This seems to be a huge wagon on poor Hebelcan. I wonder what that might mean, so will vote to counter act it. Vote Napoleon
-
We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
Joebs school of thought:
Vote the person who's voting the popular person when you realize that that has become the popular person
UNVOTE VAINGLORY
VOTE NAJS
What precisely is NSST?
Also:
Unvote Drxav
Vote Napoleon XIX
Hebelecan has been known to employ alibi votes on his own packmates before this game (eg Lite CCV) and Tamius assigned roles randomly. Therefore him being a wolf 2 times in a row (counting only Lites) isn't unlikely, nor is it unlikely that the newbie Napoleon XIX is a wolf.
I hate persecuting newbies but it would be good to run the pair up for analytical purposes and it looks like this quickly we've got our two for the day.
Also:
Unvote Drxav
Vote Napoleon XIX
Hebelecan has been known to employ alibi votes on his own packmates before this game (eg Lite CCV) and Tamius assigned roles randomly. Therefore him being a wolf 2 times in a row (counting only Lites) isn't unlikely, nor is it unlikely that the newbie Napoleon XIX is a wolf.
I hate persecuting newbies but it would be good to run the pair up for analytical purposes and it looks like this quickly we've got our two for the day.
(4) Hebelecan - Steed, Napoleon XIX, Morrell8, Najs
(3) Napoleon XIX - Hebelecan, Nautilu, Vainglory
(1) Drxav - The_Split
(1) The_Split - Esemesas
(1) Esemesas - Falc
(1) Najs - Joebthegreat
(3) Napoleon XIX - Hebelecan, Nautilu, Vainglory
(1) Drxav - The_Split
(1) The_Split - Esemesas
(1) Esemesas - Falc
(1) Najs - Joebthegreat
"Isn't unlikely", would mean likely, right? Also as roles are assigned at random both Hebel and Napoleon have equal chances of being a wolf....
Running yourself against the new guy is a good way to get killed.
Lets pick a target that isn't Napoleon XIX to run against hebelecan. I don't care if he is or isn't a wolf (it's Day 1 so there's no reason to suspect that he is anyway), we should at least let him make it to the mid game.
The same courtesy has been provided to almost everyone here.
Lets pick a target that isn't Napoleon XIX to run against hebelecan. I don't care if he is or isn't a wolf (it's Day 1 so there's no reason to suspect that he is anyway), we should at least let him make it to the mid game.
The same courtesy has been provided to almost everyone here.
Randy's method is to vote the third voter on day one.
Lord Strange-Randakar School of Thought
"On the first day, thou shalt vote the third voter above thyself"
Ah, okay, that explains things. I thought you were using the original LS school of thought, meaning you'd have taken 14 minutes to vote since that was the time between Split's vote and yours.
Which, now that I think about it, wasn't the right way to count that anyway.
@ Split
All I meant is that with randomization we know the odds of anything (in a statistically significant set) so if both Tami and I had randomized things the odds of Hebelecan being a wolf twice are lower (in a statistically significant set which 2 isn't, but still) than the odds of people being a wolf once. However I didn't randomize, so Hebelecan being a wolf is equally likely as me or anyone else being a wolf. And secondly, that because it's randomized a first-time-player wolf is equally as likely as anyone else - as compared to assigned roles.
@ Joeb
I agree with you on the courtesy thing, but as I said Hebelecan's been known to utilize alibi voting on Day 1. My concern here would be that if a new candidate comes up then Napoleon fades from view. If Hebelecan survives the lynch then tomorrow it's "Let's not run the same person up again". So what I'm saying is that while I expected today to be random, if we're running up Hebelecan then running up his vote potentially gets us more information than running up anyone else.
All I meant is that with randomization we know the odds of anything (in a statistically significant set) so if both Tami and I had randomized things the odds of Hebelecan being a wolf twice are lower (in a statistically significant set which 2 isn't, but still) than the odds of people being a wolf once. However I didn't randomize, so Hebelecan being a wolf is equally likely as me or anyone else being a wolf. And secondly, that because it's randomized a first-time-player wolf is equally as likely as anyone else - as compared to assigned roles.
@ Joeb
I agree with you on the courtesy thing, but as I said Hebelecan's been known to utilize alibi voting on Day 1. My concern here would be that if a new candidate comes up then Napoleon fades from view. If Hebelecan survives the lynch then tomorrow it's "Let's not run the same person up again". So what I'm saying is that while I expected today to be random, if we're running up Hebelecan then running up his vote potentially gets us more information than running up anyone else.
This argument is a falacy. The odds of something do not decrease based on prior events. The odds of someone being a wolf two games in a row are low, HOWEVER, once someone has been a wolf in one game, the odds of them being a wolf in the next game remain the same. The lower odds of them being a wolf two games in a row does not come from lower odds of being a wolf in the second game, but those odds come from many more various groups of roles a player can be in two games in a row compared to one game.
... Or to put it this way. You've flipped a coin and the coin comes up heads. Now if you flip the coin again, is there a 50% chance of it coming up heads, or is it higher or lower?
He isn't more or less likely to be a wolf no matter HOW you selected your wolves. You did or you didn't randomize... that has physically no effect on the likelihood of hebelecan being randomly selected as a wolf in this game.
(EDIT: or am I misreading what you're saying here?)
I'm a little bit confused as to what you're arguing here. Are you saying if hebelecan is a wolf then NapoleonXIX is more likely to be a wolf? That doesn't mean you should run them both up... How is hebelecan going to survive the lynch if the only person he's run up against is a new player?
I'd say we'd get more information if it was a genuine race, than if it was a race that we already know one player is going to lose.
The odds of anyone being a wolf two games in a row is 16/289. Assuming they are both randomised.
The odds of anyone being a wolf in one randomized game is 4/17... no matter what they were in the previous game.
You're misreading it, but it's largely irrelevant anyway. It was more to point out that in a randomized set Napoleon being a wolf is equally as probable as anyone else (compared with GM setting it). Which I suppose in and of itself, wasn't even worth pointing out unless someone had said "But he's new so he's an unlikely wolf".
Yes, that is what I am arguing, basically (and vice versa: if Napoleon XIX is a wolf then Hebelecan is more likely to be a wolf). I am glad that you've included the words "more likely" because I don't claim it's a certainty, or that it's probable, just that it is more likely. That is, it is more likely someone Hebelecan votes on the first day (when he does not expect them to get lynched) is a packmate, than it is that any other player is his packmate.
This is my dilemma: if it's a genuine race and Hebelecan survives then tomorrow we'll dismiss everything and he slips away. IMHO we've got a better chance of gaining information if it's Hebelecan or Napoleon XIX that dies, at this juncture, than anyone else, because of previously known Hebelecan behavior. I mean, I wasn't going to run on this theory, and a competing one might be better, but since Hebelecan leaped ahead...
But if you want a genuine race, go for it, I won't dissuade anyone, per se, but I will try my hardest to get Hebelecan lynched for informational purposes.
Vain, being bad at math and using logical fallacies is old. I did that back in the most recent Lite hosted by Jacob. Randy was the one to crush me there, looks like you got joeb instead.
I can target you if you'd like? Besides, I wasn't bad at maths, nor did I engage in logical fallacies. I'll leave the former to you, since you claim to be good at it, and the latter to around 1/4 of the player base here.
You think being dead will stop any of these people from spamming?
UNVOTE ESEMESAS
VOTE SPLIT
for living in la-la land...
UNVOTE ESEMESAS
VOTE SPLIT
for living in la-la land...