What happens if Germany stops at the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1939?

[Secret Master]

I know that various national focuses in the game may lead up to various foreign policy events, but leaving aside the implications of not taking the final steps towards Danzig or War, I'm wondering what are the possible economic and foreign policy outcomes for Germany should she stop after creating the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia in March of 1939? Obviously, this assumes that Germany is not already committed to a war of conquest against the Soviets and that all other actions are subordinate to this goal.

If I read the economic situation correctly, Germany would have to slow down military production at this point and shift the economy back towards civilian production. But does Germany have any trade options left at this point to keep her industries fully fueled? I'm hazy on the details (and I don't have Tooze with me at the moment), but I seem to recall that most of Germany's non-Central European trade was gone by this point. Is Germany setting itself up for failure by just stopping at Czechoslovakia, because she needs to continue conquest? Or is there hope for an early M-R Pact and trade agreement with the Soviets? (After all, I think Hitler gives a speech on March 10th saying that he could give the Soviets a better deal than the French and British.)

And what happens with France, Britain, and the Soviets? I don't think the French or British could get public support for an offensive war even at this point, but is the clock ticking one way or another? We know that World Tension drops over time... Is there a possibility that the British could get support for an intervention by 1941 even without Danzig or War? What about the French? Or is it better for them to wait it out and engage in economic and diplomatic warfare, trying to keep Germany contained?

 

[Anichent]

A lot could happen. I imagine one possibility is the USSR invades Poland forcing Germany and the Soviets into a confrontation with Germany more on a back foot. The anti-comintern pact would likely grow into a larger and stronger alliance and then you'd have some sort of Soviet-Axis war or maybe even a Soviet-Allies war.

 

[noobeless]

Its an interesting question. In my thoughts i want to point this out before answering.

1. The Soviet Union is a wildcard. If they decide to go to war if Finland or annex the Baltic states. it can end in a Soviet Union Vs. Allied backed Germany/Japan to counter the Soviet aggression.
Hitler can abuse it to get help by the allied to "reduce" the Soviet Union to an acceptable size. (Annex a huge part of the Soviet union, to then turn against his former "Friends, or it will end in a cold war scenario if the nuke is invented in the mean time.)

2. Germany will after the annexation of Czechoslovakia serve as an buffer state between the Soviet union and France, either because of the fear of the Soviet Union is larger then the German, or because Hitler use Anti-Soviet Propaganda to make the allies more aligned towards Germany as a defense against communism. (The Communist did not hide their ambition of world domination)

There are other scenarios, but for now i will just tell these two short versions.

 

[agentgb]

Well if were saying that germany stopped at the Sudetenland, there may be the possibiliy that they would have maintained there Nazi sympathisers, along with connections with the elite & business circles from mainly the US & UK, Henry Ford was notable for doing business with the Nazi's, there also the fact that the germans had gained back the Rhur, while also taking back the rhineland.

Hitler needing somthing to unify the german people, would probably do has expected in hitlers fashion, using a cause or a boogeyman, but if Danzig is of the cards, i'd imagine he would attempt to champion the cause of alerting the world of the danger of the bolshevik & jews.

Now germany is not sharing a border with Russia, so if any showdown is to happen with Russia, it would probably be because of a intervention or defensive war unless the poles decided to give military access, which i very much doubt, unless hitler could convince poland that russia was a major threat. But if Hitler was patient, and continued to emit propaganda about the russians to the world stage, it would only take somthing like the winter war before all eyes would have been upon stalin & hitler sounding right, which could potentially lead to a coalition or intervention from germany in the finnish winter war, which would be justified.

I know that Britain supported the finns in the winter war by sending them tanks, even the late christopher lee joined the finnish army, some americans went to help, so it quite possible we would have let the germans fight the russians in finland, and although churchill would have continued to show his mistrust for hitler, the pragmatic man he was, he would have seen the benefit, since churchill was no fan of the communist himself.

 

[Bryartuck]

It depends on whether Italy is in the Axis. They are liable to do something stupid in the Balkans (as they did IRL), and push WT over the edge. If they are not in the Axis, Germany may be able to sit back and let them get stomped by the Allies. It might be interesting to try just to see what happens.

