What happens to the Cold War if Nukes are never dropped in WW2?

[JodelDiplom]

I doubt they would be used in Korea for the same reasons as OTL, they would be unlikely to accomplish much and would just cause respect for this great wonder weapon to diminish.

If the Soviets managed to have a public atomic test, before the Americans make their public, the US military and public will feel so humiliated that they will use their own bombs, in real battle, at the very first opportunity. Congress and the military would be screaming for them to be used in Korea, as soon as the first US soldier gets shot there.

Imagine what a nightmarish scenario that would be - a humiliated US blows Korea to smithereens in an attempt to one-up the Soviets and restore the confidence of the public, then the Soviets in turn feel humiliated because their NORK proxy got atomized, and then they look for an opportunity to get even again. They couldn't escalate the war in Korea (what's left of it) for risk of hitting US troops, but the next third-world country that so much as looks at them crossed, will get turned into an irradiated parking lot.

Unless sane politicians step in, and hold some kind of high-level conference. I suppose at that point the UN atomic energy bureau gets founded, and non-proliferation treaties are set up. It would still be one hell of a tense period, more so than in OTL.

 

[jamhaw]

Why would they nuke North Korean cities just because of a Soviet nuclear test? North Korea is if anything more right wing than the south, you don't want to destroy it when it looks like you could win conventionally early on. Later on tactically it is likely to prove of limited efficacy and the Soviets are likely to respond in kind.


But I find your scenario implausible. I don't see anyway that the Soviets would get the bomb before the Americans publically test it.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Why would they nuke North Korean cities just because of a Soviet nuclear test? North Korea is if anything more right wing than the south, you don't want to destroy it when it looks like you could win conventionally early on. Later on tactically it is likely to prove of limited efficacy and the Soviets are likely to respond in kind.


But I find your scenario implausible. I don't see anyway that the Soviets would get the bomb before the Americans publically test it.

Wasn't my scenario. Someone suggested the US would keep the bomb secret, to which I replied that they wouldn't, because the US-Soviet dynamic would work against keeping such weapons secret.

In any case, I do think that a Soviet nuclear test which happens before the US are known to have such weapons, would certainly be a terrible humiliation, and the US would be hard-pressed to one-up the Soviets. Just look at how the US public and government freaked out over Sputnik. In that situation you don't sit back and casually accept the blow to your prestige.

 

[Jazumir]

But they didnt bomb baikonur because of sputnik - they went to the moon, instead. Transfer: If the soviets seem to have the A-bomb first, then the US will build the H-bomb, first (or try to).

 

[User29]

But they didnt bomb baikonur because of sputnik - they went to the moon, instead. Transfer: If the soviets seem to have the A-bomb first, then the US will build the H-bomb, first (or try to).

The Soviets wouldn't have the A-bomb first, they would just announce it first.

 

[JodelDiplom]

But they didnt bomb baikonur because of sputnik - they went to the moon, instead. Transfer: If the soviets seem to have the A-bomb first, then the US will build the H-bomb, first (or try to).

I don't think some R&D effort (which is only going to bear fruit years down the line) is going to compensate for the humiliation of being a late-comer to A-bombs.

The Sputnik shock caused Congress to pour billions into NASA, with the mission to get a satellite of their own up ASAP. So the very least the US military would do, is to run a huge public atomic bomb test series of their own to show everyone their bombs are at least as powerful as those of the Soviets.

With the way the military people "tick" I would also think that they would really push hard for it to be used in a real war. In this scenario Hiroshima and Nagasaki haven't been bombed yet, so the A-Bombs are "only" exciting huge explosives. The moral inhibition against using them wouldn't be there yet.

 

[Jazumir]

Why do you think that? Any test, even a soviet one (esp. if it´´s going to trigger an american response of any kind), would clearly show its potential. Do you think politicians or militaries would (still) be kind of gambling on playing ´oops, if we had known just how powerfull these are...´ when the death-toll comes up?

The only difference in not dropping the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki for the cold war might be hokkaido getting soviet occupied and be turned over to the west for some barter - maybe south corea. And then from there, of course... so maybe no corea war?

 

[Jazumir]

The Soviets wouldn't have the A-bomb first, they would just announce it first.

Hence ´seem´.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Why do you think that? Any test, even a soviet one (esp. if it´´s going to trigger an american response of any kind), would clearly show its potential. Do you think politicians or militaries would (still) be kind of gambling on playing ´oops, if we had known just how powerfull these are...´ when the death-toll comes up?

The only difference in not dropping the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki for the cold war might be hokkaido getting soviet occupied and be turned over to the west for some barter - maybe south corea. And then from there, of course... so maybe no corea war?

The military knew of the power of the bomb, and loved it.

The civilians and politicians on the other hand, read the reports from Hiroshima and Nagasaki (reporters were quick to the scene following the Japanese surrender, and the Japanese themselves had also sent investigators of their own right after the attacks) and many were quite shocked about the medical side-effects - such as blinding from the flash, blasting the skin off by the heat and pressure wave, turning the bodies of near-survivors into something like peeled sausages, and then the radiation sickness later on, which caused thousands of survivors who looked like they were on their way to get better, to die. The reports of those effects were felt to be quite upsetting (to non-miltary) and would give a-bombs their image as terrible weapons from hell.

Sadly, those sort of effects will not be known at all, if the bombs are only ever tested in the desert. Thus, they will not have such a public image, and politicians will more easily give in to generals who clamor for their use, especially when it looks like the US is currently looking weak abroad.

 

[jamhaw]

The Soviets wouldn't have the A-bomb first, they would just announce it first.

And I still don't understand how or why that would happen, you've seen Dr. Strangelove I trust. 'Why would you keep it a secret!'