alynkio's back, nice
Out of Audren's 14 posts in this thread, 6 are useful - 2 come from signing up/messing around before the game started, and his last 6 posts go from his fake PMs with aedan to his last post in the thread - not much to learn from them since he's either trying to defend himself from an outing or dead at this stage (one could try to interpret something out of his fake PMs.... Not inclined to do so however)
So we have 6 meaningful posts
The first one is the arky vote day 1. Consolidating the vote on two candidates (unknown LK and villager arky) and relegating various candidates further behind to one vote each. It was early in the day so it's not a clear cut attempt to save anybody, but he did consolidate on a villager, so as
@alynkio said it's highly possible there were a waffle or two in the candidates with audran trying to steer the lynch away from them.
Of the people who had one vote at this point, there was Audren himself, and also the villagers sleepyhead and dbw. That leaves Spockyt, De chat, alynkio, witch agatha and claude as potential waffles benefiting from this vote
The second post day 2 comes with a bit of analysis that is certainly interesting. The post ends with an easy vote on villager dbw, unsurprisingly, but what is said prior to the vote is what's of interest. He first argues that the most important things to happen happened near deadline - a clue indicating that the waffles voted early ? Not convincing since Audren's vote warranted suspicion (and it did attract attention), so it was in Audren's self interests to attract the attention to what happened at deadline
And the most interesting things to happen at deadline were villager alxeu pushing unknown de chat into the lead, only for unknown LK to tie de chat with villager arky, thereby prompting alxeu to switch to de chat to prevent a tie (claude piling on late to ensure the absence of tie). But audren quickly dismisses it on the ground of an earlier LK post looking villager-y..... weak. So he's saying the most interesting things happened at deadline (for self interests because digging what happened before the deadline doesn't look good for him).... but he then doesn't expand on it ? Surprising
He then note De chat's senseless Day 2 vote on villager alxeu, and a just as senseless pushback, then adds in a post that spockyt's answer to accusation seems villager-y. Hm. Not sure what to make of that.
Third post attacks villager dbw even more, and answers a suggestion for a voteswitch to wagon positively while saying he prefers dbw. Well, as a waffle he wouldn't care much either way
4th post calls on Euro and LK to explain their Day 3 shenanigans..... Let's note that he doesn't call out claude who was also involved.
5th post sees him defend himself against wagon's accusations (which were kinda weak but we know now motivated by a scan result). He then exonerates LK of wrongdoing and votes euro (who answered accusations in an euroish way, ofc)
The two most suspicious people to emerge out of these posts are claude and LK..... But as alynkio pointed out, it's a lot of interactions between the two, so this would make them unlikely packmates because of the obvious connection, right ? Especially since LK did vote audren day 2 putting him on the spotlights - although he backed off from this vote pretty easily when deadline drew nearer.... Claude's omission meanwhile feel kinda obvious. Would be nice to have access to audren's thoughts as he was typing these posts eh ? did the wolves go for a "hiding in plain sight" strategy ?
who else do we have ?
