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Vainglory

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Should say that Enk was hunted, not lynched, but other than that it makes sense to me. Good outcome for Day 1, all things considered. Four candidates is usually useless for analysis, but this is a most intriguing situation, I suspect it will prove informational before the end.
 

Vainglory

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Night 0

Esemesas was hunted.

Day 1

(4) Najs - Enkhuush (141, 162), Reis91 (149, 159, 163), Falc (155, 176), Snoopdogg (187)

(3) Vainglory - Rendap (148), Johho888 (169), Randakar (145, 147)
(3) Randakar - Boris (146), Najs (144, 158), Vainglory (142, 175)
(3) Seen - the_hdk (183), Yakman (184), Teep (189)

(1) Boris ze Spider - Kingepyon (177)

Night 1

Enkhuush was hunted.
 
Last edited:

Vainglory

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Branigan's Law of Suspects says that at least one of Reis, Falc, or Snoop should be a wolf. Until I get another brainwave:

Vote Falc

Certainly I think there's something odd about yesterday that bears closer inspection than Branigan's Law of Suspects, but I just can't shake anything out of it yet.
 

esemesas

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What, I don't get to sub in?
 

reis91

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Damnit, shouldn't have bet so much on Najs... but I will have my money back with the next bet...

vote Kingepyon
 

esemesas

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reis91

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I had hoped that I would be hunted by wolves, because it will help seer to make JL bigger.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.

:cough: ghost rules :cough:
 

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I've been finding Branigan's Law less and less useful as of late. Like many village tactics, once they're well known, the wolves adapt...

That being said, the votes were rather nicely spread out. My gut feeling would be that, if there were a wolf in the running, we should have seen a bit more clumping. So for now, I'll go on the assumption that Vain, Randy and Seen (whoever ends up subbing him) are less likely wolves.

Even if you don't agree with that, I still strongly suggest we run up two or three OTHER people. First days should be spent gathering as much information as possible on as many people possible, not repeatedly focussing on the same people.

So, let's see... Despite what I said about Branigan's Law, it's not necessarily a bad point to start. Reis or snoop? Reis is being his usual self, while snoopdogg is silent. If he were a newbie, I'd count that as a big baddie tell, but I'm guessing in Snoop's case it's more a matter of the time of year.

VOTE REIS
 

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Guys, are you really sure about this lynching business? I mean do we really know that there are werewolves living around here? We've all been living here for years so shouldn't we know? Some more years than others. *looks with disgust at Pelinal Whitestrake*

And still we take the word of a tall dark stranger *sigh* that passed by over all we know about eachother? You never should trust those tall dark strangers! I trusted Tamius *deep sigh* and look where that got me!

Couldn't it be that the werewolf attacks are grossly exaggerated? Maybe Kash only stumbled on a root and fell and mutilated himself? And just look at how much more alive Jebbediah looks today! He doesn't seem eaten at all!

If this is all another ploy by you men where you say you are "hunting boars" when really all you do is prance around in those tight fitted tights *blushes* and compare the length of your arrows *starting to sweat* and the size of your bows... *starts fanning herself*

Oh, oh, oh, maybe I can see your point after all.

What are you waiting for? Get ready for the hunt and go get some werewolves for us! I'll make a werewolf fur hat for the first one that brings home a werewolf pelt.

Isn't that "Rat" a bit furry?

vote Yakman
 

randakar

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Branigan's Law of Suspects says that at least one of Reis, Falc, or Snoop should be a wolf.

I take it you missed my post at the end of the last page ..

I take it enkhuush was hunted, not lynched :p
Unless that last vote count was wildly inaccurate and we had a bunch of ghost votes on him that everyone somehow missed ..

edit:
Najs was good, I am good. That leaves one person of the frontrunners alive that I don't know the allegiance of: Vainglory.

For people who don't have the benefit of knowing what side I'm on here, I'd propose focusing analysis on the remaining living Najs voters: reis91, falc, and snoopdogg.

Also, another point here: I wasn't hunted. Too bad Boris didn't get into the danger zone, or I'd say that makes it less likely that Boris is a wolf.

Certainly I think there's something odd about yesterday that bears closer inspection than Branigan's Law of Suspects, but I just can't shake anything out of it yet.

Yes, there is. That hunt is interesting, for starters. But we're also looking at the interesting situation that despite heated debate between you, me, and Najs, the vote almost ground to a halt at the end. Nobody wanted to move anymore, despite there being good reasons for it. Najs's defense of himself made sense, yet none of the Najs voters moved away. Why?
As a wolf it's easy to explain. As a villager? Maybe a bit less so, depending on who we're actually talking about.
But ..

I'm wondering if reis's PM's to me, where he insists I must be part of some JL for "soft-outing boris", aren't a bit of a baddie tell. And he is on that list, too.
I'm loathe to run him up just for being himself, mind, but it does intrigue me.

I've been finding Branigan's Law less and less useful as of late. Like many village tactics, once they're well known, the wolves adapt...

True. They adapt, by making their votes move away from villager frontrunners and onto throwaway targets or wolves. That is actually exactly what the village wants though, since it means they consequently have less ways to steer the vote away from their packmates.

That being said, the votes were rather nicely spread out. My gut feeling would be that, if there were a wolf in the running, we should have seen a bit more clumping. So for now, I'll go on the assumption that Vain, Randy and Seen (whoever ends up subbing him) are less likely wolves.

Even if you don't agree with that, I still strongly suggest we run up two or three OTHER people. First days should be spent gathering as much information as possible on as many people possible, not repeatedly focussing on the same people.

Really, where is all this common sense coming from of late?


