Werewolf Lite CCV: Invasion Normandy

[Capt. Kiwi]

Night 0

Hunted: drxav

Day 1

(6) Capt. Kiwi - Najs, Falc, jacob-Lundgren, Eternaly_Lost, EUROO7, tamius23
(1) EUROO7 - hebelecan
(7) tamius23 - Lord Strange, marty99, joebthegreat, trespoe, Capt. Kiwi, Kingepyon, esemesas
(1) Falc - Boris ze Spider
(1) marty99 - Rysz

Hunted: Falc

Day 2

(3) Lord Strange - hebelecan, Eternaly_Lost, marty99
(1) marty99 - jacob-Lundgren
(6) jacob-Lundgren - trespoe, Kingepyon, esemesas, joebthegreat, Capt. Kiwi, Boris ze Spider
(2) joebthegreat - Rysz, Najs

nv: Lord Strange, EUROO7
Hunted: Eternaly_Lost

Day 3

(5) Capt. Kiwi - Capt. Kiwi, Najs, snoopdogg(LS), hebelecan, trespoe
(2) Najs - Boris ze Spider, randakar(EURO)
(1) joebthegreat - Rysz
(3) trespoe - joebthegreat, marty99, Kingepyon
(1) snoopdogg(LS) - esemesas

 

[esemesas]

I think it's more that you're linked with Capt. Kiwi...

Personally I don't think a Capt. Kiwi, Najs, trespoe, esemesas pack makes sense. (I thought I posted this but I can't find the post looking back... hmmmm...)

Najs and Capt. Kiwi don't make sense in the same pack. They've both been very active and in the spotlight, Najs' Day 1 vote helped put Capt. Kiwi in a position to be a lynch target for the whole day (and he was online and active for the day, so he knew what effect his vote was having). He kept that vote on Capt. Kiwi all the way to the end and didn't even snipe to make the lynch of tamius23 snipe-proof. So he might be a REALLY ballsy wolf in Capt. Kiwi's pack, or more likely they aren't both wolves.

trespoe might be in Capt. Kiwi's or Najs' pack, it certainly shouldn't be overlooked yet, his name was brought up with me and Capt. Kiwi, and yet the people who brought his name up have made no effort at all to get him lynched.

As for you, esemesas, I don't think a wolf would have made such an attention getting vote as the one you made on Day 1. It could be seen as a wolf protecting Capt. Kiwi his pack mate, but it's very possibly just a villager getting caught in a situation, and wolves trying to hammer the issue to avoid attention on themselves.

(EDIT: I would like to thank Boris ze Spider for his analysis though... while I might not agree with the end pack he suggests I'm glad to see some actual discussion on his part)

---

Now what pack might make sense to you, esemesas?

I can't believe the TIE got me so much attention, but only now have I realised that I didn't explain my actions

Basically, ties this close to the deadline are beneficial if we look at the times of the breaking. A villager will most likely break the TIE about 1-2 minutes to deadline, since no-one wants to break the tie and become a murderer, but it is a necessity.

However, were there a wolf between the tied people, his packmates would jump to save him sooner, because the last-minute voting of the villagers may end up lynching the wolf, so they would want to put one candidate that isn't a wolf in the lead to make the village less likely to make lots of last minute votes.

Now, while my theory gave no fruit, I still think that a Lord Strange/snoop-jacob-Boris-Najs pack is a possibility, although Najs seems to be the least likely wolf to me.

Other than that, I can't say I can ping any "packs" as such, only likely wolves. Capt. Kiwi being one, for somehow I feel he is testing to see how much his wonderful form so far is influencing people and if he wins this game, we'll probably have the second coming of Euro(he's nicer than Euro and less bolded magenta, but still).

 

[joebthegreat]

I can't believe the TIE got me so much attention, but only now have I realised that I didn't explain my actions

Basically, ties this close to the deadline are beneficial if we look at the times of the breaking. A villager will most likely break the TIE about 1-2 minutes to deadline, since no-one wants to break the tie and become a murderer, but it is a necessity.

However, were there a wolf between the tied people, his packmates would jump to save him sooner, because the last-minute voting of the villagers may end up lynching the wolf, so they would want to put one candidate that isn't a wolf in the lead to make the village less likely to make lots of last minute votes.

