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Werewolf Lite CXCIII: The Mountain Village

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Ironhead 5 said:
who would have the guts to hunt jonti-h on the first night? The short list probably includes EUROO7, Rysz, White Daimon, Lemeard, AOK. 11, and me. Not a very short list, I concede, but if we put this in the context of EUROO7's claim from a previous thread that jonti-h, AOK 11, and I are rarely hunted early, I think we can narrow the list down. Let's remove AOK and I from the short list: because we were the other two listed in EUROO7's post, both of us are probable targets as well; but if either survives, the survivor immediately looks guilty. So neither of us would (?) exploit this (and besides, neither of us are particularly dangerous as wolves; AOK, as brilliant as he is as a villager, is an inept wolf; and I am scanned and outed early in every single game in which I am a baddie). I haven't been around lately, but as I recall there used to be a lot of RP back-and-forth among jonti-h, Lemeard, White Daimon, and Rysz; could jonti-h's death be a symbolic poke-in-the-eye from one of these? (my current vote says yes, but I am open to change). And finally, could EUROO7 be so brazen as to exploit his own observation and try to hunt those very people whom he said were nearly immune from early hunts? The answer to any question that begins with "could EUROO7 be so brazen..." is always an unequivocal and resounding yes.

In conclusion, I implore the village to use their little grey cells in choosing who to vote today. Let's not make today an unanalyzable throw-away day.
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You also have to consider that someone in this catagory of well-known active oldies might not want to hunt the others too earlier, because that way they stand out easier. If you are the only one standing then you stand out like Sarah Palin in the field of Republican 2012 contenders. On the other hand, we also have so many good analysers in this game that a good bunch are bound to be goodies. The baddies might be scared and pre-emptively kill those about to analyse them to death. I believe that to be more likely.

Speaking of RP-ing, I shall need to think up a charachter. Someone pretty so I can post pretty pictures, but which one? Truly a hard decision lies before me

Vote the_hdk

Anyone who uses a random voting system is someone who doesn't want to stand by their vote. Who wants to preemptively create a defense of "oh.... but that vote was random. I personally didn't think about it. You can't use it for analysing". That sounds wolfish.

EDIT: Totally forgot that I was supposed to defend myself in this post.:p I'm a horrific wolf, in fact I'm so bad that if I was ev0l you would want to keep me alive. My seer senses are completely fucked up and its pretty standard fare that I protect the seer from being hunted. Its actually gotten so bad, that some games back I decided not to say anything about who to hunt. That actually works pretty well, and anyone who has been in a Lite wolfpack with me lately, can confirm this. So you can't use hunt analysis as a mean of implicating me, because I'm simply not a decision maker regarding hunts in wolf packs.
 
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Anyone who uses a random voting system is someone who doesn't want to stand by their vote. Who wants to preemptively create a defense of "oh.... but that vote was random. I personally didn't think about it. You can't use it for analysing". That sounds wolfish.
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So you can't use hunt analysis as a mean of implicating me, because I'm simply not a decision maker regarding hunts in wolf packs.
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Oh the irony... :D
 
reis91 said:
Now, I praise you for analysis and all
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Such effusive praise! But please do not consider this analysis per se; rather I was justifying my vote, while exhorting the meek and cowardly among us to offer up a rational vote as well.
reis91 said:
Or not being around by the deadline, as I probably won't be...
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What a bullshit excuse. If you won't be around at deadline, then you cannot vote snipe or bandwagon; that does not give you reprieve from casting a meaningful vote before the deadline, while you still can get online. And how have you voted? You vote jacob-Lundgren because he survived the first night; ergo, he must be a wolf :rolleyes: It is a cowardly throwaway vote; but a couple days from now, you can use it to burnish your "goodie" credentials and protect yourself from scrutiny and analysis.
reis91 said:
This makes little sense.
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Yes, I see that it clearly made little sense to you. It was geared more toward the veterans, who are familiar with the game dynamic when stalwarts such as AOK and EUROO7 are in the mix.
reis91 said:
Poor metagaming, ultimately meaningless via concept of separate experiences having same chance for events, regardless of past outcomes.
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I don't know who taught you the word "metagaming" (angry glare at jonti-h's corpse) but the concept does not apply as I have used it. It is a word that used to have a pretty standard meaning, but it has become a bogeyman, a stalking horse to denounce any recurring behavior that the user dislikes. As originally used, metagamng meant behavior in a game that is influenced by previous games; most often in the context of (a) I will kill the victim because he killed me in a previous game; or (b) victim and I hate each other and always kill each other every game we play in together. But the first example of metagaming in this community camje from a game ~4 years ago or so, wherein two players had a secret agreement to always share information; one was a villager, the other was a wolf, so the wolf outed his entire pack to the villager, who swore not to reveal the information until endgame. It was stupid and nonsensical. That is metagaming; whereas what I referenced was the conditioning and behavior that develops over many games, to the point where the veterans all have certain expectations regarding the behavior of other players and variances on that behavior is used to analyse the player's affiliation; similar to the way that AOK keeps a profile on many of the veterans and can use that to analyze our behavior and track our affiliation.
reis91 said:
PS - You might say I'm still angry at being brutalized, but I hold no quarrel, I assure you.
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Nor I for you. As an aside, how long have you been playing WW with us? I was under the impression that you were pretty new after you imploded in the big game, but you addressed me with such confidence just now that it appears you may have some experience under your belt.
 
reis91 said:
Oh the irony... :D
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There is no irony in this. One is a preemptive voting analysis defense, which is always incriminating. The other is not me sending hunt orders to protect myself from hunting analysis, it is me not sending in orders to prevent me from protecting the seer from hunts. Hunting analysis can only be used to pinpoit the wolf "leader", or indicate that there is none. Which is why this type of analysis can only be used to pinpoit a rare amount of people. A group of people that does not include me.
 