So, let's see... Despite what I said about Branigan's Law, it's not necessarily a bad point to start. Reis or snoop? Reis is being his usual self, while snoopdogg is silent. If he were a newbie, I'd count that as a big baddie tell, but I'm guessing in Snoop's case it's more a matter of the time of year.

I think it's just snoop being snoop. He doesn't usually talk a lot, except to bluster.
That however doesn't mean he isn't a wolf :p

@Johho - You do realize that that is a massive throwaway vote right now, right?
 

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Vote snoopdogg

Just to complete the triumvirate here.
 

johho888

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@Johho - You do realize that that is a massive throwaway vote right now, right?
Oh, I am soo sorry. I was just thinking about all the men in their green tights, merrily flexing their muscles and...

Where was I? Yes, so you'd think I didn't notice there were some real frontrunners with a whole vote each.
 

reis91

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I've been finding Branigan's Law less and less useful as of late. Like many village tactics, once they're well known, the wolves adapt...

It was never worth more than it's statistical weight in a specific situation. However, I invoke the law of independent events to defend myself.

So, let's see... Despite what I said about Branigan's Law, it's not necessarily a bad point to start. Reis or snoop? Reis is being his usual self, while snoopdogg is silent. If he were a newbie, I'd count that as a big baddie tell, but I'm guessing in Snoop's case it's more a matter of the time of year.

VOTE REIS

I have no usual self. I am utterly unpredictable, and you will not guess my game from tells or patterns.

A good place to start, however, is to look at the switching. Who did the switches, why, and with what results? One thing that is more probable than Branigan's Law is that one of the 4 runners was a wolf. If we take that gamble, and look at the switches that were done, we should have a better set of suspects than Branigan's Law of Statistical Inaccuracy.
 

Falc

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Really, where is all this common sense coming from of late?

It's always been there, it just gets drowned out by some more vocal but less sensible people...

A good place to start, however, is to look at the switching. Who did the switches, why, and with what results? One thing that is more probable than Branigan's Law is that one of the 4 runners was a wolf. If we take that gamble, and look at the switches that were done, we should have a better set of suspects than Branigan's Law of Statistical Inaccuracy.

While I agree with you in principle, the most interesting aspect of this roud of voting is that there was no activity whatsoever for the last 9 hours before deadline. 9 hours! With that much time left, any wolf pack that felt threatened could have easily started something to change some votes. I'm not going to rule it out, but I do believe that the wolves were perfectly happy with the state of affairs, leading me to conclude none of them were in the running.

All things considered, I should have unvoted Najs and picked a throwaway when I got up an hour before deadline. That could have given us a nice extra bit of info.
 

Vainglory

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@ Falc

The distribution of the votes gives credence to what you're saying about wolves adjusting to avoid being trapped by Branigan's Law of Suspects. If there were a lot of votes on Najs (or any other frontrunner) it's more likely there are wolves among them. Firstly, it's a zero-sum game so it's automatically more likely; 8/16 is more likely to contain wolves than 4/16, if you follow my meaning, although it doesn't make them easier to catch. The actual principle beneath the Law, as I see it, is that voting for the frontrunner is a good way of keeping your packmates out of harm's way - can't get lynched if they're a mile behind the frontrunner - and to avoid suspicion because voting for the frontrunner's OK.

In this case votes are scattered almost as evenly as they could be: 4-3-3-3-1/-2 non votes. This suggests the wolves diffused their voting strength to avoid detection. If they were online at the right times yesterday then with the way votes shook out it wouldn't be hard to have done. Quite possibly some just meant to make inconsequential votes that villagers inadvertently made more useful by adding to.

Now while I picked from Najs' killers, I don't actually disapprove of looking elsewhere. I very nearly voted Najs myself, and had I been online at deadline I'd have shifted onto him to lock it down. The only people I'd take off the hook are those who ran yesterday, for the simple reason of avoiding the damn village wrecking cycle of pursuing the same guys over and over. So not me, Randy, or Seen. So that only leaves, oh, eleven candidates...

Granted I have concluded, like others, that Seen or Randy being wolves is low odds play. The wolves would have had every reason to consolidate, not scatter, if there was a wolf among the group. This does hint (building guesses on guesses) that none of Najs' killers are wolves; if I were a wolf, online at deadline, and saw the ability to take four villagers with me, I'd do it. It would go from 12/4 to 7/4 the next day with the hunt. After the life was wagoned out of me we'd go to 5/3 -Parity Day on Day 3 with 0 days of information for the village? All it takes is one villager to guess wrong, with no information to go on unless the seer's had some luck, and the wolves win. But it's possible the wolves aren't gamblers, or weren't online.

Anyway, as for solid observations, we've got the diffused vote suggesting no wolves among the Day 1 candidates. That leaves 11 players. Making another stab here, I think Enkhuush being hunted might actually slightly exonerate the remaining players who voted for Najs - why narrow down the suspects list if your packmates are on it? Wolves have made this mistake many times, I know, but it makes more sense to me if they wanted to avoid clarifying anything about the Day 1 candidates by hunting any of them, and picked someone from the most likely victim's voters in order to avoid revealing anything about the composition of the other voters.

On this basis I'm going to move off of my first target and:

Unvote Falc
Vote Yakman


Multiplies my vote because he's already got one on him, and he's interesting, helping add a fourth candidate late in the day.
 

reis91

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Randy, read the thread again. I don't have baddie tells.

And yes, the hunt is quite curious. I wonder if there were other PM's flying around... enkhuush's post-mortem message might lead us to believe so. This somewhat increases my suspicions about randy, but, by itself, it is not conclusive.