While I can understand what you say in principle, the fact that you do it so close to deadline makes it more likely that villagers will fall over themselves trying to stop the TIE from happening. It creates chaos when done too close to the deadline and that chaos is what can end up creating real TIEs.

Now, while my theory gave no fruit, I still think that a Lord Strange/snoop-jacob-Boris-Najs pack is a possibility, although Najs seems to be the least likely wolf to me.

Other than that, I can't say I can ping any "packs" as such, only likely wolves. Capt. Kiwi being one, for somehow I feel he is testing to see how much his wonderful form so far is influencing people and if he wins this game, we'll probably have the second coming of Euro(he's nicer than Euro and less bolded magenta, but still).

How can a (Lord Strange)/snoopdogg, jacob-Lundgren, Boris, Najs pack work when jacob-Lundgren is dead?

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

I find a bolded pale green much less agressive on the eyes than magenta.

 

[Najs]

I have to say that Kiwi's lead right now is a bit disturbing. Even more disturbing is his willingness to die.
Time for a new leader perhaps?

Unvote Kiwi
Vote trespoe

 

[joebthegreat]

Speaking of TIEs I've been thinking...

12 players 4 wolves. Today

10 players 4 wolves. Tomorrow

Option 1:

8 players 3 wolves (If we don't get a wolf we reach parity)

6 players 2 wolves (If we don't get a wolf we reach parity)

4 players 1 wolf (If we don't get a wolf we reach parity)

2 players 0 wolves (If we don't get a wolf we reach parity)

OR

Option 2:

7 players 3 wolves (if we don't get a wolf we reach parity)

5 players 2 wolves (if we don't get a wolf we reach parity)

3 players 1 wolf (if we don't get a wolf we reach parity)

1 player 0 wolves (if we don't get a wolf we reach parity)

---

Can someone find fault in the logic? It makes sense for us to try a TIE tomorrow to increase the chance of finding a wolf, and it won't exactly change that we'll need to find a wolf 4 days in a row.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

We're already on ten villagers four wolves. This is the last time we can lynch a villager without it being an instant win for the wolves, unless there's a tie. Unless that's what you're saying?

The standard lite setup is a race to see which side can lynch four of the other, unless ties complicates things.

 

[esemesas]

How can a (Lord Strange)/snoopdogg, jacob-Lundgren, Boris, Najs pack work when jacob-Lundgren is dead?

Erm, what I meant to say was joeb, not jacob

 

[joebthegreat]

We're already on ten villagers four wolves. This is the last time we can lynch a villager without it being an instant win for the wolves, unless there's a tie. Unless that's what you're saying?

The standard lite setup is a race to see which side can lynch four of the other, unless ties complicates things.

We have 12 players alive today... 8 villagers and 4 wolves... We are not going to hit parity tomorrow unless something seriously crazy happens.

EDIT: nevermind, I just realized what you meant...

---

What I'm saying is that if we still haven't lynched a wolf by tomorrow, then there is no reason NOT to try for a TIE tomorrow...

 

[Vainglory]

What I'm saying is that if we still haven't lynched a wolf by tomorrow, then there is no reason NOT to try for a TIE tomorrow...

You mean a glorious, Lemeard approved TIE?

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

No, my fault - I miscounted how many were left. We are on 8 villagers/4 wolves right now, and if we can't find a wolf today we're 6 villagers/4 wolves, and one villager lynching away from a loss. Which is the same conclusion I made, I just had my numbers for right now wrong.

And yes, a tie would then save us if we got it wrong. Though only for one round, and only if it wasn't a tie of villagers.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

One hour to deadline.

