Because Lord_D might be not wolf but sorcerer instead?
But I doubt GM would hand it to one of baddies since the very beginning.
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But I doubt GM would hand it to one of baddies since the very beginning.
Well, here, from what I've seen, it's the opposite. Villagers even go out of their way to make a four-tie, to get the baddies to win faster 
Randakar, you do have a point, although i initially thought otherwise. In OY voting, we hit a villager, who happened to be 6 nights from turning, but for all we knew, it could be turning on the following night, and killing villagers in this game is considered a decent course of action, narrowing down the list of scans/powers (and also hunts and curses, though).
However, voting Lord_D is another matter. First, as long as he got the cross, he won't descend into wolfness. Second, he might even have a role. Third, the wolves aren't likely to hunt him, as he will probably even get extra protection, and if I was a wolf, I would let him hug that piece of wood, and search for other targets. To be remarked though that, as a wolf, I'd prefer the cross to sit with him, knowing fully well where it is, so the chances of failing another hunt or scan are minimized, and this fact alone saves jopi from being seen as a wolf by me (or at least not being a very bright one). He's most likely a villager, afraid of growing fur, but he could also be a desperate (and selfish) seer/priest wanting protection from the wolves.
Edit - Emu'ed by cobaltblue, who has a good point indeed. Shall I unvote and go for him?
Randakar, you do have a point, although i initially thought otherwise. In OY voting, we hit a villager, who happened to be 6 nights from turning, but for all we knew, it could be turning on the following night, and killing villagers in this game is considered a decent course of action, narrowing down the list of scans/powers (and also hunts and curses, though).
However, voting Lord_D is another matter. First, as long as he got the cross, he won't descend into wolfness. Second, he might even have a role. Third, the wolves aren't likely to hunt him, as he will probably even get extra protection, and if I was a wolf, I would let him hug that piece of wood, and search for other targets. To be remarked though that, as a wolf, I'd prefer the cross to sit with him, knowing fully well where it is, so the chances of failing another hunt or scan are minimized, and this fact alone saves jopi from being seen as a wolf by me (or at least not being a very bright one). He's most likely a villager, afraid of growing fur, but he could also be a desperate (and selfish) seer/priest wanting protection from the wolves.
Edit - Emu'ed by cobaltblue, who has a good point indeed. Shall I unvote and go for him?
I had a post typed out, but the imbecillic forum told me the token had expired or something, swallowing the message too :S
I frankly can't be ***ed to retype it all. Every day I love this forum less and less!!
Vote Yoenit because random.
I frankly can't be ***ed to retype it all. Every day I love this forum less and less!!
Vote Yoenit because random.
Ctrl + A and Ctrl + C each time you are about posting message, just in case!
So why is nobody voting you?
Exactly.
We have at least 4 nights in this game to find a wolf, according to the game rules. But that will go straight out the window if we TIE villagers.
Great piece of analysis. I concur. Jopi is a bad target.
Anyway, just to add something to this interesting mix: I have been in contact with the psychic since yesterday, and he tells me we (still) have two wolves in the game.
(I am not the Psychic. I just know who it is. Or at least who claims to be it, and I have good reasons to trust this claim.)
If I add jopi and lord_d to this list I now have a list of 4 people who are highly unlikely to be baddies due to various circumstances. Not bad for two days work
Unvote Jopi
Go for who?!?
Meant Lord_D, but not going for him anymore. Chances are too slim he is a warlock, although i'm keeping my ears open. Also, you may draw some conclusions if I happen to die ("tape revealed upon death" plot device ftw).
Two wolves... how do I know I can trust that info? I was betting on 3 wolves, although 2 is not too out-of-the-box (and indicates some mercy by the GM towards the village, in this timeframe). Anyway, the psychic isn't too useful in this part of the game, will get more use as people get eliminated (provided he doesn't snuff it too, that is).
About the ties, doing some simple math, and going by your hypothesis of two wolves, we got 3 baddies, 4+ good roles(although, this being a "small Big game", I would bet on just 4), and the rest are villagers. Picking two opposite scenarios, one where two villagers hold the cross and the knife, and one where both those artifacts are out of the hands of the villagers (btw, it has come to my mind that the knife may already be in the hands of a wolf, due to the first night kill, quite unlikely, but not impossible).
