia would have been probably sacrificed, because no German general would have risked to keep any significant forces there. In the meantime Poland could easily concentrate their forces on much shorter front line.
IRL Polish campaign main blow of German army was made just from Silesia. Doing the same, with the whole Czechoslovak forces on their right flank there, would have been the suicide... Etc.
Air superiority? How many Bf-109s Luftwaffe had in March 1938? And all of them were mark B at the best. Against joined Czechoslovak and Polish air forces together which were not so obsolete at that moment.
And of course there were still France and the UK in the West. Like the sword of Damocles...
If such the war turned into the long conflict for exhaustion, where economic potentials matter, Germany would have surely succeeded. But they would never had been allowed for it. They only chance IRL and in our what-ifs scenarios were quick campaigns to eliminate their opponenet one after another in short decisive blows. When stalled, the Germans were actually doomed.

So no. Facing Polish-Czechoslovakian alliance Germany would have never risked the war. Too bad, those both countries and their politicians were too stupid to understand it. But don't blame the Poles only. The Czechs were maybe even more responsible for poisoned mutual relations in the interbellum period.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

There would be also the significant risk of an army coup in Germany if the Wehrmacht gets stalled.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Yes, because Wehrmacht AD1938 was the same war machine like that in the 1940
First of all the Germans would have had to disperse their units along the much longer borders. Strategic positions of Poland or Czechoslovakia fighting alone were dire, for them working together not so much. Or quite the opposite. The Germans would have had a problem to defend Silesia for instance. East Prussia would have been probably sacrificed, because no German general would have risked to keep any significant forces there. In the meantime Poland could easily concentrate their forces on much shorter front line.
IRL Polish campaign main blow of German army was made just from Silesia. Doing the same, with the whole Czechoslovak forces on their right flank there, would have been the suicide... Etc.
Air superiority? How many Bf-109s Luftwaffe had in March 1938? And all of them were mark B at the best. Against joined Czechoslovak and Polish air forces together which were not so obsolete at that moment.
And of course there were still France and the UK in the West. Like the sword of Damocles...
If such the war turned into the long conflict for exhaustion, where economic potentials matter, Germany would have surely succeeded. But they would never had been allowed for it. They only chance IRL and in our what-ifs scenarios were quick campaigns to eliminate their opponenet one after another in short decisive blows. When stalled, the Germans were actually doomed.

So no. Facing Polish-Czechoslovakian alliance Germany would have never risked the war. Too bad, those both countries and their politicians were too stupid to understand it. But don't blame the Poles only. The Czechs were maybe even more responsible for poisoned mutual relations in the interbellum period.

They would certainly not disperse their army along the borders. There was no risk of a Czech offensive into any part of Germany that was defended by more than a local police brigade.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

They would certainly not disperse their army along the borders. There was no risk of a Czech offensive into any part of Germany that was defended by more than a local police brigade.

In 1938 ? The Czech had alot of tanks ya know.

 

[JodelDiplom]

In 1938 ? The Czech had alot of tanks ya know.

So did the French

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

So did the French

Irrelevant to that case. The German army fought the French (with alot of Czech tanks in their ranks mind you) in 1940, not 1938.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

Air superiority? How many Bf-109s Luftwaffe had in March 1938? And all of them were mark B at the best. Against joined Czechoslovak and Polish air forces together which were not so obsolete at that moment.

Here I must disagree tho. You are right in the case that the German army was not significant more modern in 1938 as a whole. The Luftwaffe however was the most modern arm of the German forces in 1938 with already some combat experience.

Also the BF109-D was already in service and the Czech airforce was obsolete bar 4 dozen modern bombers. Not sure about the Polish Airforce in 1938.

 

[Acheron]

Did the Luftwaffe have the sheer numbers though to dominate the fronts? I mean, in 1044 France, the allied air supremacy was not only wiping out anything it encountered in the air, to my knowledge, it considerably restricted the actions of German ground forces, forcing them to plan and act around allied planes. Was the Luftwaffe in 1938 big enough to do the same? How big did it grow between 1938 and 1940 when it did give a good showing during the Battle of France?

 

[JodelDiplom]

Irrelevant to that case. The German army fought the French (with alot of Czech tanks in their ranks mind you) in 1940, not 1938.

So? Firstly, having tanks in an army does not mean they are organized into offensive, mobile units. The French created and trained the czechoslovak army in the 1920s, and at that time, tanks were infantry support weapons, intended to lead infantry attacks across enemy trench lines, to accompany the infantry during any offensive operations, and to serve as local counterattack force for infantry on the defensive. There was no thought of organizing tanks as a double purpose breakthrough and independent exploitation force.

Secondly, if a country's armed forces have not devoted considerable (!) time into planning offensive operations, and creating the support structures that enable the kind of extreme force concentration that you need to create localized force superiority, then that country's armed forces will not launch offensive operations of any kind even against minor resistance. You need a huge motorized supply force that is both highly mobile and directly under the theatre command that is supposed to coordinate the offensive. You need to practice offensive movement and teach the division and corps commanders to move forces quickly through very constricted terrain, while under enemy fire, and not get into each others' way. This is very difficult and unless you have practiced it, your army is not going to just organize an offensive into defended enemy territory when it's necessary.

