Werewolf Lite CCXIX- Baldur's Gate: Stuck in Durlag's Tower

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Malurous

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I'm just going to say I won't be around at the deadline - it's 1am in my timezone, argh.

Well it's 3am here... I seriously doubt I'll ever be on at deadline this game.
 

Capt. Kiwi

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Has tamius ever used random.org before on a day other than day 1? This is fairly important; if he has, then his excuse may well have been true and his voting rendap mere coincidence. If not, however, then this would be reasonably strong evidence of him trying to save EURO.

That said, I'm now fairly convinced EUROO7 willingly sacrificed himself. At the very least, he didn't fight his death at all. Notice his vote on joeb near the end of the day, joeb only had one vote before then. I'm guessing EURO wanted to get himself lynched then it make it look like he was protecting me and rendap by not voting us. This is why I don't have Malurous as cleared. I sense alibi voting.

That's a good point. I don't think anyone currently involved in Werewolf on these forums uses random.org after day one, with the only exception I can think of being Rendap last Big - and he was a wolf. And I don't think we should be encouraging it, either.
 

EUROO7

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Those who use random.org for anything should be taken out back and shot.
 

Rendap

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That's a good point. I don't think anyone currently involved in Werewolf on these forums uses random.org after day one, with the only exception I can think of being Rendap last Big - and he was a wolf. And I don't think we should be encouraging it, either.

Correct that I did use it last big twice - And the reason was not that I was a wolf, but that I was under extreme pressure at work that day giving no chance of anything. I know now that I should "just" have jumped on one of the candidates, but that's how it is. Don't expect it to happen again... :)
 

reis91

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That's another argument to kill you instead of me. Still, I am not interested in killing you. I'm pondering whether to leave the possible pack combinations I established with my 1337 5k1ll5 to the village or just let them stew in their own noobishness.
 

Capt. Kiwi

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Votecount someone? I think it's reis and tamius on 3, and marty on 2, and a scattering of single votes?
 

reis91

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AOK, I have followed your teachings. The koolaid will set me free from this fail of a village.
 

Capt. Kiwi

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It would certainly seem you are innocent, given your lack of switch. Now to see whether that can be said of tamius.

And more no votes? *sigh*
 

snoopdogg

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Day Three: Reis the Leet mage and Tamius the Tamius got into a heated argument over which one was the most likely Doppleganger. To settle it, Reis cast a very leet lightning bolt and killed Tamius, who turned out to be a Doppleganger (Werewolf) after all. Unfortunately for poor Reis, while his casting was leet, his aim was terrible and the lightning immediately bounced off the wall and killed him next. One regular adventurer down.
Night Three:
Noone died during the night. Noone accept Anomen (Malurous) that is. No one liked Anomen very much, but the group is down another regular adventurer.

You lynched tamius the wolf and Reis the villager.
Malurous the villager was hunted.
 

Capt. Kiwi

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And in keeping with the curious hunt,

Vote von Loch Ness

Until he provides actual evidence of conversation with THE_SPLIT. I just don't see how the wolves would think they could go against him with an IJL, without having challenged him on the same day. So perhaps it's the real JL that hasn't countered?
 

joebthegreat

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A curious hunt, not what I'd have done.

VOTE CAPT. KIWI!

:p

...

UNVOTE CAPT. KIWI

I love how we're playing like a fail village from 2008 and still getting the job done.
 

jacob-Lundgren

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We succeed because they foul themselves in fear out of what my sword can do to them. ONWARD TO GLORY!
 

joebthegreat

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Until he provides actual evidence of conversation with THE_SPLIT. I just don't see how the wolves would think they could go against him with an IJL, without having challenged him on the same day. So perhaps it's the real JL that hasn't countered?

No, it's like you say. Any competant JL member would have publicly countered the claim.

Perhaps the seer scanned two wolves, or one wolf and one person who was hunted? We might not have any JL members, in which case vLN as a wolf is lucky (or genius). I won't assume vLN is a villager. I'd still gladly lynch him to prove his claim. If he IS a wolf, then I would assume there isn't a JL.