hdk hasn't done much really, hard to get a grasp on what he's thinking. a day 1 consolidation 1 on arky - would it work again ? That would be VERY risky from the wolves though, they'd do that only if another waffle was high in the running. some pressure on claude day 2. doesn't sound villager-y but hasn't done enough to really feel waffle-y. One of those people you lynch because of the lack of information make them a 50-50 chance of being a wolf, but we have better cases right now
euro... is euro, really. Besides messing around (his vote for today is currently a non explained vote on alynkio) the biggest problem is how he unnecessarily tied two villagers day 2..... It's euro so he could be a waffle counting on his maverick style of play and reputation to get away with it, or a villager genuinely messing around. Audren went after him for that but he could've been selling a packmate thinking there was no way euro would escape this lynch (haven't played enough with audren to know that although alynkio doesn't seem to be sold on this idea) - or audren could've been after an easy villager lynch. I'll tell you honestly, I have no idea about him. If you think we should lynch him then I'll follow, but I'll be going after someone about whom I have more certainties
agatha has been worse than hdk so far, doing the bare minimum of one vote per day.... the only post giving us some hindsight about her (according to alynkio's post, sorry if I'm mistaken
@Witch Agatha ) thinking is her day 2 vote. Where she was both suspicious of LK and followed him on his reasoning - although she didn't follow his vote, since she went after spockyt rather than audren. It's really not much though. If we have to lynch someone for inactivity, I'd rather vote her than hdk tbh, but again I'd rather vote someone else. We can always vote the more inactive ones later, they'll have to vote and that will give us more information about them
then we have alynkio. Day 1 he made a vote similar to audren's - a second vote on a candidate consolidating the lynch around three mains candidates. Among the possible beneficiaries were audren.... hm. later on he tried to expand the lynch candidates instead of putting in a tie-breaking vote. Interesting, since among the tied ones was arky. And LK, which might be significant if you consider LK as unlikely waffle because of his interactions with audren. Same as dbw afraid to attract attention ? But then we know how it turned out in dbw's case. day 2 was witch hunting day because of a throwaway.... Uh. Not impressive but the reasoning somewhat holds I guess ? Note that audren had picked up some 2 votes at this point, being in the lead with dbw. Instead of expanding the number of candidates with 2 votes (alxeu, LK and claude had one vote) he decided to present a new candidate. alxeu's case was really flimsy so it's perhaps not surprising a wolf alynkio wouldn't take the risk to up him in the votes, but you'd expect a wolf alynkio to go after LK or claude if he wanted to get the lynch away from audren. Unless he couldn't ? I don't really think alynkio and LK would fit the same pack, so you'd perhaps expect a wolf alynkio to push LK to 2 votes here.
But I find myself mostly in agreement with his latest post, which I guess makes him feel relatively villagery to me. Or makes a fool out of me, I don't know
de chat has been more active than hdk or agatha.... but most of his posts were him screwing around, so that doesn't translate to information. Still, I don't really have real baddie vibes from him, and I don't disagree with his list of suspects. How could I agree with his list of suspects while also agreeing with alynkio, you might say ? Well, my ability to twist my reasoning beyond rationality is something that surprises even myself
Spocky is yet again someone lying low.... Pushed claude day 1, which... eh... it's easy to do but we don't have a lot of information on the contenders at this stage, so hard to gauge if this vote benefited anyone. It did put all the candidates on 1 vote (spockyt, de chat, dbw, sleepy, alynkio, agatha and yours truly) out of danger though
He then went after wagon, which was mostly a throwaway. When audren was among the tied candidates at the top. perhaps as a waffles he mostly doesn't want to attract attention, so that's why he'd throwaway instead of helping a packmate ? Or perhaps he was trying to instigate a voteswitch ?....
then there's LK and claude.
LK has a bad day 1 vote (tying a villager with the unknown). to the benefit of de chat (and maybe claude), and interactions between them don't rule out de chat being a packmate of LK. went after audren day 2 but backed off pretty easily as I said. He went after alynkio pretty hard before trying to save his skin
claude tried to save himself day 1 so not much to read here, it was his best move (aside from trying a voteswitch). lots of posts which makes it sound like he's probing the waters (LK also does this imho). to me that sounds somewhat wolfy, not trying to commit too much in the fear of putting in a vote that would look suspicious ?
Hmmm. As you can see I'm at a bit of a loss, especially since the persons I find most suspicious (LK and claude) don't really work well together with audren as a pack. To make things worse, despite agreeing with his latest post, I don't really find myself trusting alynkio that much, but adding him to this already unlikely pack only makes it more unlikely imho.
But then of course some of the quieter people could easily fit in the pack too - as you can see I'm pretty bad at drawing connections between people. So let's just vote the person I find most suspicious and see where this leads us.... That would be claude, I guess. alynkio-claude race anyone ?
Vote claude
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