 

[Rithral]

The soviet winter war with Finland is the spark that starts WWII.

If that doesn't start the war then Soviet expansion into Estonia/Lativa/Lithuania starts the ball rolling.

 

[Axe99]

You're just a kindler, gentler kind of person, eh Secret Master? .

From the look of how the mechanics work, and assuming non-historical mode (as a non-player Germany presumably wouldn't stop in historical mode, and a player Germany is just trying to confuse the AI if they do this in historical mode), my punt would be that if Germany stopped after Bohemia and Moravia, and someone else (Japan, Italy, USSR, the USA through one of its more off-the-wall national focus options) kicked off proceedings, then I expect at some stage a non-player Germany would become involved, but that a player Germany (as long as they weren't the direct target of someone) could stay out of it hopefully for the whole game. Sounds like something that would be very interesting to try .

 

[hkrommel]

If Germany goes with the "Slovakia for Danzig" NF and allies Poland, then look for the USSR to be the aggressor. If that happens, then the German-Polish alliance (possibly with Hungary and Italy thrown in, possibly some other nations too) would likely see the Allies open up trade with them significantly. The UK and France would be more than happy to have Germans and Poles destroy the Soviet menace so they don't have too. If the Soviets do too well, then look for lend-lease (possibly from the US as well), and if the situation is dire, direct involvement.

TL;DR if Germany stops, the Soviets start, and Germany gets a lot more trade since they're fighting the commies so other nations don't have to.

 

[BBBD316]

Well I assume that as hkrommel notes that you would ally the Poles or you can't go any further on the tree. I assume with Italy, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria and perhaps Romania and Yugoslavia that you would still be able to do some trades and would be the real Anti-Comintern Pact.

So the Soviets have 3 options, attack Finland. attack/annex the Baltic states, attack Poland. or all three. If it does the first 2 then it may find itself at war with the West first. Though it would be fairly limited as they can not get to each other. Then as Germany you go for broke, leave the Poles to get the stuffing beaten out of them and annexed and then counter-attack to Moscow.

 

[adam_grif]

It is a much better outcome for the Nazis, definitely. They would be allowed to remain in power unless some kind of coup or revolution took them out of it. Hitler has his personal power more or less locked down, since the territorial acquisitions were quite popular. Stalin would very likely not go on wars of conquest without the cover of an Anglo/Franco - German war to provide a major global distraction, nor would he likely initiate an offensive war against the Germans if it was a strictly 1v1 affair. The Soviets would very likely win, but Stalin was cautious and it was not totally clear at the time that this would be the case - nor would it be a victory without great cost. I say very likely only because the Soviet total mobilization and the mass support of the populace was at least in part contingent on it being a defensive war where everybody knew that the alternative to victory was destruction. An offensive war that goes badly (initially) or requires the total support of the population may result in bad things for Stalin, internally to the party, and if it is not a war of anihilation, then a negotiated peace may be possible for the Germans (although total German victory = definitely not happening).

Economically, relations would eventually normalize with the West and Germany, but it would not be pretty for a long time.

 

[inteljoe]

East vs West vs Central Europe?

 

[Federkiel]

IIRC, the annexation of czechosolvakia was the one step too far which had set the Allies into kind of a 'prepare for war' mode. They - including Poland - geared up seriously and started to mobilise for the remainder of time until the war actually began. I would consider this a 'cold war phase' as all sides manouvered themselves into a good situation for the case of the outbreak of the war. This included diplomatic efforts as well. Since (full) mobilisation is a pretty costly endeavor this could not be kept on forever - by no one. Either the sides would clash or things would slowly return to a less alerting state. I believe it to be different from the real post cold war because of the different situation. Enmity was likely but could possibly be averted. Also there was no ultimate threat for everyone and distance played a role in the mood of feeling threatened by someone. Most nations and their citizens hoped for a war not to happen. Therefore non-alliance national agendas were being followed still. The indifference becomes visible in the British initial plan to actively fight against the USSR in the Finnish winter war - despite they already were at war Germany at this time.

