What if Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance in 1939

[Acheron]

Again, remember that historically, German could defeat-in-detail her enemies. Having to fight multiple enemies at the same time would VASTLY have changed the game.AFAIK, German generals later remarked that they wouldn't even have had the ammunition to ward of a French attack during the invasion of Poland. A year later and with the Czech industry working against instead of for them, one really wonders how they would have coped. Invading the Czechs from former Austria sounds nice, but it places these forces awfully far away from Berlin in case the Polish army starts to march.

People need to get off the notion that the Wehrmacht was some near-mystical unbeatable monster-machine. I admit that I am a bloody amateur with very limited knowledge, yet still I cannot help but be convinced that the Wehrmacht was merely adequate, maybe above-average and that the discrepancy in skill had more to do with horrible incompetence on the opposing sides, from overconfident and erratic Poles to defeatist and lethargic French and outmoded and stunted British to lobotomized-by-purge Soviets.

 

[olm]

Germany could probably still defeat their enemies in detail. They could simply focus Poles first and let Czechs sit in their fortifications just like French did historically in 1939. After Poles have been routed Czechs could be quickly and easily attacked from directions where they have no fortifications. Only way to derail this course of events would be Czech managing to conduct major offensive on their side, forcing Germans to transfer troops before Poles are beyond salvage, which is doubtful at best.

 

[bz249]

Germany could probably still defeat their enemies in detail. They could simply focus Poles first and let Czechs sit in their fortifications just like French did historically in 1939. After Poles have been routed Czechs could be quickly and easily attacked from directions where they have no fortifications. Only way to derail this course of events would be Czech managing to conduct major offensive on their side, forcing Germans to transfer troops before Poles are beyond salvage, which is doubtful at best.

Under these scenario the German border is quite long and Czechs had the advantage of internal lines, so unless Poland collapses as spectacularly as IRL they have the freedom to chose where to strike. This is a major advantage in case of near numerical parity.
So either the Germans accept to lose Vienna/Linz/Bayreuth/Dresden/whatever in case of a Czech attack, or they have to keep a dispoportionate amount of their troops in (multiple) reserve(s) to counter any action by the Czechs.

 

[olm]

Under these scenario the German border is quite long and Czechs had the advantage of internal lines, so unless Poland collapses as spectacularly as IRL they have the freedom to chose where to strike. This is a major advantage in case of near numerical parity.
So either the Germans accept to lose Vienna/Linz/Bayreuth/Dresden/whatever in case of a Czech attack, or they have to keep a dispoportionate amount of their troops in (multiple) reserve(s) to counter any action by the Czechs.

Germans gambled with risk of French attacking Ruhr while they were busy in Poland. In this context threat of Czech attacking Vienna is a minor risk.

 

[bz249]

Germans gambled with risk of French attacking Ruhr while they were busy in Poland. In this context threat of Czech attacking Vienna is a minor risk.

In that case the Germans had a narrow fortified border, plus geography favoring the defender... so they knew where the enemy is going to come and they could concentrate enough troops for a delaying action at minimum. In case of Germany vs Czechoslovakia+Poland local success for the Czech is almost guaranteed since the Germans cannot defend everywhere (that is exactly why Czechoslovakia was doomed, because if they are the ones defending than the Germans had free hand to attack whereever they wish and it is impossible to cover all approaches).

 

[olm]

In that case the Germans had a narrow fortified border, plus geography favoring the defender... so they knew where the enemy is going to come and they could concentrate enough troops for a delaying action at minimum. In case of Germany vs Czechoslovakia+Poland local success for the Czech is almost guaranteed since the Germans cannot defend everywhere (that is exactly why Czechoslovakia was doomed, because if they are the ones defending than the Germans had free hand to attack whereever they wish and it is impossible to cover all approaches).

So, lets assume that Czechs manage to overcome their pre-war defensive oriented planning, German air superiority, and successfully occupy Vienna. Great success! But does German war machine need Vienna to operate? Not really. At this point Poland would be decisively routed with only mop-up operations remaining, so bulk of German forces would be moving towards Czechoslovak borders. All in all you made a nice gesture but game is still over, gotta hope that fuhrer doesn't decide to make an example of you...

