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Welcome back marty.
Let's see, I am not so quick to strike King off my list, but I do agree that there are better lynches. But first, for my own defense, I voted Esemesas decisively, getting him to be one of the runners. I voted Rendap because he was defending zombie-type of play (hence the CAWZ), intended to change that vote later, if needed (and it was, because Suirantes tied Rendap) but got here late, 5 mins after deadline. And, of course, I'm not a wolf, according to Kiwi, who is the ultimate authority on figuring out reis...
... anyway, Yakman, despite being a good target, never got enough traction. Falc voted Yakman twice... placeholder vote on packmate? He did vote Suirantes admitedly, but a sellout can't be excluded, when Suirantes was that compromised. Vainglory drew more attention, but got the last vote on Suirantes. He did a somewhat early vote on day 1, before both runners were chosen. Kiwi is someone I would have expected to have died a long time ago. I am getting mixed impressions about him... he voted ese early, and did a solid third vote on Suirantes, but it is odd he wasn't targeted for a hunt, when other analysers were. Yes, random hunts would explain that (and again last night's hunt was a quite poor choice of target for the wolves), but I can't rule him out completely. Last on your list, Enkhuush... well, he's hardly a wolf because he's not playing.
As far as my memory goes, I've only sent a hunt order on randy once some games ago.
Actually, I very rarely send orders as I don't have the intuition/luck some players have when it comes to hunting important goodies.
Skill, in the case of some of us, who dismiss random.org as suboptimal play...
Right.
Having won the Big game, I can now finally focus a bit on this game
.. tomorrow, though.
Having won the Big game, I can now finally focus a bit on this game
.. tomorrow, though.
Miotas? Why Miotas?
I've been thinking along much the same lines.
And I have this to say to the GM: Whatever you do about Falc and the_hdk, we need a full day after you resolve it. Marty is cleared, so ot's not just unknown role me who would support auto lynching. But as I said, do something and then give us a day to respond. Many of the Europe players will be heading to bed soon, and we need their input. Especially cleared ones like Seen, marty and randakar.
Reasons on day 1 are always guesses, you got lucky. I put my vote on you in my typical fashion. Odd that you ignore that, while relying on meta so much.
Splitting votes? Nonsense help? How is help nonsense? I'm analysing the situation and creating discussion. As far as I know, what you're doing now is the same thing. And accusing me of selling out a packmate is blatantly begging the question. You first believe I'm a wolf, in order to accuse me of being a wolf. You can make the same argument for anyone who voted a wolf.
No, I'll always mind dying in a tie. No matter what the other side is. I will not switch to help create a tie, or preserve a tie further than lynching my own target. I am one of the people against ties killing both players, and I shall always play that way. I will not actively break ties (unless I am a target) but I won't help create them, either.
The wolves hunting a mostly-cleared person is not the same as hunting you on day 1 like I did last time. And if you get stuck enough on that, every time you accuse me the wolves will hunt you just to try to blame me. It's not a good idea.
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Regarding Enk subbing in for baggy - it would make more sense to strike baggy with lightning and have enk sub in for one of the other two.
We've already went 2 days without baggy voting, and we only have day 1 info on him. While the other 2 have only missed 1 day each.
We've already went 2 days without baggy voting, and we only have day 1 info on him. While the other 2 have only missed 1 day each.
Very true. The last Lite I was in had me pulling my hair out at the lack of votes clouding analysis. Better to remove the worst offender.
So my top choices for lynch today are:
the_HDK
Falc
Yakman
Baggy
the_HDK is obvious. He made two throw away votes and relied on this to vote day 2:
We had a lot of information from catching a wolf. This is a poor excuse. Why did he do it? Maybe he didn't want to get involved with the lynching of a packmate? Or incriminate himself by picking the wrong person. All in all, we have a few days to play with and having people around that we cannot analyse will cause us trouble the last day.
Falc - voted Yakman twice. Seems to have a reason, but it could just be because he's being complacent. If he voted Yakman again yesterday I'd be more willing to vote Yakman, thinking Falc was the seer, but he missed yesterday's vote, which puts a little more suspicion on him.