Thus Germany could have hoped for the situation to return to a less combative state after the annexation. But it could not return back to a normal state it had after the Munich agreement anytime soon. Only if a more threatening aggressor showed up like USSR could be one. A direct cooperation to counter Communism would have been unlikely i think, and Europe would have been dividied into a number of fronts with Germany defending the center and the Allies trying to protect the far north and the Balkans (as their spheres of interest). But one may doubt whether Stalin would have risked being at war with the rest of the world without the other nations weakening each other beforehand.


There would have been consequences for the pacific theatre as well. With the occupation of Indochina the Japanese started to threaten Allied and US bases and interests in south east Asia. Without Vichy France this would not have happened as France with it's military machine and it's Allies would still be there and stand as a more or less united front.

As i said above, i think the Munich agreement made for a possible lasting peace between the western/central European powers. Crossing the lines from there and breaking the treaty actually ended the balance of power to preserve peace.

 

[Red Roo]

(The Communist did not hide their ambition of world domination)
.

Except, you know, Socialism in one state...

 

[frolix42]

I think the idea that @Secret Master might be pondering is the strategy of playing Germany in the historically aggressive way up to the point of diverging from history, by ceasing aggression, at the last possible moment before war with the Allies is inevitable.

So I think @Federkiel is right on. In my opinion the ideal moment to for German to tack towards peace wouldn't be after the March '39 partition of Czechoslovakia, but instead after the 30 Sep 1938 Munich Agreement. Once the Germans annexed Studetenland, the British and French were waiting for the Germans to disarm so they could in turn avoid rearming. Negotiations with Poland over the Danzig corridor were still ongoing until March 1939. It seems to me that it's the annexation of Studenland that would be more likely the theoretical point at which Nazi Germany could still have had a peaceful co-existence with the Allies.

But Germany didn't disarm after Munich and consequently Britain and France continued to build up their military. Then partitioning Czechoslovakia was humiliating for Britain and France and accelerated Allied rearmament, the Polish government leaked German territorial demands to their public which enraged Polish public opinion against Germany. The date when Poland officially formed an alliance with the UK and France was 31 March 1939 and I don't think that's a coincidence. The semi-official resource embargo by Britain and France, targeted against Germany's rearmament, was intensified in March 1939. Germany began to lose relative strength against the allies roughly around when they partitioned Czech, so it's a bad place to stop aggression and expect a positive outcome.

It's going to be interesting how threat is going to be balanced with re-armament and unlocking national focuses in HoI4.

 

[Vukodav]

I know that various national focuses in the game may lead up to various foreign policy events, but leaving aside the implications of not taking the final steps towards Danzig or War, I'm wondering what are the possible economic and foreign policy outcomes for Germany should she stop after creating the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia in March of 1939? Obviously, this assumes that Germany is not already committed to a war of conquest against the Soviets and that all other actions are subordinate to this goal.

If I read the economic situation correctly, Germany would have to slow down military production at this point and shift the economy back towards civilian production. But does Germany have any trade options left at this point to keep her industries fully fueled? I'm hazy on the details (and I don't have Tooze with me at the moment), but I seem to recall that most of Germany's non-Central European trade was gone by this point. Is Germany setting itself up for failure by just stopping at Czechoslovakia, because she needs to continue conquest? Or is there hope for an early M-R Pact and trade agreement with the Soviets? (After all, I think Hitler gives a speech on March 10th saying that he could give the Soviets a better deal than the French and British.)

And what happens with France, Britain, and the Soviets? I don't think the French or British could get public support for an offensive war even at this point, but is the clock ticking one way or another? We know that World Tension drops over time... Is there a possibility that the British could get support for an intervention by 1941 even without Danzig or War? What about the French? Or is it better for them to wait it out and engage in economic and diplomatic warfare, trying to keep Germany contained?

As far as economy goes, Germany had a lot of options. Whole eastern and south-eastern Europe depended heavily on German tech while providing Germany with raw resources. Countries like Yugoslavia, Romania and Turkey provided a lot of raw materials, and we also have Soviet Union that was very happy to buy any and all German tech and machines for resources. So economy would be fine - there was a market for everything Germany would make. Western nations had colonies anyway.

