EUROO7 said:
pjnlsn said:
EUROO7 said:
even if you don't believe me, the JL does know the remaining Seers (EURO, cymsdale, madchemist). so it's 3 seers vs 4 goodies who are all in communication in one way or another. You 3 might as well vote someone just in case it works. Otherwise the plan as perceived by the other JL members is that the 4 goodies will vote one of you. But for whatever reasons I have, i'll vote whoever you 3 vote.
Not good enough, pencil.
Give me your reasons.
Mathematically the Seers best shot is to all 3 vote someone.
The 3 other people in the JL plan to vote Cymsdale today. Mathematically the Seers chances are always better if they all 3 vote someone, no matter what I do. If you all 3 vote a follower and if the 3 JL people stay on Cymsdale, then Cymsdale plus a follower will die. If in that situation you 3 don't vote someone, the result will be worse for you.
If i'm lying and I quickly vote Cymsdale near deadline, that's 4 for cymsdale. If then all 3 Seers vote someone, only a baddie will be lynched, but this is the closest the Seers will be to lynching a goodie in that situation. If the 3 seers don't vote someone, they'll be even further away from lynching a goodie.
If i'm telling the truth and I vote whoever you guys vote, that's 4 votes on a goodie and 3 on Cymsdale, and the goodie dies. This is the best resut for the Seers. If the Seers don't all 3 vote someone in this situation they may not lynch a goodie and will be further away from lynching a goodie.
Mathematically, the best result for the Seers comes if they all 3 vote the same follower, regardless of whether I'm telling the truth.
I don't think you would believe me if I did explain, and as I've already said, mathematically it doesn't matter whether I'm believable.
But i'm stating my intention to vote with the 3 of you, is all.