Yakman - Partially because of Falc. If falc is the seer and scanned yakman, it wouldn't be odd to put a vote on him a few days in a row to attract attention. He did vote suirantes day 2 which is why I'm more hesitant to vote him today.
Baggy - Mostly the same reason as HDK. We know he was first to vote esemesas, but first vote on a wolf day 1 is usually pretty meaningless. Some wolves like to vote other wolves day 1, and it can quickly spiral out of hand. I've seen it happen in a few lites, so I'm not going to semi clear Baggy yet.
Most of these are just "cut the deadweight" reasons, but we have, what, 3 days until parity? 2 if some of them get struck by lightning, so we're ahead of the game by quite a bit. It'll help us in the future to get rid of some of them now, in order to properly catch wolves - which may be hard if none of them are wolves and we have to start looking into alibi votes.
the_HDK
Falc
Yakman
Baggy
the_HDK is obvious. He made two throw away votes and relied on this to vote day 2:
We had a lot of information from catching a wolf. This is a poor excuse. Why did he do it? Maybe he didn't want to get involved with the lynching of a packmate? Or incriminate himself by picking the wrong person. All in all, we have a few days to play with and having people around that we cannot analyse will cause us trouble the last day.
Falc - voted Yakman twice. Seems to have a reason, but it could just be because he's being complacent. If he voted Yakman again yesterday I'd be more willing to vote Yakman, thinking Falc was the seer, but he missed yesterday's vote, which puts a little more suspicion on him.
Yakman - Partially because of Falc. If falc is the seer and scanned yakman, it wouldn't be odd to put a vote on him a few days in a row to attract attention. He did vote suirantes day 2 which is why I'm more hesitant to vote him today.
Baggy - Mostly the same reason as HDK. We know he was first to vote esemesas, but first vote on a wolf day 1 is usually pretty meaningless. Some wolves like to vote other wolves day 1, and it can quickly spiral out of hand. I've seen it happen in a few lites, so I'm not going to semi clear Baggy yet.
Most of these are just "cut the deadweight" reasons, but we have, what, 3 days until parity? 2 if some of them get struck by lightning, so we're ahead of the game by quite a bit. It'll help us in the future to get rid of some of them now, in order to properly catch wolves - which may be hard if none of them are wolves and we have to start looking into alibi votes.
@ Marty
Kingepyon's among the most dangerous wolves. He was awful at first IIRC, but I've been his pack mate, or otherwise associated, a few times, and he's deadly as a ninja. Usually I'd have the measure of a player from being their packmate, and have a feel for whether they're being honest. I had King's number in Gondolin (he seemed innocent to me, and was), but here I'm unsure. He's easily sharp enough to hurl Suirantes under a bus to save the rest of the pack, particularly by being the first guy to go after Suirantes he'd see that as more valuable than being a later mover. Then again, it would be a strange day when Kingepyon got caught out on Day 1 as a wolf like that - as a villager it's entirely plausible he was just moving up frontrunners.
Find it annoying that I'm on suspects lists at this point. The remaining living players are:
Falc as Petyr Tyraan, alien-possessed and insane Psyker Navigator of the Stella Maris
the_hdk as Hector Dan-Kliff, Navigator of the Resolution
reis91 as Leon Reis, Navigator of the Pegasus
Bagricula subbed by enkhuush as Atreus, Psyker Navigator of the Myces
Yakmanas Yriz Maud, Navigator of the Eternal Dilligence
Capt. Kiwi as Jerrold Levert, Navigator of the Auckland
Kingepyon as Russel Mathis, Navigator of the Sentry
Miotas as Lokir Sigrin, Navigator of the Valhalla
Vainglory as Fizzgig Korelov, Navigator of the Magicienne
It's 2/7. Let's chuck some people off the list: Kiwi killed Esemesas, which in turn blew up Suirantes. That's just plain stupid for a wolf to do: it's 3 days to parity without a normal seer if Kiwi just votes for Seen. Killing Esemesas makes it 5 days to parity and exposes Suirantes, and if Suirantes dies (as he did) it goes to 6 days (however due to Rendap's death it actually didn't change). So Kiwi would have to be a gigantic moron, since even if this game him the perfect alibi and the seer never did anything, it still requires nobody finding an excuse to lynch him for the next five days. So let's move him off the list entirely. That leaves:
Falc as Petyr Tyraan, alien-possessed and insane Psyker Navigator of the Stella Maris
the_hdk as Hector Dan-Kliff, Navigator of the Resolution
reis91 as Leon Reis, Navigator of the Pegasus
Bagricula subbed by enkhuush as Atreus, Psyker Navigator of the Myces
Yakmanas Yriz Maud, Navigator of the Eternal Dilligence
Kingepyon as Russel Mathis, Navigator of the Sentry
Miotas as Lokir Sigrin, Navigator of the Valhalla
Vainglory as Fizzgig Korelov, Navigator of the Magicienne
Can't we take me off the list? I mean I killed Suirantes. I could have killed Rendap instead, which would have given Sui a respite and undermined confidence in the idea that Seen voters are wolves. Off the remaining eight people up there I really can't see how I'm a valid target for today. You could say I was trying to alibi and that Sui was dead anyway since the village would have returned to him (WereYak V shows that's untrue though; Bagricula the chew toy survived to be eaten in the end), so I was just maximizing my value. Okay, let's take that as a valid argument... it's still less likely than that I'm not a wolf. So for today there are better candidates.
