Werewolf XC: The Racoon Police Department

[Slinky]

I'm going to do a bit of analysis later, but for starters
The 8 remaining players:

the_hdk
randakar
Tornadoli
Rysz
marty99
Slinky v2.0 (formerly Teep)
Lord Strange
Klass
J.Passepartout

I count nine

.... and it's spelled Klaas

 

[snoopdogg]

Whoever killed me has entered a world of pain!

 

[the_hdk]

Whoever killed me has entered a world of pain!

 

[jonti-h]

Whoever killed me has entered a world of pain!

Sorry

 

[Rysz]

I am a villager hunter, and that will make me a bad lynch. And would you really expect me when all kind of people are switching around between me and someone else, I would just vote a whole other person? What if the vote suddenly swinged completely, I would look rather stupid for not even trying to save myself, wouldn't I?

 

[marty99]

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

​

I spent half an hour on an uber-long post, but my internet disconnected and... it's gone... my baby's gone

But anyway, without showing any method whatsoever, here were my results

Bad lynches:
Klaas
J.Pass
LS
marty99
Randakar


Which IMHO leaves us with :
Rysz
Torn
Slinky
the-hdk

To lynch

Vote Slinky

I am a villager hunter, and that will make me a bad lynch. And would you really expect me when all kind of people are switching around between me and someone else, I would just vote a whole other person? What if the vote suddenly swinged completely, I would look rather stupid for not even trying to save myself, wouldn't I?

Well I'm sorry, but saying you're not a wolf without any proof whatsoever doesn't exactly clear you
As to the second part, yeah, but it still doesn't clear you (although I'll retract that it makes you suspicious)

 

[J. Passepartout]

I am probably not going to be able to change my vote due to my work schedule so be warned.

VOTE TORNADOLI

 

[Ciryandor]

Calamity = baddie. Who would have thought?

 

[randakar]

Unvote Rysz


Rysz, how about you prove your claim sometime soon?
Analyse this game, figure out who might be a baddie, and shoot them.



Vote the_hdk


For his "You better be right" post. If such a remark is a baddie tell on me it may very well be a baddie tell on someone else. By rights, it should be.

(And now I'm going to take a look at the spreadsheet)

edit: Sheet now has pretty colours. I removed all empty columns from all past days, too.
View it here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?...2JOMmdJVlE&authkey=CIX9qp0M&hl=en&output=html

 

[randakar]

Alright. Let's see what we can find.
Looking at living players and snoopdogg (since we don't know anything about him).


Day 1
Bandwagons and throwaways
- J-Pass votes thistle.
- HDK votes jonti, bandwagoning him.
- Torn votes Randakar.
- Rysz votes Velasco.
- Lord Strange votes ThistleTooth.
None of those ever move.

Interesting stuff
- Klaas votes Kriszo, tying him with Snoopdogg. After that he never moves. Doubt he's part of the government pack.

Other
- Snoopdogg votes lemeard and then jonti, then stops moving. Not much there imho.
- hdk gets some votes from trespoe and jonti. Again, not much there.
- Marty appears to not have voted that day. Error in the sheet?


Day 2
Bandwagons and throwaways
- J-Pass votes trespoe.
- Torn votes trespoe.

Interesting stuff
- HDK votes Calamity 'because he can'.
She is not in any danger at that stage. It's the first vote on her. Meanwhile Yakman has three votes.

- Rysz votes Yakman, putting him in the lead over Trespoe. That doesn't seem like the kind of thing an Umbrella pack member would do.
- Lord Strange bandwagons Yakman, putting him on 8 votes versus 6 (trespoe). That seals Yakman's doom imho. Not likely umbrella behaviour.
- Klaas votes Yakman, putting him on 10 versus 6. Overkill. If he was Umbrella it would have been clear "Fine, let's sacrifice the packmate" time.
- Marty initially votes trespoe, tying him with the Yak. Later he moves away from trespoe onto Velasco, making it 5 votes on trespoe versus the 10 on the Yak.
By that time it seems rather clear that Yakman will get lynched.