So, we got 3/16 chances of hitting a baddie (less than 1/5), 7/16 of hitting a villager who would eventually turn, and 6/16 of hitting an un-turnable person.
The other option yields 3/16 of hitting a baddie, 9/16 of hitting a villager, and 4/16 of hitting an un-turnable person.
Not good odds for ties indeed, even considering that lynching someone with item will cause it to be passed around the village (both to roles, and non-roles, losing half it's powers in the first case).
Wondering in the warlock has already found the wolves by now... and keeping my vote on the inactive.
One last thing, looking around these foruns, doing my homework, one of the things I found out is that justice leagues are not to be trusted in regular games, let alone one where villagers turn into wolves...
Cobalt, starting to think that line is meant for myself, after all...
Two wolves... how do I know I can trust that info? I was betting on 3 wolves, although 2 is not too out-of-the-box (and indicates some mercy by the GM towards the village, in this timeframe). Anyway, the psychic isn't too useful in this part of the game, will get more use as people get eliminated (provided he doesn't snuff it too, that is).
About the ties, doing some simple math, and going by your hypothesis of two wolves, we got 3 baddies, 4+ good roles(although, this being a "small Big game", I would bet on just 4), and the rest are villagers. Picking two opposite scenarios, one where two villagers hold the cross and the knife, and one where both those artifacts are out of the hands of the villagers (btw, it has come to my mind that the knife may already be in the hands of a wolf, due to the first night kill, quite unlikely, but not impossible).
So, we got 3/16 chances of hitting a baddie (less than 1/5), 7/16 of hitting a villager who would eventually turn, and 6/16 of hitting an un-turnable person.
The other option yields 3/16 of hitting a baddie, 9/16 of hitting a villager, and 4/16 of hitting an un-turnable person.
Not good odds for ties indeed, even considering that lynching someone with item will cause it to be passed around the village (both to roles, and non-roles, losing half it's powers in the first case).
Wondering in the warlock has already found the wolves by now... and keeping my vote on the inactive.
One last thing, looking around these foruns, doing my homework, one of the things I found out is that justice leagues are not to be trusted in regular games, let alone one where villagers turn into wolves...
cobaltblue said:
Cobalt, starting to think that line is meant for myself, after all...
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Vote Jonti OMGUS!
Now more seriously. Why would Randakar reveal he has been in contact with the Psychic at this point? That we have two wolves is not really useful information and he is just making himself a target.
Yes, it's not really useful, except to prove a point about ties being bad. And, as I said, justice leagues are never to be trusted... and right now, the wolves got plenty of potential targets, and some frustration from the failed kill, last night.
I am always a target. And I always try to work for the village and get information out there if possible, or at least the bits that do not endanger important goodie roles. I am a villager, and therefore expendable. The Psychic himself is not. Since a few games ago I found out sending people PM's in order to get them to reveal little bits of information can be really rewarding, especially for a villager.
Though it is bad for my average life expectancy as a villager, I admit
That, and it may be useful later in the game. You never know.
As for justice leagues .. I am not, exactly, part of a justice league. You need to know scanners for that, and I don't. I know the psychic but you yourself point out it isn't much use right now. I have some other PM contacts but nothing really worthwhile except that I feel some of them can be trusted not to be wolves. At least not yet
Well, pm me then, so I can consider myself out of your list of suspects too
Point is, even if we believe you are nothing but a poor villager, there's still the little big question of you turning to the dark side and using that info for your new mates.
Oh, so you think the Seer would just come to you and say "hello, I'm the seer, let's work together". If the seer is clever, it will atleast wait until having made sure of two targets, and only then start divulging his role (less chance of screwing up with pm's, also good if he got enough influence to get a tie). And even so...
I don't know what to do with you randakar, honestly... maybe I'll find some time to study your patterns from other WW games, Mentat style
Still, enough with this, we are focusing way too much on some select people, and probably missing the bigger picture. Let's get those vote counts up.
Point is, even if we believe you are nothing but a poor villager, there's still the little big question of you turning to the dark side and using that info for your new mates.
Oh, so you think the Seer would just come to you and say "hello, I'm the seer, let's work together". If the seer is clever, it will atleast wait until having made sure of two targets, and only then start divulging his role (less chance of screwing up with pm's, also good if he got enough influence to get a tie). And even so...
