It's more complicated in Meso because we aren't guaranteed an 1 hunt 1 lynch per day as with a Lite, and also because a hunt can get a wolf and so the steady -3 villagers per day is thrown out. Nonetheless using 12/4/1 Lite is the easiest way to demonstrate. Counting a seer as a villager for this purpose, after night 0 without a wolf lynching it proceeds:
Day 1 12-4
Day 2 10-4
Day 3 8-4
Day 4 6-4
Day 5 4-4
Because of the game's structure, killing one extra villager, IE a tie with two players, won't bring parity any closer: 5-4 isn't parity; 3-4 and 4-4 are functionally the same. Thus, it doesn't hurt to lynch 1 extra in a Lite.
On the fourth day parity beckons, so if the village lynches two players they double their chances of getting a wolf, precisely as you said, and if they bag just one then the game continues with 4-3 (one dead villager from lynch, one from hunt, one dead wolf from lynch). Thus a last day tie is a nothing ventured (parity will be no closer), everything gained, for the village: if they're wrong, they lose, but that's the same for with a single lynch. If they're right they continue for another day, and if they're right twice they've eliminated two wolves.
The reason to wait until the last day is first, more information, second, the closer we are to parity the more likely we are to bag a waffle on simple odds.
I will admit that with Meso's 2 hunts 1 lynch that can morph to 1 hunt 1 lynch we potentially can lynch more than 1 extra player without bringing parity closer, but we might find the opposite, that we have brought parity closer. Might as well wait until we're closer to parity for the information and playing the odds, as to engage in ties now.