Day 3
Bandwagons and throwaways
- J. Pass votes trespoe
- Rysz votes EL
- Torn votes Emperor Walter, then later moves to Slinky

There isn't much here, the entire day was spend running up goodies. Almost everyone still alive was voting either slinky or thistle..


Day 4
This day is a total loss. All votes are stuck on 3 different villagers. There's nothing to see here, really.


Day 5
Bandwagons and throwaways
- hdk votes Tornadoli

Interesting stuff
- Tornadoli votes randakar initially ("For the Tie") - first time in the game he does that - and moves from there to Ciryandor later, when neither his current nor his former candidate are actually in danger.


Day 6
Bandwagons and throwaways:
Slinky votes Rysz
Rysz votes Snoopdogg

The easy bits:
People voting Kaetje: the_hdk, Lord Strange
People voting OY: marty99, J. Passepartout, Tornadoli

Interesting stuff:
J. Passepartout started off voting Kaetje, setting off a mini bandwagon on her. He was the one proposing to "Let's change", unvoting Kaetje in the process. (edit: He doesn't seem likely to be part of her pack though - see below)
Calamity votes hdk. A throwaway, but this late in the game it might mean something.


Day 7
People voting Calamity at the deadline:
Lord Strange, the_hdk, J. Passepartout, Klaas, Slinky, Rysz, Snoopdogg

Interesting stuff: HDK's and J. Passepartout's votes seemed to have been the deciding factor. When hdk moved to calamity snoopdogg was still in the lead. hdk changed that. Then J. Pass gave it another push, and soon it turned into a bandwagon. All the votes after that can basically be ignored, Calamity was already dead and the Umbrella folks must have realized that. Klaas, slinky and Rysz fall into this category.

We can't discount having some umbrella members hiding on that wagon at that stage, but I'm taking hdk off my suspect list for now.


All in all, it looks like this:

Not likely part of the Umbrella pack:
Rysz, Lord Strange, Tornadoli, the_hdk, J. Passepartout.

Not likely part of the Government pack:
Klaas, the_hdk, Lord Strange, J. Passepartout

Showing Umbrella pack behaviour:
Klaas, marty99, slinky v2

Showing Government pack behaviour:
.. we don't have much on them, do we?


edit: Note - this is all based on the votecounts. Nuances based on behaviour still need to be applied ;-)


Finally, one more thing. Since I'm putting all this work in to analyse this game, I may as well mention to the wolfies that I have a Holy Hand Granade - aka the Last Stand trait. Hunt me and you will regret it as I will not hesitate to pull that pin out.



Unvote the_hdk, Vote slinky v2

 

[Rysz]

Officer of the RPD (Hunter) - as an officer of the Raccoon City Police Department, it is your job to protect the citizens of our city. You can do this through arresting someone you feel has an ulterior motive (Only once however), or by using your weapons training to take down threatening monsters.
Last Stand - pulls the pin on a grenade when attacked. 45% chance of taking one of their attackers with them.

Finally, one more thing. Since I'm putting all this work in to analyse this game, I may as well mention to the wolfies that I have a Holy Hand Granade - aka the Last Stand trait. Hunt me and you will regret it as I will not hesitate to pull that pin out.

Hmm... Interesting trait. It seems like one of the two usual effects for the Hunter trait. Would that mean that I don't take a wolf with me when they eat me? Then how should I read the "by using your weapons training to take down threatening monsters". Because I read that as "shoots a wolf when being hunt-targeted". Or is it some action I need to PM the GM?

GM: Please more clarification on the rules please.

 

[walrus]

Hmm... Interesting trait. It seems like one of the two usual effects for the Hunter trait. Would that mean that I don't take a wolf with me when they eat me? Then how should I read the "by using your weapons training to take down threatening monsters". Because I read that as "shoots a wolf when being hunt-targeted". Or is it some action I need to PM the GM?

GM: Please more clarification on the rules please.

