So will any of the wolves step forward and tell me why they tried to hunt me last night?
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No, that was Snoop I think
Unvote OrangeYoshi Vote Qorten, I can't let the campaign finish after a day, can I?
@Lemeard: First The Arch Mede said he was hunted last night, which he then refuted when pressure was put on him, how do we know you're telling the truth?
Saying as the traitsters don't trust each other to tell the truth about the scans, I think we should elect a middle-man who they will send all their scans to, so then it will be harder to infiltrate if one of them is a wolf, as they'll only know what they scanned, and nobody elses, this way, we'll still get all the scan results by the middle-man announcing it, but it'll make it harder for the wolves to ping the seer with it, as they won't see the other scans
Or we could get someone the seer has scanned to step forward and advocate himself, but then a wolf could just pose as a scanned villager, but would they have the balls?
Just food for thoght, for you to ponder on while I go to school (btw I don't want to be it myself)
Or we could get someone the seer has scanned to step forward and advocate himself, but then a wolf could just pose as a scanned villager, but would they have the balls?
Just food for thoght, for you to ponder on while I go to school (btw I don't want to be it myself)
not a bad idea, there. I will probably be asleep when the round ends unless I remember to set my alarm clock.
I wouldn't trust Alchie farther than you can throw him. I can only speak for myself, and never refuted anything.
Oh, and to answer your question: You can't, this is werewolf.
Well, I don't really know what to think of this "we're blessed spies" business, simply because that rapes balance.
So somebody somewhere has to be lying through their teeth.
But for now I guess it would be best to give our "traitsters" a chance, and let them coordinate whatever BS they plan on coordinating and see what their conclusion is.
So until we get some kind of answer from the "traitsters" I'm going to be sitting on the sideline, somewhat confused, probably drunk, and completely tired.
So somebody somewhere has to be lying through their teeth.
But for now I guess it would be best to give our "traitsters" a chance, and let them coordinate whatever BS they plan on coordinating and see what their conclusion is.
So until we get some kind of answer from the "traitsters" I'm going to be sitting on the sideline, somewhat confused, probably drunk, and completely tired.
I think we already have agreed to give our results to snoop. I regard the others as suspect due to their response to my wolf trap, but snoop passed that test and I regard him as very probably clean. I am committed to give snoop my result and if they don't, it will be yet another strand in the noose.
I might as well give that strand a chance to appear, because I have changed my mind about marty's attack on Yoshi. Last night it smelt nasty to me, but now it smells fishy. I think it could be a set up with a couple of wolves looking to give one another an alibi. It would be nice to TIE them if that were the case, but its too late to do anything but move OY out into the lead as far as possible.
Unvote jonti-h
vote OrangeYoshi
I also think ciryandor is a likely wolf. This would be another way to balance handing out lots of blessings.
IIRC this may be wrong
Oy [3] - Arch [208] Jonti [159] Qor [157]
Jest [1] - Tres [130]
For [2] - Sd [167] Oy [164]
Jonti [1] - Yak [125]
Jamie [1] - Wal [127]
Qor [2] - Marty [202] Jest [182]
Hdk [2] - Lem [199] Jamie [113]
Arch [1] - Hdk [135]
Wal [1] - Joeb [117]
None [3] - For Split Sli
Oy [3] - Arch [208] Jonti [159] Qor [157]
Jest [1] - Tres [130]
For [2] - Sd [167] Oy [164]
Jonti [1] - Yak [125]
Jamie [1] - Wal [127]
Qor [2] - Marty [202] Jest [182]
Hdk [2] - Lem [199] Jamie [113]
Arch [1] - Hdk [135]
Wal [1] - Joeb [117]
None [3] - For Split Sli
I'll admit I have absolutely nothing on OY (him pointing out my "Crovax" doesn't count) that makes me think him a likely wolf..
But I absolutely don't like that vote distribution, if it is correct. Far too many chances for the wolves to get a tie going.
Vote OrangeYoshi
Just before I wanted to vote, ForzaA shows up.
It doesn't change my vote though.
Vote Qorten
It doesn't change my vote though.
Vote Qorten
Vote OY
Sorry guys was very inactive the last few days but will do better from now (RL stuff) Voting OY to prevent a possible tie so close to the deadline
Sorry guys was very inactive the last few days but will do better from now (RL stuff) Voting OY to prevent a possible tie so close to the deadline
Again, I have reason to believe that this count may be wrong (A past version disagreed with someone else's past version)
Oy [5] - Split [212] For [210] Arch [208] Jonti [159] Qor [157]
Jest [1] - Tres [130]
For [2] - Sd [167] Oy [164]
Jonti [1] - Yak [125]
Jamie [1] - Wal [127]
Qor [3] - Sli [211] Marty [202] Jest [182]
Hdk [2] - Lem [199] Jamie [113]
Arch [1] - Hdk [135]
Wal [1] - Joeb [117]
Oy [5] - Split [212] For [210] Arch [208] Jonti [159] Qor [157]
Jest [1] - Tres [130]
For [2] - Sd [167] Oy [164]
Jonti [1] - Yak [125]
Jamie [1] - Wal [127]
Qor [3] - Sli [211] Marty [202] Jest [182]
Hdk [2] - Lem [199] Jamie [113]
Arch [1] - Hdk [135]
Wal [1] - Joeb [117]
On the statistics of scans;
I'll assume the reported 60% scan result (and assuming that the 40% gives a reversed result)
Optimal case, we can trust the spies to represent their scan results correctly (more on that later)
if one scan on one person, purely statistically (assuming 4 wolves out of 17 players) For simplicity, I'm calling the seer a villager (since I have no idea how a false report on a seer would look, or if a false negative on a wolf might return "seer")
4/17*0.6 = 14% chance of chosing a wolf and getting an accurate result
13/17*0.4= 30% chance of chosing a villager and getting an INaccurate result.
