-
We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
To clarify: I would have made this hunt as a wolf. I would also not hide the fact in the thread.
Well, there goes the inactive wolves hypothesis. I was kind of suspicious of videonfan, too, so my gut instinct seems to be horribly wrong so far this game. I'll try to look later today for a good candidate.
OK, so with two days gone, we should have a fair amount of useful information to work with. Here's a list of all the remaining players and a quick summary of my thoughts on them:
Wagonlitz - Likely to hunt inactive players, according to other people on the thread. Broke the day 1 tie; it hit a villager, but it saved at least 1 (videonfan), and maybe two depending on what leksu is, so probably not a baddie move; maybe more suspicious if leksu is a wolf, but strikes me as likely good guy. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, EURO (unknown) on day 2.
EUROO7 - Likely to hunt inactive players, according to other people on the thread and himself. Says that the wolves are doing things that he'd do as a wolf (maybe some goodie points there for being open about that?). Didn't really answer Wagonlitz's question as to his not breaking the tie on day 1. Voted leksu (unknown) day 1, and THE_SPLIT (villager) day 2. Not sure what to make of him, but overall, feels like a good suspect to me, currently my best guess.
Gen. Skobelev - Likely to hunt inactive players, according to other people on the thread. Suggested hunts could be designed to frame people. Could easily be wolf or villager. Voted leksu (unknown) day 1, EUROO7 (unknown) day 2.
aedan777 - Thought first night hunt likely deliberate attempt to weed out inactives. Throwaway vote week 2, cited lack of info. Could easily be wolf or villager. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, Hax (unknown) day 2.
Panzer Commader - Bad voting record, but dislikes lynching/hunting first-time players (unlikely to hunt Tabanese?). Not much else to go on, but for now he's pretty low on my likely wolf list. Voted videonfan (villager) day 1 and day 2.
Hax - Not really much to go on. Could easily be wolf or villager. Voted EURO (unknown) day 1 (revenge vote?), madchemist (unknown) day 2.
Vainglory - Bad voting record, also placed non-random votes to put candidates into the lead on days 1 and 2, causing fairly substantial conflict with SPLIT as well. Currently leaning slightly towards him being wolf. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, THE_SPLIT (villager) day 2.
jcucc - Basically nothing to go on, could easily be wolf or villager. Voted BlackBishop (unknown) day 1, nobody day 2.
snoopdogg - Again, very little to go on; bad voting record, but could easily be wolf or villager. Voted videonfan (villager) day 1, and THE_SPLIT (villager) day 2.
leksu - Also not much to go on, could easily be wolf or villager. Voted EUROO7 (unknown) day 1, madchemist (unknown) day 2.
BlackBishop - Not a lot to go on, but does nice RP. Could easily be wolf or villager. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, Panzer (unknown) day 2.
madchemist - Bad voting record, but not much else to go on. I know I'm a villager, but from an outside perspective, could easily be either wolf or villager. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, THE_SPLIT (villager) day 2.
My guesses for wolves, from most to least likely: EUROO7, Vainglory, various other people, Panzer Commader, Wagonlitz.
Accordingly, I will
unvote jcucc
vote EUROO7
Wagonlitz - Likely to hunt inactive players, according to other people on the thread. Broke the day 1 tie; it hit a villager, but it saved at least 1 (videonfan), and maybe two depending on what leksu is, so probably not a baddie move; maybe more suspicious if leksu is a wolf, but strikes me as likely good guy. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, EURO (unknown) on day 2.
EUROO7 - Likely to hunt inactive players, according to other people on the thread and himself. Says that the wolves are doing things that he'd do as a wolf (maybe some goodie points there for being open about that?). Didn't really answer Wagonlitz's question as to his not breaking the tie on day 1. Voted leksu (unknown) day 1, and THE_SPLIT (villager) day 2. Not sure what to make of him, but overall, feels like a good suspect to me, currently my best guess.
Gen. Skobelev - Likely to hunt inactive players, according to other people on the thread. Suggested hunts could be designed to frame people. Could easily be wolf or villager. Voted leksu (unknown) day 1, EUROO7 (unknown) day 2.
aedan777 - Thought first night hunt likely deliberate attempt to weed out inactives. Throwaway vote week 2, cited lack of info. Could easily be wolf or villager. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, Hax (unknown) day 2.