Apologies, indeed the *take down threatening monsters* is a 50% chance of taking a random attacking wolf with you

 

[Slinky]

Can marty99 or randakar enlighten me how not tieing Rysz with Calamity by voting Rysz, but instead voting Calamity makes me an associate of Calamity? I don't understand the logic applied.

 

[randakar]

Can marty99 or randakar enlighten me how not tieing Rysz with Calamity by voting Rysz, but instead voting Calamity makes me an associate of Calamity? I don't understand the logic applied.

It doesn't, exactly. It just doesn't clear you - at that stage Calamity had too many votes for your vote to matter much anymore.

I'm simply adding up two lists - 5 people who are unlikely umbrella members, 4 people who are unlikely government pack members. 3 of those people are on both lists. Adding them up gives me 6 people.

Two people are not on either list: Marty, and you. One of you may be a wolf. Marty has been claiming to be an UBCS mercenary basically since the game started and even asked to be scanned. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Which leaves you.


I may of course be wrong. If you have a better idea of who might be our baddies, feel free to argue for lynching them. Hell, I only took hdk off my suspect list on a provisionary basis - I can still be convinced to put him back on there.

 

[Slinky]

It doesn't, exactly. It just doesn't clear you - at that stage Calamity had too many votes for your vote to matter much anymore.

When I voted Calamity, he had only one more vote than Rysz. I don't think one vote counts as 'too many'.

Vote Rysz

 

[randakar]

When I voted Calamity, he had only one more vote than Rysz. I don't think one vote counts as 'too many'.

Vote Rysz

I was going to say that you're wrong but I looked back .. and you are right there. I was looking at snoopdogg's column (it stands out, being gray and all) which listed 2 votes against Calamity's 4 at that point, but Rysz's column has 3 at that stage.

So fine. Benefit of the doubt time. Drat.


Unvote slinky v2
Vote the_hdk


Back to the old faithful ;-)


Why are you voting Rysz though?
Mind elaborating?

edit: Actually -


Unvote the_hdk
Vote Klaas


Someone new, and his behavior earlier in the game is suspect. (See earlier post)

 

[Eternaly_Lost]

I was going to say that you're wrong but I looked back .. and you are right there. I was looking at snoopdogg's column (it stands out, being gray and all) which listed 2 votes against Calamity's 4 at that point, but Rysz's column has 3 at that stage.

So fine. Benefit of the doubt time. Drat.


Unvote slinky v2
Vote the_hdk


Back to the old faithful ;-)


Why are you voting Rysz though?
Mind elaborating?

edit: Actually -


Unvote the_hdk
Vote Klaas


Someone new, and his behavior earlier in the game is suspect. (See earlier post)

Do not edit votes remember? Make a new post.

 

[randakar]

Do not edit votes remember? Make a new post.

hmn, I try to limit the post spam by doing this sometimes, using a few simple rules.

1 - I never do this near the deadline.
2 - I only do it if my post is the last post in the thread
3 - I never change a pre existing vote, I just add vote / unvote lines to the end.

If the GM minds it I will stop, though.

edit: BTW, do you like what I did with the sheet?

 

[Slinky]

I was going to make a post about why I was voting Rysz, but after examining my reasons for voting him it's not much. Basically it comes down to: 'I think he is suspicious' which is not good enough at this point. Especially with Rysz claiming to be the hunter. It felt a bit a too convenient claim, but knowing Rysz I doubt he would make that claim. On the other hand he admitted he doesn't have much time and claiming to be the hunter is a cheap defence against lynching.

Since I am actually supposed to be studying, I am going to shamelessly follow randakar's analysis and

Unvote Rysz
Vote marty99

 

[walrus]

Votecount - 5 hours 5 minutes til deadline

Slinky v2.0 - marty99
Tornadoli - J. Passepartout
Klaas - randakar
marty99 - Slinky v2.0

Not Voted: the_hdk*, Tornadoli, Rysz*, Lord Strange**, Klaas**

@randakar - yeah, please don't edit votes in if you can avoid it, but I'm not going to punish you for it ​