Werewolf Lite CLXXXV: The muppets

[marty99]

Hello, everyone.

First, I apologize for not being around yesterday - I was busy yesterday and today until now. If you want evidence, see the FTG link in my Sig, in which thread I have not replied to for around 36 hours, despite the poster being very helpful.

It's all right, we all have times when we can't be as active as we want to be, and that thread, although not game-related, does back up your claim that you really didn't have a lot of time yesterday, as opposed to a matter of choice based on your role

As to the question of whether I am quieter as a wolf - yes, I am. It's a very annoying baddie tell that still persists, despite strenuous efforts to avoid it.

Now, I will confess that my vote of yesterday on Hax was not completely random. My reasoning is not that hard to guess, and no, it doesn't have to do with his claim of being a villager. It has more to do with his being around, if you get my drift.

I guessed that, and I completely understand your reasoning

Now, Marty is a great analyzer, and this statement, made nearly a day before deadline, simply does not fit him trying to ping the wolves. It is similar to the tell of avoiding TIEs, but regardless, it's not clear at all why Marty said something like this - for BS justifications, people hardly use justifications that could be misinterpreted as actually being true justifications. And plus, there's nothing wrong with retaliation.

You flatter me sir
Even if I was, it's kinda hard to ping the wolves halfway through the first day
My vote on jonti was really little more than a random vote I confess, but where possible I always try to put a bit of a case, as sometimes wolves use my reasoning as an excuse to bandwagon whoever I vote for, and I've caught a few that way. It was unlikely in a game of this size and with this quality of players that that would happen, but there was no harm in trying.

As to avoiding TIE's, usually I am one of the least concerned in breaking TIE's, I don't deliberately aim for them, and if I'm online at the deadline to break them I probably will, but otherwise I usually just let the voting flow.
However at this stage there was 4-5 people leading with just one vote each, and this is bad not only for a TIE but also because it makes it nearly impossible to analyze later. It's far better to have 2-3 candidates being run up, and my vote on jonti was intended to start that process, and in fairness it worked, after that there weren't any throwaway votes

Yes. A wolfpack from not even two days of posts. No credible analysis of accusations. In fact, no analysis whatsoever of accusations. And it seems like you just tried to pick these names randomly from a list. #2, #7, and #11 - very evenly spread out, which is what someone choosing randomly would fallaciously select.

Indeed, that was a pretty monstrous supposition on Slinky's part and I found it odd myself
I have seen wolves before name a so-called pack, and then deliberately leave them alive until later in the game to back up their claim and when it gets near parity lynch one of them

You have no evidence whatsoever, and might as well just be throwing names out to say something. Plus, if you thought us three were the wolves (and if you actually name a pack, you'd better have some amount of evidence), then you should vote me and not Trespoe, as I am more likely to be lynched. But this way, you're better able to switch to your primary opponent, in case you start accumulating votes. Plus, your vote switching yesterday, despite your protestations to the contrary, have done nothing useful, but rather sowed confusion into the village, as well as make it harder to read your own actions.

You make that sound wolfish, but IMHO this particular part of Slinky's behaviour could just be coincidence, while accusing Slinky for not voting you is very nobly un-biased on your part, I don't think it makes him a more likely wolf
A lot of your analysis seems to hinge on the assumption that wolves plan their votes and actions in general more than villagers, and while this is sometimes true, a lot of the time wolves don't think who they are voting for, as long as it's not an endangered packmate




But anyway, my vote on you served it's purpose, to get you to talk more.

I won't vote Lord_D, because he was run up yesterday also and this is his first Lite game back for God knows how long. I don't want to vote AVN or Trespoe because they are very useful analysers and have already shown they are active and putting reason into their votes. If I voted Slinky - who is already in the lead - it would be a bandwagon and also he just defended himself well.
EDIT: Slinky has two votes I thought he had three, but my second point stands.

That leaves only one person who has any votes on him.

Unvote Jamie550 Vote CCA
I don't find him inherently suspicious, but he hasn't done anything of note this game, and this is maybe the only way of getting information about him.

 

[marty99]

Cca [3] Avn [212] LordD [206], marty99 [221]
Sli [2] - Jamie [216] Tres [204]
Avn [2] - Cca [201] Kaet [187]
Jamie [1] - Jonti [208]
Tres [1] - Wal2 [190]
Lord_D [1] - Slinky [219]
None [1] - Hax

 

[Jamie550]

It seems like I struck a nerve.

I like some parts of your defence: like how you are accusing me of not voting you. I could easily solve that, but is that really what you want me to do? Saying that I have no basis for that post is seriously insulting me, however you made me laugh with that line about random numbers, so it's all good.

My accusation on trespoe and Lord_D was based on the voting material so far. I unvoted Lord_D and voted trespoe, then Lord_D votes someone else in the lead. He didn't do this when he was still part of the tie, but only after he was clear. Some strange behaviour there, but that could be explained by him not being online before. It's not rock hard evidence. Hence why I am posting "if I have to guess who the wolves are" Working from the assumption that Lord_D and trespoe are wolves, I thought you the most likely packmate. I wasn't convinced of you guys being wolves, but your reaction is changing that.

And you might think my vote switching was useless, but I am finding it quite useful.

Unvote trespoe
Vote Lord_D

The person who I initially thought to be the most likely wolf, but didn't vote because of having no votes yet. Still I am tempted to change to jamie550. I wasn't seriously attacking him with my post but he reacts like I have bitten him or something.

Well, now that you explain it, I see your rationale for LordD and Trespoe, but considering the fluidity of the voting, it's hardly anything. And in any case, was it so hard to explain that? In addition, your choices do correspond to psuedorandomness, which people for some reason take to mean that the choices should be spread out as much as possible.

