That's what I thought could be the problem as well, but now I wait for the next month to tick before I release them and it still happens regularly.
I'd do a bunch of tests to find out the actual cause, but I really have no idea at this point
What I do find interesting is that, when we talked about it in the other thread, you were able to go straight off and re-create it in a new test. Judging from the time stamps, it took you less than an hour to re-create - including the time to post about it.
Yet I haven't had it happen even once, and couldn't re-create it in more than an hour of specifically trying to; using the same nations you did it with (Maya, and Aztec, Inca, Creek.)
I wonder if there's some particular thing that you and Morgan are doing during conquest that I'm never doing, something seemingly unimportant that could be (sometimes) the trigger. Or it might be specific CBs or something like that. When I tested for it specifically, I used no CB.
Last time I did wonder if it was related to allies (because in your test, Maya who kept their AE on release, were allied to Aztec. I don't suppose you recall if Maya remained WL when you DOW'd them? Maybe WL changed to Aztec - and that could never happen in my tests because I always used no CB.
It's probably something along those lines: some particular trigger, like WL changing or a specific CB. Definitely a minority case.