Falc as Petyr Tyraan, alien-possessed and insane Psyker Navigator of the Stella Maris
the_hdk as Hector Dan-Kliff, Navigator of the Resolution
reis91 as Leon Reis, Navigator of the Pegasus
Bagricula subbed by enkhuush as Atreus, Psyker Navigator of the Myces
Yakmanas Yriz Maud, Navigator of the Eternal Dilligence
Kingepyon as Russel Mathis, Navigator of the Sentry
Miotas as Lokir Sigrin, Navigator of the Valhalla
Let's take Kingepyon off the list too. He did start the move on Suirantes, and Suirantes voted against him, and when Suirantes was tied up Kingepyon could have justified breaking the tie in Suirantes favor. It would have been reasonable for a villager to break that tie and save Sui to avoid a tie, because the tie brought parity closer. I don't consider Kingepyon totally cleared but for today he's a low-odds play.
Falc as Petyr Tyraan, alien-possessed and insane Psyker Navigator of the Stella Maris
the_hdk as Hector Dan-Kliff, Navigator of the Resolution
reis91 as Leon Reis, Navigator of the Pegasus
Bagricula subbed by enkhuush as Atreus, Psyker Navigator of the Myces
Yakmanas Yriz Maud, Navigator of the Eternal Dilligence
Miotas as Lokir Sigrin, Navigator of the Valhalla
I don't think we can remove anyone else from the list entirely but for the rest we should consider that Reis, Yak, Miotas, and Bag all voted to lynch a wolf once. Falc and the_hdk did not do so, and they ended Day 1 and 2 with their votes the only votes on people whose identities are unknown. Plus now we lack vote data for Day 3 on both of them.
I think we need the situation with Falc, the_hdk, and Bagricula to be resolved before we select targets.
Kingepyon's among the most dangerous wolves. He was awful at first IIRC, but I've been his pack mate, or otherwise associated, a few times, and he's deadly as a ninja. Usually I'd have the measure of a player from being their packmate, and have a feel for whether they're being honest. I had King's number in Gondolin (he seemed innocent to me, and was), but here I'm unsure. He's easily sharp enough to hurl Suirantes under a bus to save the rest of the pack, particularly by being the first guy to go after Suirantes he'd see that as more valuable than being a later mover. Then again, it would be a strange day when Kingepyon got caught out on Day 1 as a wolf like that - as a villager it's entirely plausible he was just moving up frontrunners.