And there's a large difference between guess and guess - the former makes a far stronger statement, despite the inherent uncertainty implied in the word. And you still have no link between me and them, and I doubt that they are both wolves.

And if you actually think I'm suspicious, then come and vote me. I'm not scared.

My vote on jonti was really little more than a random vote I confess, but where possible I always try to put a bit of a case, as sometimes wolves use my reasoning as an excuse to bandwagon whoever I vote for, and I've caught a few that way. It was unlikely in a game of this size and with this quality of players that that would happen, but there was no harm in trying.

Ah, to see if wolves fall for BS reasoning. Clever; I must remember that

You make that sound wolfish, but IMHO this particular part of Slinky's behaviour could just be coincidence, while accusing Slinky for not voting you is very nobly un-biased on your part, I don't think it makes him a more likely wolf
A lot of your analysis seems to hinge on the assumption that wolves plan their votes and actions in general more than villagers, and while this is sometimes true, a lot of the time wolves don't think who they are voting for, as long as it's not an endangered packmate

While I have no statistical evidence, it would seem that wolves are more likely to leave themselves an escape route, since the loss of a wolf is more damaging to the pack than the loss of an villager to the village. Plus, wolves are free to not consider the interests of the village, except insofar as it helps their cover.

Sli [2] - Jamie [216] Tres [204]
LordD [1] - Sli [219]
Jamie [1] - Jonti [208]
Cca [3] - Marty [221] Avn [212] LordD [206]
Tres [1] - Wal2 [190]
Avn [2] - Cca [201] Kaet [187]
None [1] - Hax

 

[trespoe]

I will try to be on later before voting ends, but cannot say for certain. It would be my lunchbreak at work.

My vote yesterday was on Walrus all day long, I never changed. If that makes me suspicious... then something is wrong with you. I did feel at the end that he was a villager but changing to someone else would be even more crazy,as it would open the possibility of a tie and especially if he DID turn out to be a wolf. Today I am voting Slinky, partly for retaliation reasons since he has voted me both days.

Lord D I do find suspicious, but he broke the five way tie against Walrus yesterday. Unless his pack was in grave danger, I think a wolf would really have liked getting rid of a bunch of people. Ties would be bad.

People making ties were jonti (just about every time) and Slinky (same thing).

I may change my vote later, but we will see. Of those in the running, I am not getting a strong feel for CCA (one way or another) nor AVN. Slinky, yes. So that is where my vote sits.

 

[Hax]

vote avn

 

[jonti-h]

vote avn

Why are you voting AVN?

Unvote Jamie550 Vote Hax until he provides a reason for his vote.

 

[walrus]

Unvote Trespoe
Vote Slinky

because TIE!

 

[Hax]

until he provides a reason for his vote.

Reason: Random, you want more Mr. Curious ? o

 

[marty99]

Slinky [3] - Jamie [216] Tres [204], Walrus [227]
Cca [3] - Marty [221] Avn [212] LordD [206]
Avn [3] - Cca [201] Kaet [187], Hax [225]
Hax [1] - jonti-h [226]
LordD [1] - Slinky [219]


Just wanted to say I may not be online at the deadline.

 

[jonti-h]

Reason: Random, you want more Mr. Curious ? o

Yes I do. Posting 2 word vote posts is epic fail.

 

[Slinky]

Unvote Lord_D
Vote CCA

I don't think I need to explain this vote

 

[randakar]

The line is dead

Day 2


After the walrus debacle there is a fierce debate amongst the muppets. The animals have stricken again!
But the show must go on. It is time for OsCCAr to perform. He sings a trashy song, as he is wont to do. Boy, does that man like trash!

Perhaps, his liking of trash is a clever disguise? What is he hiding in that can anyway?
So, after some to and fro, the muppets decide to toss his trashcan out the door, and put it with the other trash. Where it undoubtedly belongs, were it not for the fact that alas, CCA was in reality a real muppet!

CCA the muppet is dead from lynching.

Night 2

When it is time for the next act there is a sudden panic. Something kinky! was planned for this. A song about the sounds your body makes. However, the chief performer is nowhere to be found. After a frantic search finally jonti-h turns up - fast asleep on the stage, but nobody can wake him up!

As it turns out, that's because he's quite dead.
jonti-h the muppet is dead from hunting.

 

[EUROO7]

The line is dead

That is my line...

...and you have killed it!

 

[randakar]

That is my line...

...and you have killed it!

Plagiarism is the most sincere form of flattery, isn't it?

 

[jonti-h]

Wolves:

Sub please

 

[AVN]

@randakar

I believe you wanted some comments on your updates.

I like them

 

[randakar]

@randakar

I believe you wanted some comments on your updates.

I like them

Thank you

Sub please

Seeing how everyone actually voted this time around I put you on spot #2, after humancalculator. (Haven't seen him around lately but the issue probably is moot right now ..)

 

[jonti-h]

@randakar

I believe you wanted some comments on your updates.

I like them

I don't like the last one.

Seeing how everyone actually voted this time around I put you on spot #2, after humancalculator. (Haven't seen him around lately but the issue probably is moot right now ..)

We need some people to not vote then

 

[AVN]

For the moment I'll Vote Hax

Because he doesn't give any explanation for his votes.

But I'll do some analysis tomorrow and it's possible I'll change my vote then.

 

[Kaetje]

Despite what my voting says I was convinced yesterday that Jonti-h was a werewolf. I didn't vote him though, to gain more evidence before I'd out my suspicions. Seems I was wrong anyway :-(

I need to find my 6th sense for this game, since it's failing me.

For now: Vote Slinky.

Also, I have guests in the house this weekend. I won't be very active but I'll try to ask Randakar to poke me before the deadline this time.