What does "Unlikely" mean?

[TrueCoppa]

I often find it confusing how Paradox decided to use a generic label for certain ranges of possibilities for a diplomatic action to be accepted instead of pure numbers. So, how likely is "Very unlikely, unlikely, maybe and likely" ? (I am assuming impossible is always 0% acceptance chance and Very Likely is always 100% acceptance chance)

AT the moment I have a vassal and demanding annexation is always at "Unlikely". I have tried to annex them 15 times and they reject every time, what are the actual numbers behind the labels?

 

[maxirage]

From my experience unlikely is about 20%, maybe is 50%, and likely is 80%. Typically it takes 5 tries to succeed at an unlikely event, and failing 15 times like you mention is an outlier. Maybe somebody else has official figures.

 

[brifbates]

From my experience unlikely is about 20%, maybe is 50%, and likely is 80%. Typically it takes 5 tries to succeed at an unlikely event, and failing 15 times like you mention is an outlier. Maybe somebody else has official figures.

That sounds about right although I'd say maybe runs more like 40%, likely is 75, and very likely is ~95.

For most actions unlikely is generally worth taking the chance. Unless you have a large SoI dip bonus and a high dip ruler you aren't likely to see much better than that for diploannexing.

 

[ZomgK3tchup]

For most actions unlikely is generally worth taking the chance. Unless you have a large SoI dip bonus and a high dip ruler you aren't likely to see much better than that for diploannexing.

I think it deals a lot with infamy too. I get "Maybe" a lot from my vassals to the point that I sometimes diplo-annex just to get rid of the "You have a good chance of diplo-annexing" icon.

 

[unmerged(432880)]

Think of it this way: you generally have a decent chance provided it isn't Impossible or Very Unlikely. Anything else generally works in a few attempts.

 

[Vegose]

impossible is a non zero chance, probably one percent. Earlier I had my ally join a war even though it said impossible. ( I was hoping he would betray me )

 

[Pewt]

I think it deals a lot with infamy too. I get "Maybe" a lot from my vassals to the point that I sometimes diplo-annex just to get rid of the "You have a good chance of diplo-annexing" icon.

The odds of diploannexing go up a lot with time, so eventually your vassals will become very likely to annex even with poor diplomatic skill.

 

[Lord Finnish]

The odds of diploannexing go up a lot with time, so eventually your vassals will become very likely to annex even with poor diplomatic skill.

Must be helluva wait since the longest I've waited was 200 years to annexed OPM Moldavia as fully restored Byzantium and they said "Maybe".