 

[Kovax]

3) The possibility of a devastating attack by a third party while their own defense was fully engaged against the Wehrmacht - Poland had the USSR to the east who was, if anything, seen as an even worse enemy than Germany; CSR had a long border with Hungary in the south, and Hungary had a ton of grievances with the CSR including revenge fantasies about Trianon. Hungary would quite certainly have attacked them some time after the start of the war.

Hungary could probably have been "bought off" by the Czechs with the promise of plebiscites in the contested formerly Hungarian areas, which Hungary had frequently requested in the League of Nations, before Hitler "bought" them with a deal for a similar amount of territory. Note that Hitler did not include several specific areas of the Hungarian claims, while throwing in a large swath of land in Ruthenia to cut off Poland from Romania in order to prevent Romanian assistance to Poland. If Benes had agreed to plebiscites at some future date (not impacting the immediate military situation), Hungary would have had plenty of reason to avoid having that land fall into German hands, and Romania could have provided help as well, not being blocked by politically unfriendly Hungarian territory.

Miklos Horthy was no friend of Hitler, although he had a greater fear of the Soviets than the Germans, and he'd likely have lent material assistance to Hitler's opponents, short of actually going to war (which Hungary was in no way prepared for). Note that as it was, Hungary became a channel for escape from Germany's grasp for many of Poland's persecuted minorities, until Hitler eventually invaded Hungary for harboring "armed Jewry" on the borders of Germany.

A joint Czech-Polish alliance, with Hungary pacified or even supportive of the Poles, and Romania able to honor its prior agreements with Czechoslovakia, might have given France and the UK a little more time to mobilize and put pressure on Germany's western borders. In 1938, it might have been enough resistance to stall Germany's still building army for lack of ammunition, or create enough political dissent in Germany to depose Hitler (without the successes of Munich and First Vienna to strengthen his position). In 1939, it probably wouldn't have stopped Hitler.

 

[Herbert West]

So, lets assume that Czechs manage to overcome their pre-war defensive oriented planning, German air superiority, and successfully occupy Vienna. Great success! But does German war machine need Vienna to operate? Not really. At this point Poland would be decisively routed with only mop-up operations remaining, so bulk of German forces would be moving towards Czechoslovak borders. All in all you made a nice gesture but game is still over, gotta hope that fuhrer doesn't decide to make an example of you...

Add to that, the CZE defenders either have to tie up significant forces on the Hungarian border, or invite Hungary to take their territory back, and then some. All the problems with having a multi-ethnic army still apply to CZE, too. Hard to imaging a Sudeten German or a Slovak fighting to occupy Vienna.


To circle back to my original quip: I don't expect an Intermarium to defeat Germany. But a strong and stable Poland-CZE-Romania-Baltic alliance could, potentially, extract concessions from the two Western powers, rather than being cast to the lions.

 

[Acheron]

A Polish-Czech alliance would for sure not have guaranteed victory by any means, but I would argue it would have been a vast improvement over facing Germany one-by-one, like mooks in an action flick.

 

[JodelDiplom]

A Polish-Czech alliance would for sure not have guaranteed victory by any means, but I would argue it would have been a vast improvement over facing Germany one-by-one, like mooks in an action flick.

Define "improvement"

Prague and Warsaw both being burnt out piles of rubble, instead of only Warsaw? Czech and Polish both short 20% of their pre war populations, instead of only the Polish?

 

[Lordhen]

A Polish-Czech alliance would for sure not have guaranteed victory by any means, but I would argue it would have been a vast improvement over facing Germany one-by-one, like mooks in an action flick.

But we are talking about a Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance in 1939.

 

[Acheron]

But we are talking about a Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance in 1939.

Apologies, we quite derailed the threat.

 

[Lordhen]

Apologies, we quite derailed the threat.

No problem, i like these kind of discussions.

