what are the chances the USSR refuses the "The Montreux Convention"?

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Jan 24, 2019
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what are the chances they will refuse and war you?

is it any different historical vs ahistorical?


I have a very weird idea i haven't seen done yet with the new turkey. Im trying to get the soviet union to war me at the beginning of the game using the Montreux Convention event.

i think with a combination of the right generals, research, and use of the focus tree you could potentially take out russia before ww2 begins. I am just trying to figure out whether or not historical or ahistorical has a higher chance of the soviets refusing.
 
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i have done 10 ahistorical games so far, and they have backed down every time. regardless of what the UK does.
 
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i played 6 historical games lastnight, and they back down everytime.

How is it so hard to get the soviet union to stand up for themselves lmao?

i found the event inside the focus tree files for turkey, but i cannot seem to find anything related to the outcome of what the soviet ai decides to choose.
 
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what are the chances they will refuse and war you?
The probability they back down after you are defiant is 85% without historical AI focus, 100% with historical focus. Keep in mind that you'll always get the same result when reloading a save file and triggering the event at the same time.
 
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The probability they back down after you are defiant is 85% without historical AI focus, 100% with historical focus. Keep in mind that you'll always get the same result when reloading a save file and triggering the event at the same time.


ive been restarting ironman every time.

so its a 15% chance they will take the war option on ahistorical. 0% on historical.

that makes sense, considering i played a few more ahistorical today and had 1 game where they chose the war option.

do you happen to know where in the code i can look to find this? i spent a good while yesterday trying to find it and had no luck.
 
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do you happen to know where in the code i can look to find this? i spent a good while yesterday trying to find it and had no luck.
You follow the chain of country_event triggers:
  • common/national_focus/turkey.txt:44: ENG = { country_event = { id = bftb_turkey.1 } }i -> search for id = bftb_turkey.1 in events/BFTB_Turkey.txt
  • events/BFTB_Turkey.txt:36&58: SOV = { country_event = { id = bftb_turkey.4 hours = 12 } }
  • events/BFTB_Turkey.txt:113: country_event = { id = bftb_turkey.5 hours = 8 }
  • events/BFTB_Turkey.txt:189: SOV = { country_event = { id = bftb_turkey.10 hours = 8 } }
  • events/BFTB_Turkey.txt:318-335:
    • name = bftb_turkey.10.a #an invasion is too risky
      • ai_chance = { factor = 85 }
    • name = bftb_turkey.10.b #an excuse to finally make the Straits our own!
      • ai_chance = { factor = 15 modifier = { is_historical_focus_on = yes factor = 0 }}
 
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You follow the chain of country_event triggers:
  • common/national_focus/turkey.txt:44: ENG = { country_event = { id = bftb_turkey.1 } }i -> search for id = bftb_turkey.1 in events/BFTB_Turkey.txt
  • events/BFTB_Turkey.txt:36&58: SOV = { country_event = { id = bftb_turkey.4 hours = 12 } }
  • events/BFTB_Turkey.txt:113: country_event = { id = bftb_turkey.5 hours = 8 }
  • events/BFTB_Turkey.txt:189: SOV = { country_event = { id = bftb_turkey.10 hours = 8 } }
  • events/BFTB_Turkey.txt:318-335:
    • name = bftb_turkey.10.a #an invasion is too risky
      • ai_chance = { factor = 85 }
    • name = bftb_turkey.10.b #an excuse to finally make the Straits our own!
      • ai_chance = { factor = 15 modifier = { is_historical_focus_on = yes factor = 0 }}
Thank you! i appreciate it! happy thanksgiving
 
Well it worked.

only problem comes with the absolutely broken warscore system.

i spent 4 years at war with the soviets. racked up 4.8m casualities. then began pushing.

germany declares war and just walks through the, now absolutely obliterated soviet army. And they instantly take all the war score. FFS im so tired of this shit. a great game of hoi4 ruined yet again by something that should have been addressed by now.

so for now, until we get some kind of rework of warscore, the only way to do this is to end the war somehow before germany declares, but i dont think there is really any way of knowing when this will happen as it has to be ahistorical

20201127175934_1.jpg
 
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post peace conference. i was able to still get most of russia out of it, just unfortunately not moscow or any of the good industry areas.
20201127182150_1.jpg


you can definitely take out russia quicker than this.

If i tried this again i would change a bit of the strategy, and would make much better use of my mountaineers for incirclements against irans border.
 
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