Find it annoying that I'm on suspects lists at this point. The remaining living players are:
Falc as Petyr Tyraan, alien-possessed and insane Psyker Navigator of the Stella Maris
the_hdk as Hector Dan-Kliff, Navigator of the Resolution
reis91 as Leon Reis, Navigator of the Pegasus
Bagricula subbed by enkhuush as Atreus, Psyker Navigator of the Myces
Yakmanas Yriz Maud, Navigator of the Eternal Dilligence
Capt. Kiwi as Jerrold Levert, Navigator of the Auckland
Kingepyon as Russel Mathis, Navigator of the Sentry
Miotas as Lokir Sigrin, Navigator of the Valhalla
Vainglory as Fizzgig Korelov, Navigator of the Magicienne
It's 2/7. Let's chuck some people off the list: Kiwi killed Esemesas, which in turn blew up Suirantes. That's just plain stupid for a wolf to do: it's 3 days to parity without a normal seer if Kiwi just votes for Seen. Killing Esemesas makes it 5 days to parity and exposes Suirantes, and if Suirantes dies (as he did) it goes to 6 days (however due to Rendap's death it actually didn't change). So Kiwi would have to be a gigantic moron, since even if this game him the perfect alibi and the seer never did anything, it still requires nobody finding an excuse to lynch him for the next five days. So let's move him off the list entirely. That leaves:
Falc as Petyr Tyraan, alien-possessed and insane Psyker Navigator of the Stella Maris
the_hdk as Hector Dan-Kliff, Navigator of the Resolution
reis91 as Leon Reis, Navigator of the Pegasus
Bagricula subbed by enkhuush as Atreus, Psyker Navigator of the Myces
Yakmanas Yriz Maud, Navigator of the Eternal Dilligence
Kingepyon as Russel Mathis, Navigator of the Sentry
Miotas as Lokir Sigrin, Navigator of the Valhalla
Vainglory as Fizzgig Korelov, Navigator of the Magicienne
Can't we take me off the list? I mean I killed Suirantes. I could have killed Rendap instead, which would have given Sui a respite and undermined confidence in the idea that Seen voters are wolves. Off the remaining eight people up there I really can't see how I'm a valid target for today. You could say I was trying to alibi and that Sui was dead anyway since the village would have returned to him (WereYak V shows that's untrue though; Bagricula the chew toy survived to be eaten in the end), so I was just maximizing my value. Okay, let's take that as a valid argument... it's still less likely than that I'm not a wolf. So for today there are better candidates.
Falc as Petyr Tyraan, alien-possessed and insane Psyker Navigator of the Stella Maris
the_hdk as Hector Dan-Kliff, Navigator of the Resolution
reis91 as Leon Reis, Navigator of the Pegasus
Bagricula subbed by enkhuush as Atreus, Psyker Navigator of the Myces
Yakmanas Yriz Maud, Navigator of the Eternal Dilligence
Kingepyon as Russel Mathis, Navigator of the Sentry
Miotas as Lokir Sigrin, Navigator of the Valhalla
Let's take Kingepyon off the list too. He did start the move on Suirantes, and Suirantes voted against him, and when Suirantes was tied up Kingepyon could have justified breaking the tie in Suirantes favor. It would have been reasonable for a villager to break that tie and save Sui to avoid a tie, because the tie brought parity closer. I don't consider Kingepyon totally cleared but for today he's a low-odds play.
Falc as Petyr Tyraan, alien-possessed and insane Psyker Navigator of the Stella Maris
the_hdk as Hector Dan-Kliff, Navigator of the Resolution
reis91 as Leon Reis, Navigator of the Pegasus
Bagricula subbed by enkhuush as Atreus, Psyker Navigator of the Myces
Yakmanas Yriz Maud, Navigator of the Eternal Dilligence
Miotas as Lokir Sigrin, Navigator of the Valhalla
I don't think we can remove anyone else from the list entirely but for the rest we should consider that Reis, Yak, Miotas, and Bag all voted to lynch a wolf once. Falc and the_hdk did not do so, and they ended Day 1 and 2 with their votes the only votes on people whose identities are unknown. Plus now we lack vote data for Day 3 on both of them.
I think we need the situation with Falc, the_hdk, and Bagricula to be resolved before we select targets.
Agreed. I mean, if I get substituted, I'd say it's only correct for me to keep my mouth shut for the rest of the game and that I'm not included in a potential victory.
Well, for the lack of better evidence, I will vote Yakman due to Suirantes's PM. If it was a (double) bluff from him, then well played, but I don't have anything more solid in regards to other people.
Because it influences my vote for the day. I have no issues with voting anyone of the 4. If 3 of them are hit by lightning, I'll vote Yak. If none of them are I have to consider more.
Well I prefer to lynch more likely wolves than AWOL people who were probably targeted by the Seer already or will be.