 

[Yakman]

Germany could probably still defeat their enemies in detail. They could simply focus Poles first and let Czechs sit in their fortifications just like French did historically in 1939. After Poles have been routed Czechs could be quickly and easily attacked from directions where they have no fortifications. Only way to derail this course of events would be Czech managing to conduct major offensive on their side, forcing Germans to transfer troops before Poles are beyond salvage, which is doubtful at best.

That invites Soviet and French involvement and blockade.

Soviet raw materials built the wehrmacht. The lack of the same dooms it.

 

[Acheron]

Define "improvement"

Prague and Warsaw both being burnt out piles of rubble, instead of only Warsaw? Czech and Polish both short 20% of their pre war populations, instead of only the Polish?

Hardly. But the Wehrmacht repulsed or fought to a standstill with the threat of major powers intervening against her rising, forcing Germany ultimately to settle for peace instead, that would be quite the improvement.

Also, just how important was the industry of annexed Czech? AFAIK, in terms of tank, it was surprisingly important, what else did it provide the German army with?

 

[Kovax]

Hardly. But the Wehrmacht repulsed or fought to a standstill with the threat of major powers intervening against her rising, forcing Germany ultimately to settle for peace instead, that would be quite the improvement.

Also, just how important was the industry of annexed Czech? AFAIK, in terms of tank, it was surprisingly important, what else did it provide the German army with?

While there were already German manufacturers, Germany set up additional production of half-tracks there, and the Czech artillery factories certainly wouldn't have gone unused. Note that the PanzerJaeger I utilized a existing Czech 47mm gun (on an already obsolete Panzer I chassis), before production switched over to German gun designs. Czechoslovakia had been selling a moderate amount of artillery and anti-tank weapons to other countries, which means significantly more production capacity than it felt it needed for its own troops. They also built rifles for Germany.

Granted, less than one year's worth of Czech production before facing France wasn't a "make or break" thing for the Germans, but it's significant, and that production would have been working against Germany, rather than for.

 

[Yakman]

While there were already German manufacturers, Germany set up additional production of half-tracks there, and the Czech artillery factories certainly wouldn't have gone unused. Note that the PanzerJaeger I utilized a existing Czech 47mm gun (on an already obsolete Panzer I chassis), before production switched over to German gun designs. Czechoslovakia had been selling a moderate amount of artillery and anti-tank weapons to other countries, which means significantly more production capacity than it felt it needed for its own troops. They also built rifles for Germany.

Granted, less than one year's worth of Czech production before facing France wasn't a "make or break" thing for the Germans, but it's significant, and that production would have been working against Germany, rather than for.

I thought that something like a quarter of the German tanks used in the invasion of France were of Czechoslovakian make and seized from their military?

Please correct me if I am wrong, but that seems pretty make or break to me.

 

[Henry IX]

AFIK the Czech contribution to the Wehrmacht was equivalent to about 2 panzer divisions, out of the 7 they had for the invasion of Poland. For the battle of France 3 of the Panzer divisions were equipped with Czech tanks. So I would say their lack could have been a make or break for the Battle of France.

 

[Kovax]

If those additional 2-3 panzer divisions had been deployed as motorized divisions, or the existing tanks for 5 divisions were spread thinner among 7, it could have made a difference, but ultimately might not have changed anything. If those same panzer divisions had been further reduced due to fighting against the combined Czechs and Poles (and possibly the Romanians), that might have been a serious blow to the Wehrmacht. More importantly, the ultimatum at Munich being refused, and Germany finding itself at war with Czechoslovakia, France, England, Poland, and possibly Romania in 1938 would have denied Hitler another year of buildup, and put him in the position of having started a 2-front war without any previous military successes to strengthen his political position. I think the army would have deposed him and sought some kind of negotiated peace.

 

[Acheron]

Of course we wondered how Germany fighting only Poland and the CSSR at the same time might have fared.

Regarding the OT, if the French, Britons and Soviets had joined forces in 1939, their ambassadors might as well have come together before Hitler and sung "Oh it's bad luck to be you", would have been accurate.