Panzer Commader - Bad voting record, but dislikes lynching/hunting first-time players (unlikely to hunt Tabanese?). Not much else to go on, but for now he's pretty low on my likely wolf list. Voted videonfan (villager) day 1 and day 2.
Hax - Not really much to go on. Could easily be wolf or villager. Voted EURO (unknown) day 1 (revenge vote?), madchemist (unknown) day 2.
Vainglory - Bad voting record, also placed non-random votes to put candidates into the lead on days 1 and 2, causing fairly substantial conflict with SPLIT as well. Currently leaning slightly towards him being wolf. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, THE_SPLIT (villager) day 2.
jcucc - Basically nothing to go on, could easily be wolf or villager. Voted BlackBishop (unknown) day 1, nobody day 2.
snoopdogg - Again, very little to go on; bad voting record, but could easily be wolf or villager. Voted videonfan (villager) day 1, and THE_SPLIT (villager) day 2.
leksu - Also not much to go on, could easily be wolf or villager. Voted EUROO7 (unknown) day 1, madchemist (unknown) day 2.
BlackBishop - Not a lot to go on, but does nice RP. Could easily be wolf or villager. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, Panzer (unknown) day 2.
madchemist - Bad voting record, but not much else to go on. I know I'm a villager, but from an outside perspective, could easily be either wolf or villager. Voted tonkatoy (villager) day 1, THE_SPLIT (villager) day 2.
My guesses for wolves, from most to least likely: EUROO7, Vainglory, various other people, Panzer Commader, Wagonlitz.
Accordingly, I will
unvote jcucc
vote EUROO7
The lupine plot claims its first victim. Not surprisingly, it's a noob. Upsetting that it's this one in particular, though.
Night 1
jacob-Lundgren the villager is hunted.
Day 1
tonkatoy5: 5
BlackBishop [79]
madchemist [82]
Vainglory [84]
aedan777 [97]
Wagonlitz [86 videonfan -> 111]
leksu: 4
tonkatoy5 [77]
Gen. Skobelev [90]
EUROO7 [78 Hax -> 98]
THE_SPLIT [93 Madchemist -> 106]
videonfan: 3
videonfan [91]
snoopdogg [94]
Panzer Commader [102]
EUROO7: 2
leksu [76]
Hax [95]
Blackbishop: 1
jcucc [80]
Not voted: 1
Tabanese
tonkatoy5 the villager was lynched.
Night 2
Tabanese the villager was hunted.
Day 2
THE_SPLIT: 5]
snoopdogg [126]
Vainglory [127]
madchemist [128 Panzer Commader -> 159]
EUROO7 [147 videonfan -> 160]
videonfan [141 EUROO7 -> 161]
EUROO7: 2
Gen. Skobelev [135]
Wagonlitz [136]
Madchemist: 2
Hax [131]
leksu [140]
Panzer Commader: 1
BlackBishop [125]
Vainglory: 1
THE_SPLIT [133]
Hax :1
aedan777 [146]
videonfan: 1
Panzer Commader [139 Vainglory -> 156 unvote -> 158]
Not voted: 1
jcucc []
THE_SPLIT the villager was lynched.
Night 3
videonfan the villager was hunted.
jacob-Lundgren the villager is hunted.
Day 1
tonkatoy5: 5
BlackBishop [79]
madchemist [82]
Vainglory [84]
aedan777 [97]
Wagonlitz [86 videonfan -> 111]
leksu: 4
tonkatoy5 [77]
Gen. Skobelev [90]
EUROO7 [78 Hax -> 98]
THE_SPLIT [93 Madchemist -> 106]
videonfan: 3
videonfan [91]
snoopdogg [94]
Panzer Commader [102]
EUROO7: 2
leksu [76]
Hax [95]
Blackbishop: 1
jcucc [80]
Not voted: 1
Tabanese
tonkatoy5 the villager was lynched.
Night 2
Tabanese the villager was hunted.