4/17*.4 = 9% of chosing a wolf and getting an INaccurate result (a false clearing)
13/17*.6= 45% chance of chosing a villager and getting an accurate result.
yes yes, I know the %ages don't add up to 100%, I'm too lazy to do proper rounding.
In other words; If you get a "wolf" result, there's a 2/3 chance that it is actually a villager (from a statistics point of view anyway)
If you get a "villager" result, there's still a 1/6 chance that it's a wolf (again, purely statistical)
Now, if we take two scans on each person..
.4*.4=.16 inversion
.6*.6=.36 correct
remainder (48%) gives conflicting scan results.
4/17*.16= ca. 4% of picking a wolf and wrongly clearing
4/17*.36= ca. 8% of picking a wolf and correctly identifying
4/17*.48= ca. 11% of picking a wolf and ambiguous
13/17*.48= ca. 37% of picking a villager and ambiguous
13/17*.36= ca. 27% of accurately clearing a villager
13/17*.16= ca. 12% of falsely accusing a villager of being a wolf
In other words: ambiguous (as it should be) doesn't improve upon purely statistical 4/17 are wolves.
"double wolf" has a 3/5* chance of falsely accusing a villager
"double villager" has a (roughly) 1/8** chance of falsely clearing a wolf
It gets even worse if there's a wolf amongst the scanners, obviously, since he'll likely just report a "clear" for a wolf and a "wolf" for a villager. I could do the statistics, but I think you get the point.
* 13/17*.16/(13/17*.16+4/17*.36) = 59.09%
** 4/17*.16/(4/17*.16+13/17*.36) = 12.03%
tl;dr version PLEASE report the exact scan result rather than your conclusion - since all it really does is give an indication, and a lot of chance for drama.
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Looks okay except for Snoopdoggs vote. He didn't unvote when he changed his vote.
Ah, got it, thanks
Oy [5] - Split [212] For [210] Arch [208] Jonti [159] Qor [157]
Jest [1] - Tres [130]
For [1] - Oy [164]
Jonti [1] - Yak [125]
Jamie [1] - Wal [127]
Qor [3] - Sli [211] Marty [202] Jest [182]
Hdk [2] - Lem [199] Jamie [113]
Arch [1] - Hdk [135]
Wal [1] - Joeb [117]
Sli [1] - Sd [131]
should be right now
GM Update will be late by 1-2 hours because of connection issues.
DEADLINE HAS NOT BEEN MOVED.
DEADLINE HAS NOT BEEN MOVED.
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Oh yes, I keep forgetting about these deadlines being at 9 PM 
EDIT: The deadline was 1 hr, 40 minutes ago, right?
EDIT: The deadline was 1 hr, 40 minutes ago, right?
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Official GM Votecount:
5 Votes:
OrangeYoshi - ForzaA, jonti-h, Qorten, The Arch Mede, THE_SPLIT
3 Votes:
Qorten - Jester180, Marty99, slinky
2 Votes:
the_hdk - Lemeard, Jamie550
1 Vote:
Walrus - joebthegreat
ForzaA - OrangeYoshi
jonti - Yakman
Jester180 - trespoe
Lemeard - walrus
The Arch Mede - snoopdogg
slinky - the_hdk
As the race heats up, players start jostling for track position so they can gain momentum and start overtaking the other players. A hapless Mario Kart player trying the game for the first time gets bounced around by the more regular players, slips on a banana peel, and hit by a couple of rockets, before quitting in frustration. I guess dinosaurs get dizzy when not playing on the Wii.
At the same time, our good friend from earlier now gets a free replacement copy of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 from Steam download. Surprised at this unexpected bonanza, he tries to open it as he continues racing with his dual-monitor rig, but finds out its DRM protection won't let him play for a couple of days. In frustration, he shuts down his computer rig and mutters: "At least I race for a living."
OrangeYoshi the Casual Player has been lynched by the racers
Lemeard the formerly blessed Casual Player with seerish powers was hunted by the CRAZY KARTS
16 Players are now left in the game
5 Votes:
OrangeYoshi - ForzaA, jonti-h, Qorten, The Arch Mede, THE_SPLIT
3 Votes:
Qorten - Jester180, Marty99, slinky
2 Votes:
the_hdk - Lemeard, Jamie550
1 Vote:
Walrus - joebthegreat
ForzaA - OrangeYoshi
jonti - Yakman
Jester180 - trespoe
Lemeard - walrus
The Arch Mede - snoopdogg
slinky - the_hdk
As the race heats up, players start jostling for track position so they can gain momentum and start overtaking the other players. A hapless Mario Kart player trying the game for the first time gets bounced around by the more regular players, slips on a banana peel, and hit by a couple of rockets, before quitting in frustration. I guess dinosaurs get dizzy when not playing on the Wii.
At the same time, our good friend from earlier now gets a free replacement copy of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 from Steam download. Surprised at this unexpected bonanza, he tries to open it as he continues racing with his dual-monitor rig, but finds out its DRM protection won't let him play for a couple of days. In frustration, he shuts down his computer rig and mutters: "At least I race for a living."
OrangeYoshi the Casual Player has been lynched by the racers
Lemeard the formerly blessed Casual Player with seerish powers was hunted by the CRAZY KARTS
16 Players are now left in the game
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