Night 0

Hunted: drxav

Day 1

(6) Capt. Kiwi - Najs, Falc, jacob-Lundgren, Eternaly_Lost, EUROO7, tamius23
(1) EUROO7 - hebelecan
(7) tamius23 - Lord Strange, marty99, joebthegreat, trespoe, Capt. Kiwi, Kingepyon, esemesas
(1) Falc - Boris ze Spider
(1) marty99 - Rysz

Hunted: Falc

Day 2

(3) Lord Strange - hebelecan, Eternaly_Lost, marty99
(1) marty99 - jacob-Lundgren
(6) jacob-Lundgren - trespoe, Kingepyon, esemesas, joebthegreat, Capt. Kiwi, Boris ze Spider
(2) joebthegreat - Rysz, Najs

nv: Lord Strange, EUROO7
Hunted: Eternaly_Lost

Day 3

(4) Capt. Kiwi - Capt. Kiwi, snoopdogg(LS), hebelecan, trespoe
(2) Najs - Boris ze Spider, randakar(EURO)
(1) joebthegreat - Rysz
(4) trespoe - joebthegreat, marty99, Kingepyon, Najs
(1) snoopdogg(LS) - esemesas

 

[drxav]

Still haven't caught a wolf you bunch of useless tossers? Are you quitting on me? Well, are you? Then quit, you slimy fucking walrus-looking piece of shit! Get the fuck off of my obstacle! Get the fuck down off of my obstacle! NOW! MOVE IT! Or I'm going to rip your balls off, so you cannot contaminate the rest of the world! I will motivate you, Private Parts, IF IT SHORT-DICKS EVERY CANNIBAL ON THE CONGO!

I'LL UNSCREW YOUR HEAD AND SHIT DOWN YOUR NECK!!!

 

[marty99]

No, we are not going to consciously attempt a tie tomorrow, the reasons are obvious but I'll outline them anyway.

In theory, it makes sense to try a tie tomorrow (if we don't get a wolf today) but in reality it generally always fails in my experience, and it's easy to see why.

The only scenario in which a tie would produce a good outcome (i.e. the village living on) where lynching one player would lead to defeat, is if it was a tie between a wolf and a villager/the seer.
If we ever get near to tying the two, the wolves would simply snipe to save the wolf. This would actually guarantee parity more than a single lynch, because it gives the wolves the power to choose which one of the two to lynch.
A tie tomorrow, therefore, is tantamount to suicide, the chances of running up two wolves in the potential tie are next to zero and so if we try to tie two people it can only end in victory for the wolves.


If we are going to have a tie, we have it today. Thursday night's all right for tying.

 

[marty99]

Could someone please explain to me why I'm linked with trespoe?

You placed an innocuous vote on Trespoe, then as soon as joeb voted him and put him in the running, you immediately switched off. I found it a little weird at least,

 

[joebthegreat]

No, we are not going to consciously attempt a tie tomorrow, the reasons are obvious but I'll outline them anyway.

In theory, it makes sense to try a tie tomorrow (if we don't get a wolf today) but in reality it generally always fails in my experience, and it's easy to see why.

The only scenario in which a tie would produce a good outcome (i.e. the village living on) where lynching one player would lead to defeat, is if it was a tie between a wolf and a villager/the seer.
If we ever get near to tying the two, the wolves would simply snipe to save the wolf. This would actually guarantee parity more than a single lynch, because it gives the wolves the power to choose which one of the two to lynch.
A tie tomorrow, therefore, is tantamount to suicide, the chances of running up two wolves in the potential tie are next to zero and so if we try to tie two people it can only end in victory for the wolves.

If we are going to have a tie, we have it today. Thursday night's all right for tying.

I see what you say... makes enough sense...

TIE between Capt. Kiwi and trespoe?

 

[Najs]

I see what you say... makes enough sense...

TIE between Capt. Kiwi and trespoe?

Kiwi is currently voting himself so he will just snipe the tie, but I think trespoe isn't all bad to hang either.

And what the heck did randy mean by this?

Vote Najs

This will make it closer.

It didn't make it closer at all. If he wanted to make it closer he should have voted trespoe.
trespoe-randy pack working in front of our eyes?

 

[marty99]

I see what you say... makes enough sense...

TIE between Capt. Kiwi and trespoe?

Today? That seems as good a choice as any, I'm up for it. What's the count?

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

It's a tie, with both trespoe and me voting me.

 

[joebthegreat]

(4) Capt. Kiwi - Capt. Kiwi, snoopdogg(LS), hebelecan, trespoe
(2) Najs - Boris ze Spider, randakar(EURO)
(1) joebthegreat - Rysz
(4) trespoe - joebthegreat, marty99, Kingepyon, Najs
(1) snoopdogg(LS) - esemesas

We'll need someone to switch to Capt. Kiwi to make it a 5 v 4 situation though.