I don't know what to do with you randakar, honestly... maybe I'll find some time to study your patterns from other WW games, Mentat style
Still, enough with this, we are focusing way too much on some select people, and probably missing the bigger picture. Let's get those vote counts up.
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I apologize for my recent inactivity, yesterday I became full member of my fraternity - in the process of which my now fellow-members did their best at destroying me both physically and psychologically - but that is now all over and I'll focus on this game
I apologize for my recent inactivity, yesterday I became full member of my fraternity - in the process of which my now fellow-members did their best at destroying me both physically and psychologically - but that is now all over and I'll focus on this game
Congratulations
Well, pm me then, so I can consider myself out of your list of suspects too
It doesn't quite work that way, unfortunately. Feel free to PM me and tell me anything you like, but in the end whether I believe you depends entirely on the circumstances.
True. That is a possibility. Which is exactly why I *still* want the Holy Cross - I know too much by now
A good seer doesn't tell anyone anything he doesn't need to know. Full stop. However, what I am talking about is all the other things where people say or do things that gives me a good reason to believe they are not wolves. I don't *want* to know who the seer is. What I want to figure out is who the wolves (and other associated baddies) are. Getting people cleared is not as effective as having proof that somebody is a wolf .. but I am not a Seer so clearing people will have to do as a good runner up.
I don't know what to do with you randakar, honestly... maybe I'll find some time to study your patterns from other WW games, Mentat style
Have fun
Yes please.
You even know that your question is a rhetoric, right?
For me, it starts with "how come this Psychic trust randakar shortly?"
The left scenarios are 1.) it's randakar's trick to figure out the goodies since he is only villager, 2.) it's randakar's trick to hide the 3rd wolf's existence, 3.) it's not randakar's trick but that self-claimed Psychic' trick, or 4.) it's not randakar's trick and not that self-claimed Psychic's trick either.
Last scenario is only possible if randakar is more known for playing as goodie which always seems like baddie at the beginning of the game. If this is the reason why Psychic PM'd randakar, then our Psychic must be someone who knows randakar's experience - but this theory only applies if that self-claimed Psychic is really a Psychic and randakar does tell the truth that someone PM'd him. But again, if it is true, then what this Psychic just did is not really one I'd expect from him. He/she needs more basis before entrusting someone such information.
Not sure, but I get a feeling that I should not trust information that "we only have 2 wolves right now". Imma save it for later.
Heh, funny. I played as Seer once but I did both - spreading baits to figure out the villagers then scanning those who are left unconfirmed. I simply did not want to let my scan as a waste by scanning innocents - although being too obvious that you play as power-role has its own risk.
Anyway, I'm still sticking with my current vote because of randomness. Saintis hasn't been proven as innocent for me.
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Guilty until proven innocent? Shouldn't it go the other way around? Amoral, "presque animalesque" (nearly beast-worthy) line of behavior, I'd say...
I can see how easily that might go wrong...
you got a point, there. Randakar hasn't provided a satisfactory explanation, and he seems too unafraid to say that kind of thing. Kamikaze behavior, martyrdom, or just certainty of support from furry friends?
I see no reason for him to do this. First, he should know his claims won't be accepted by the majority without further proof. His claims also make him suspicious to both wolf and man. Here, according to this theory, he knows the wolves exact numbers, without being a psychic, so he would be a wolf or a warlock who got in touch with them. But nothing explains why would he want to make the village believe there are only two wolves. Doesn't strike me as rational, although humans aren't always rational in their actions...
The thing is, I *don't* want you to believe me right now. I simply don't care about the present. I take more of a long term view. In a few days people will be able to look back and then there is a good chance that people *are* able to believe me then. Either because I died (shit happens), because the psychic died (in which case I can post my PM's as proof), or for one of the many other possible reasons. In *that* case someone can put this information to use for the benefit of the village. I don't want this information to just die if for some reason the psychic or me snuffs it. It's much better to have it out there now.
cobaltblue said:
That's a good story which I will save up for some other time
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I'll just jump up and Vote Saintis.
Coz there ain't no party like a bandwagoned party?
Coz there ain't no party like a bandwagoned party?
Lord_D, that's quite curious of you, as if not for me and randakar, you would be the one to get bandwagoned
What was that commandment... "thou shall not do unto others what you wouldn't do unto yourself" (really crappy biblical english ftw)
What was that commandment... "thou shall not do unto others what you wouldn't do unto yourself" (really crappy biblical english ftw)