In as sub!
 
Mr. G said:
In as sub!
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h00999.jpg


?
 
Ironhead 5 said:
Understood that today we have nothing else to go on; but I don't think we should resort to random.org to decide who to vote. This is someone's life we're talking about here; you would leave it to chance?

Why don't we use this today to go after annoying RPers? This seems like a much more effective use of your first day's vote. Furthermore, I contend that anyone who casts a vote on Day 1, and that person for whom they voted ends up with only that one vote at the end of the day, is at least as suspicious as those who voted for a villager on days when we have a close vote that ends with a wolf being lynched. It is blatantly trying to blend into the crowd and ought to be regarded as such.

I thought about the choice of the wolves first hunt last night, and I think that jonti-h's death is an indicator that at least one of the wolves can be profiled by this hunt choice -- ie, who would have the guts to hunt jonti-h on the first night? The short list probably includes EUROO7, Rysz, White Daimon, Lemeard, AOK. 11, and me. Not a very short list, I concede, but if we put this in the context of EUROO7's claim from a previous thread that jonti-h, AOK 11, and I are rarely hunted early, I think we can narrow the list down. Let's remove AOK and I from the short list: because we were the other two listed in EUROO7's post, both of us are probable targets as well; but if either survives, the survivor immediately looks guilty. So neither of us would (?) exploit this (and besides, neither of us are particularly dangerous as wolves; AOK, as brilliant as he is as a villager, is an inept wolf; and I am scanned and outed early in every single game in which I am a baddie). I haven't been around lately, but as I recall there used to be a lot of RP back-and-forth among jonti-h, Lemeard, White Daimon, and Rysz; could jonti-h's death be a symbolic poke-in-the-eye from one of these? (my current vote says yes, but I am open to change). And finally, could EUROO7 be so brazen as to exploit his own observation and try to hunt those very people whom he said were nearly immune from early hunts? The answer to any question that begins with "could EUROO7 be so brazen..." is always an unequivocal and resounding yes.

In conclusion, I implore the village to use their little grey cells in choosing who to vote today. Let's not make today an unanalyzable throw-away day.
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Jim, it's day one. there is nothing to go on. And I disagree with you there are more people who could hunt jonti. hell I can't think of a person who wouldn't want to hunt jonti....
 
reis91 said:
Unofficial votecount is unofficial
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Adamus was voting Walrus, not me.

AOK. 11 said:
Absolutely. I suck as a wolf. All the villages I have annihilated as a wolf were pure luck. Therefore, nobody should vote for me as I am no threat whatsoever.

And no, lets not take us off the list I5. I mean really, after all the fuss I made in the big game about people like Jonti and I being hunted I could certainly see myself doing that on purpose just so I can say "I WUD NVR DO THAT AS WULF U IDIOTS". You on the other hand will kill anyone at any time.

I will therefore shamelesssly bandwagon Trespoe for making the severe mistake of voting me. Remember, I am not a threat as a wolf. I5 has spoken the truth. I think.

VOTE TRESPOE


I AM HARMLESS. I SWEAR.
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gee, thanks. Who pooped in yer wheaties?

If you read my post I mentioned you for a BS reason, but was going to change anyway. Which I am.

Unvote AOK

Vote Lord Strange

first because he would be one to hunt jonti (I really don't think you would, and you must be leader in any pack) and two because he is second in votes and I want to save myself.
 
Official Vote Count

Lord Strange (3) - the_hdk, Rysz, trespoe
Trespoe (3) - Walrus, TheExecuter, AoK 11

the_hdk (2) - Lord Strange, White Daimon

White Daimon (1) - Ironhead5
Jacob-Lundgren (1) - Reis91
Reis91 (1) - Jacob-Lundgren
The Split (1) - Kaetje
TheExecuter(1) - Adamus

N.V: EUR007, Lemeard, The Split

 
Vote Mr. G

EDIT: ETA on deadline?
 
Oh for ***k's sake I'm dead already!
Sub, I want to meta vendetta!
 
Unvote Mr. G
Vote Rice
 
WTF is up with all the analysis on day 1? Day 1 is for mad vote-swings, 5-way ties and general foncusion!

Also, anyone who claims that people like jonti-h are not often hunted on night 1 is blind. Last few games I've whitnessed it was the good players being hunted early. The only people who wouldn't do it are the "kind" people. Like Randy. He's too nice for his own good.
 
Who are "the good people"?
 
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