But in the long run, Germany, and the rest of Europe itself, would face the Soviet invasion in later years. Stalin was preparing for the conquest, there is no doubt about it. When you see the scale of industrialization, weapons production (the type of weapons) and military installations it is clear what the end goal for Soviet Union was.

Worth noting is that Sudetenland was German by population but the rest of Czechoslovakia was not. If Hitler took Sudetenland and not the rest of Czechoslovakia, there might have been a possibility for an agreement between Poland and Germany about the Danzig corridor. But when Germany took non-German region, the mask fell. So who knows.

 

[Swinds]

Very boring game

 

[Killerrabbit]

I don't know what will happen in HoI4, but in real life, the economy would have started to collapse.

The nazi economy was not one built for peacetime, and the massive army and arms industry could not have been sustained. They had already exhausted their goodwill and extracted as much loans and credit as possible from the western powers. Before taking Austria, they had almost run out of foreign currency, and the austrian and later, czech reserves was what kept them running as they further expanded their war machine. For the nazis to hold their grip on the german population, they had to attack, and attack and attack, simply because it was a destructive system that isn't sustainable, like Napoleon's France.

 

[noobeless]

Except, you know, Socialism in one state...

Socialism is not communism.
Socialist believed in a peaceful change over time.
Communism is a radical offspring of communism, that believe that only to arms and open revolt.
PS. Your comment is off topic. its about:
What happens if Germany stops at the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1939?
Not about the socialist ideology did not have ambitions of world domination.

 

[Secret Master]

It depends on whether Italy is in the Axis. They are liable to do something stupid in the Balkans (as they did IRL), and push WT over the edge. If they are not in the Axis, Germany may be able to sit back and let them get stomped by the Allies. It might be interesting to try just to see what happens.

So, WWII in this scenario becomes The War Mussolini Accidentally Started, Thank God He Didn't Have Nukes.

You're just a kindler, gentler kind of person, eh Secret Master? .

Perhaps I am.

From the look of how the mechanics work, and assuming non-historical mode (as a non-player Germany presumably wouldn't stop in historical mode, and a player Germany is just trying to confuse the AI if they do this in historical mode), my punt would be that if Germany stopped after Bohemia and Moravia, and someone else (Japan, Italy, USSR, the USA through one of its more off-the-wall national focus options) kicked off proceedings, then I expect at some stage a non-player Germany would become involved, but that a player Germany (as long as they weren't the direct target of someone) could stay out of it hopefully for the whole game. Sounds like something that would be very interesting to try .

Hmm, does the Slovakia for Danzig NF work if you annex Czechoslovakia along historical lines? If it does, that might be the best "win" condition for Germany.

Well I assume that as hkrommel notes that you would ally the Poles or you can't go any further on the tree. I assume with Italy, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria and perhaps Romania and Yugoslavia that you would still be able to do some trades and would be the real Anti-Comintern Pact.

So the Soviets have 3 options, attack Finland. attack/annex the Baltic states, attack Poland. or all three. If it does the first 2 then it may find itself at war with the West first. Though it would be fairly limited as they can not get to each other. Then as Germany you go for broke, leave the Poles to get the stuffing beaten out of them and annexed and then counter-attack to Moscow.

I can't see Germany letting the Soviets annex Poland without intervention unless the Poles did something really dumb (which is unlikely in a scenario where Germany makes nice with them). But do you really think the Soviets are looking for a fight that early?

Economically, relations would eventually normalize with the West and Germany, but it would not be pretty for a long time.

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I take your point that relations might normalize eventually, but probably not in the timeframe of the game.

As i said above, i think the Munich agreement made for a possible lasting peace between the western/central European powers. Crossing the lines from there and breaking the treaty actually ended the balance of power to preserve peace.

But it doesn't sound like you think the British and French are going to actually force the issue with a war. Just an ugly cold war scenario.

 

[BBBD316]

SM I was not suggesting that the Germans IRL would if they allied with Poland, more what I plan to do as Germany. After all I will need access directly into my new Russian lands.

In IRL I agree with Killerrabbit, the economy was doomed without war. However in the game you want to get WT up to just under the democracies DW limit and then let Russia push it over so the allies go after them and not you.