Day 2
THE_SPLIT: 5]
snoopdogg [126]
Vainglory [127]
madchemist [128 Panzer Commader -> 159]
EUROO7 [147 videonfan -> 160]
videonfan [141 EUROO7 -> 161]
EUROO7: 2
Gen. Skobelev [135]
Wagonlitz [136]
Madchemist: 2
Hax [131]
leksu [140]
Panzer Commader: 1
BlackBishop [125]
Vainglory: 1
THE_SPLIT [133]
Hax :1
aedan777 [146]
videonfan: 1
Panzer Commader [139 Vainglory -> 156 unvote -> 158]
Not voted: 1
jcucc []
THE_SPLIT the villager was lynched.
Night 3
videonfan the villager was hunted.
leksu: 2
Hax [176]
snoopdogg [189]
EUROO7: 2
BlackBishop [188]
madchemist [177 jcucc -> 193]
jcucc: 2
EUROO7 [173]
Vainglory [195]
Not voted: 6
jcucc []
Gen. Skobelev []
Wagonlitz []
leksu []
aedan777 []
Panzer Commader []
Hax [176]
snoopdogg [189]
EUROO7: 2
BlackBishop [188]
madchemist [177 jcucc -> 193]
jcucc: 2
EUROO7 [173]
Vainglory [195]
Not voted: 6
jcucc []
Gen. Skobelev []
Wagonlitz []
leksu []
aedan777 []
Panzer Commader []
First, sorry for being so inactive. Deadline is at midnight here so that limits it a bit and then Walpurgis night/May day also took its toll. I'll have to see if I can be up a bit more closer to deadline.
Looks like the update said at first no hunt. Apparently GM mistake but since it's first time for Arkasas, I think, I think it would be good to remind (just in case) not to accept orders once deadline has passed. Update seems a bit suspect in that regards but most likely explanation is just some other GM error.
Hmm, care to elaborate? Or do you mean that they are scared of you and thus voting you? Seems like your award-winning balls have scared them.
As for more thorough analysis I think I'll need to clear my head properly as I don't seem to manage to get any meaningful thoughts out. However, I'll
vote jcucc
since zombies are indeed bad. He voted once, relatively early in the first day and apparently has done nothing since then.
Looks like the update said at first no hunt. Apparently GM mistake but since it's first time for Arkasas, I think, I think it would be good to remind (just in case) not to accept orders once deadline has passed. Update seems a bit suspect in that regards but most likely explanation is just some other GM error.
Hmm, care to elaborate? Or do you mean that they are scared of you and thus voting you? Seems like your award-winning balls have scared them.
As for more thorough analysis I think I'll need to clear my head properly as I don't seem to manage to get any meaningful thoughts out. However, I'll
vote jcucc
since zombies are indeed bad. He voted once, relatively early in the first day and apparently has done nothing since then.
Yes the first day was a "revenge" vote on Euro and I also didn't want to jump on one of the bandwagons. On the second day I voted on you just so could feel some pressure. Maybe I should have changed my vote to tonka but it was too close to deadline and the gap between him and Euro would have made my vote look suspicious.
If you ask me I would say that jcucc, Euro and lesku are all good candidates and at least one of them should be lynched today if we don't get an outing soon...
I wasn't going to dignify this with a reply... then I decided you're so wrong on so many levels you need urgent correcting.
1. The fact that I have twice voted people who subsequently proved to be villagers means nothing at all because:
A. None of the alternative candidates has proved to be a wolf yet, thus there's no argument that I was "protecting" anyone.
B. You cannot even suggest I shouldn't have voted for those two with foresight: there was nothing indicative that they were more likely villagers than others.
2. Non-random votes such as I placed are a good thing for the village because:
A. If I was a wolf then I have placed myself in a position where I can be exposed
B. It concentrates votes in a manner that eases analysis
3. I didn't cause "substantial conflict with SPLIT". This is the silliest of all the things you said because:
A. It's utterly irrelevant. There's simply no reason why an argument with THE_SPLIT would mean I'm a wolf.
B. THE_SPLIT revenge voted me, as proven by his pathetic excuse.
C. So if anything he initiated the conflict.
D. Which at about two posts isn't substantial.
E. THE_SPLIT is one of the most belligerent people playing here.
F. It's his MO to threaten anyone who votes against him, so if anything Snoop and I ought to be lauded for bothering to face his wroth - such as it is.
Final Mark: 3/10 since at least your spelling and grammar was okay, but in terms of argument it was below expectations. Please put more thought into your homework in future.