I'll be taking a longer look at marty99 and vLN. (Expect analysis within a couple hours).
 

joebthegreat

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NIGHT 0 said:
hunt Bagricula

DAY 1/NIGHT 1 said:
Taiisatai64 (5) - AVN, Kingepyon, randakar, joebthegreat, Vainglory
Vainglory (3) - von Loch Ness, jacob-Lundgren, Capt. Kiwi
reis91 (1) - EUROO7
AVN (1) - Taiisatai64
joebthegreat (1) - Rendap
jacob-Lundgren (1) - tamius23
Kingepyon (1) - THE_SPLIT
EUROO7 (1) - reis91
FAILED TO VOTE (2) - marty99, Malurous

hunt Vainglory

DAY 2/NIGHT 2 said:
EUROO7 (5) - joebthegreat, Capt. Kiwi, Rendap, Malurous, reis91
marty99 (2) - AVN, THE_SPLIT
joebthegreat (2) - randakar, EUROO7
Rendap (2) - marty99, tamius23
randakar (1) - Kingepyon
AVN (1) - jacob-Lundgren
FAILED TO VOTE (1) - von Loch Ness

hunt THE_SPLIT

Day 3/Night 3 said:
tamius23 (3) - Kingepyon, Rendap, von Loch Ness
reis91 (3) - Capt. Kiwi, Malurous, tamius23
marty99 (2) - AVN, jacob-Lundgren
randakar (1) - joebthegreat
Malurous (1) - reis91
AVN (1) - marty99
FAILED TO VOTE (1) - randakar

hunt Malurous

The main questions are:

Why would THE_SPLIT have scanned EUROO7 and von Loch Ness?

What plan might the wolves have had to protect/sell out EUROO7, and where would their votes be in that case.

What plan might the wolves have had to protect/sell out tamius23, and where would their votes be in that case.

Is there any logic to the hunting order?

---

EUROO7 is a common scan target, and it's not hard to believe he was scanned.

von Loch Ness is an old player who has returned. Anyone paying attention would recognize this. Old players returning after a long time tend to avoid early hunts/lynchings. It makes sense to scan him early to guarantee you build your JL.

It's also very difficult to lynch EUROO7 without outing him, so the scans are all on people who are difficult to lynch.

The scans von Loch Ness claims make internal sense.

---

EUROO7 died with 5 votes on him, there were three other players with 2 votes on them. Two of those three had wolf votes on them.

tamius23 died with 3 votes on him, there was another player with 3 votes, and another player with 2 votes. The player with 3 votes had a wolf vote on him.

The wolves may be doing one of two things. They are either voting to make it possible for villagers to switch to save their packmates' lives, or else they are trying to have nothing to do with each other.

Of the surviving voters on EUROO7, all three are the whole reason EUROO7 was even a name being considered for lynching. If a wolf voted for EUROO7, then that wolf was actively selling EUROO7 out.

Of all players who voted tamius23, every single one of them is responsible for the death of tamius23. If any one of them had switched their vote, tamius23 would have survived.

I come to the following conclusion: No matter what the wolves plan was, it is unlikely a wolf voted for either EUROO7 or tamius23.

This is the list I consider mostly cleared (in order from most likely goodie to least likely goodie): Rendap, Kingepyon, von Loch Ness, joebthegreat, Capt. Kiwi

If the wolves plan was to bring up multiple choices to be lynched, this is the list I consider most likely baddies (in order from most to least likely): jacob-Lundgren, AVN, marty99, randakar

If the wolves plan was to simply avoid having anything to do with each other, and we assume they didn't outright murder each other, this is the list I consider most likely baddies (in order from most to least likely): randakar, AVN, jacob-Lundgren, marty99

I think lynching AVN gives us the most possible information, due to his attempted lynching of marty99 the past two days, and the fact that he has been constantly receiving one vote each day, and nothing more.

---

The big question is: why hunt Malurous? Malurous would have been my go to lynch target today. He voted late on EUROO7, and his vote gave tamius23 the ability to take reis91 with him (came close to saving tamius23's life).

I can't come up with a good theory. I also can't understand why Vainglory was hunted. THE_SPLIT was the seer, but I don't see much reason he was hunted either.

The only thing I can conclude: The wolves are trying to hunt potential JL members (and von Loch Ness is lying), meaning they are going after people who wouldn't have publicly called von Loch Ness out. OR the wolves are stupid/not paying attention.

randakar hasn't been paying any attention this game. marty99 has been fairly inactive. Oh, look at this, von Loch Ness has been somewhat inactive this game as well.

The hunt on Malurous is the one thing that makes me suspect von Loch Ness, where I otherwise wouldn't have suspected him at all.

---

FINAL THOUGHTS:

VOTE RANDAKAR