For what it's worth, here's a bit of a discussion from reddit's "ask a historian" forum, about the czechoslovak defense preparations. The listed sources are all in Czech, so unless you speak Czech you just have to either accept their description or choose to not believe it. In any case, if you read it, you'll notice it speaks a lot about how the Czech army imagined that the defense of the country would take place. Attacking into Germany is not mentioned except in a short statement that in the 1920s there were ideas that if the Germans acted up, the Czechs should attack west from Bohemia towards Bayreuth, and link up with a French army attacking across the Rhine river and marching east along the Main. Fat chance of that happening any time soon in the 1930s. For the planning in the mid 1930s it has no mention anywhere of an offensive into Germany, instead it's all about how they thought they would slowly trade space for time retreating eastwards from Bohemia into Moravia. That's not the planning that an offensive minded army would engage in. To me, it does not indicate that a Czech attack into Germany was in the cards. It sounds like the Czech tanks remain held in reserve behind a defensive line that the Czechs would try to stretch all along their enormous border.

Incidentally, it also describes how woefully incomplete the mythical Czech bunker lines actually were, and how pathetic the state of the country's defense actually were in 1938.

I repeat my assessment that the Czechs did the correct thing for themselves by surrendering after France and UK had withdrawn their promises of support against Hitler. Their position was utterly hopeless, and not even a Soviet offer of support could have changed their hopeless situation.

 

[ConjurerDragon]

Irrelevant to that case. The German army fought the French (with alot of Czech tanks in their ranks mind you) in 1940, not 1938.

Germany captured 244 Pz 35 t when they occupied the "Protectorate of Bohemia-Moravia" and the slovaks aquired 52 when they declared independance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_35(t)

The better Pz 38 t was in 1938 still in development. So it is not just the german army that does not field those tanks they had in France and Poland. The czech army would not field the Pz 38 t in 1938 either.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Germany captured 244 Pz 35 t when they occupied the "Protectorate of Bohemia-Moravia" and the slovaks aquired 52 when they declared independance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_35(t)

The better Pz 38 t was in 1938 still in development. So it is not just the german army that does not field those tanks they had in France and Poland. The czech army would not field the Pz 38 t in 1938 either.

A pathetic force. Like I said, the Czech situation was hopeless.

 

[Acheron]

Completely alone, yes their situation would have been hopeless. AFAIK, we were discussing if Czechoslovakia and Poland together could have put up a significant resistance.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

Completely alone, yes their situation would have been hopeless. AFAIK, we were discussing if Czechoslovakia and Poland together could have put up a significant resistance.

Indeed.

 

[ConjurerDragon]

Completely alone, yes their situation would have been hopeless. AFAIK, we were discussing if Czechoslovakia and Poland together could have put up a significant resistance.

I still do not think so.
The Czechs did suffer from the same mental "refight WW1 in trenches" disorder like the french did, imagining to defend themselves with czech hedgehogs and bunkers mimicking the Maginot line.
More than that they would not be capable of, not because Germany had the better army in 1938, but because the CSR suffered the same problems that Austria-Hungary had - they were a multi-ethnic state (czechs, germans, slovaks, hungarians, edit: forgot the ukrainians...)

and noone wanted to fight the others wars and many wanted rather to live in a neighbouring state and were ready to drop the government in Prague at the first opportunity.

So if the negotiations went the way as historically that the UK and France were ready to hand the Sudetenland (better named the Sudentenland+the parts of Moravia that were inhabited mostly by germans) in accordance with WW1 Wilsons 14 points and the freedom of people to select to which state they want to belong, over to Germany "to maintain peace" - and then the government in Prague said no, then I do not see the western allies intervening against a move that they historically agreed to.

And IF the UK/France stay out because the polish and czechs refuse to agree to their perceived way to perpetual peace, then that might lure the hungarians in.

 

[pithorr]

Here I must disagree tho. You are right in the case that the German army was not significant more modern in 1938 as a whole. The Luftwaffe however was the most modern arm of the German forces in 1938 with already some combat experience.

Also the BF109-D was already in service and the Czech airforce was obsolete bar 4 dozen modern bombers. Not sure about the Polish Airforce in 1938.

Are you sure? What I know Luftwaffe had ca. 300 Bf-109 mark B. Mark D was introduced in low numbers in April 1938 (in Polish campaign only 100 were used). The rest were ca. 600 Ar-64, which were worse than both Polish PZL-P7/PZL-P11 (ca. 500) and Czech Avia B-534 (ca. 400). Well, Luftwaffe had an advantage of course, but I doubt they could achieve air superiority in the whole theatre, maybe locally.

A pathetic force. Like I said, the Czech situation was hopeless.

Really? How many tanks and which ones did Wehrmacht have in March 1938?

 

[pithorr]

I still do not think so.
The Czechs did suffer from the same mental "refight WW1 in trenches" disorder like the french did, imagining to defend themselves with czech hedgehogs and bunkers mimicking the Maginot line.

Yes, but when we talk about wider anti-German alliance, maybe they would have been more prone for some offensive stance. Also, just only their threat on Southern German flank matters either.

And IF the UK/France stay out because the polish and czechs refuse to agree to their perceived way to perpetual peace, then that might lure the hungarians in.

The UK and France would have not stayed apart forever. And I really doubt Hungary was eager to join Germany against Poland.

 

[Lordhen]

A war in about 1939 between an yet unconquered France, Britain and the USSR on the one side and Germany on the other? Well, if it only starts in Septembre, then the Reich might actually last into 1940. Given the poor showing her opponents did in real life, it could well be into summer of that year before collapse.

Would Italy and the others who where allied with Germany in OTL be neutral lore even join the war on one side.