Werewolf Lite CCLXXXI: Alexander and the Werelephants

[Cliges]

Book 3

In India, more specifically, the kingdom of Porus, Alexander holds a council. One officer raises the reasonable objection “We brought war to Darius because he demanded our tribute. Why should be fight in this dry and wretched land, full of beasts. Charges raise again about shape shifting sympathies, of which he is found to be entirely innocent. Therefore, doing away with him is rationalized as a just punishment for cowardice and insufficient devotion to Alex.


King Porus sets his beast armies upon the Macedonians, but Alexander has a clever defense prepared. He's required that all bronze statues and armour pillaged thus far be heated and set before them as a barrier. The thoughtless beasts charge the wall and are easily defeated due to severe burns. Poor things. But one officer is subdued by an attack from the opposite direction.

Falc the villager was lynched
tonkatoy5 the villager was hunted

The royal treasurer had this struck to show what he thinks a Werelephant looks like.

 

[Daffius]

Ok, so can we now lynch wagonlitz already? Or y'll would prefer to lynch another villager?

 

[Wagonlitz]

Ok, so can we now lynch wagonlitz already? Or y'll would prefer to lynch another villager?

So you want to lynch me, because I thought Falc was the most suspicious yesterday; I gave my reasons when voting - his save - and I had no way to know that he was a villager. Right now I would say aedan is suspicious, because he sniped instead of changing his vote earlier and because of my suspicion against him after day 1. That aedan changed to Falc isn't suspicious though since it saved himself and the snipe could be because he thought that somebody would reestablish the tie if he changed earlier. Therefore I wont vote yet.

 

[Daffius]

So you want to lynch me, because I thought Falc was the most suspicious yesterday; I gave my reasons when voting - his save - and I had no way to know that he was a villager. Right now I would say aedan is suspicious, because he sniped instead of changing his vote earlier and because of my suspicion against him after day 1. That aedan changed to Falc isn't suspicious though since it saved himself and the snipe could be because he thought that somebody would reestablish the tie if he changed earlier. Therefore I wont vote yet.

Seriously? Dude, you're kidding right?
Your whole theory started off with Falc saving Aedan. Since Falc is a villager, why on earth would he want to save Aedan the wolf?? Aedan was run up so the wolves obiously didn't save him, only a villager did. Aedan is as clear as he can get...

Can we lynch you already?

Vote wagonlitz

 

[Wagonlitz]

Seriously? Dude, you're kidding right?
Your whole theory started off with Falc saving Aedan. Since Falc is a villager, why on earth would he want to save Aedan the wolf?? Aedan was run up so the wolves obiously didn't save him, only a villager did. Aedan is as clear as he can get...

Can we lynch you already?

Vote wagonlitz

I was wrong regarding Falc, but aedan wasn't saved by someone else; he saved himself and he did it so late people hardly could respond if they wanted to. So I wouldn't say that he is as clear as he can get. Actually the person hunted voted aedan, and even though that probably is a coinsidence it is worth remembering.

 

[Daffius]

I was wrong regarding Falc, but aedan wasn't saved by someone else; he saved himself and he did it so late people hardly could respond if they wanted to. So I wouldn't say that he is as clear as he can get. Actually the person hunted voted aedan, and even though that probably is a coinsidence it is worth remembering.

You miss the point.
Day 1: Falc saves Aedan.
This means, a villager saved Aedan! So if falc doesn't switch votes the wolves would have happily let Aedan die. This means Aedan is unlikely to be a wolf!
Day 2: Aedan snipes, but it is self preservation, I cannot see why that would be suspicious to anyone.

Your behavior is more than wolfish and I'm more certain of it each moment.



Also, another interesting fact (completely unrelated), why would the wolves hunt someone that has a chance to be run up next day (Tonka)? It really looks like either a) standing order on Tonka that was unchanged b) alibi creation for a smart wolf (won't comment more on b yet)

 

[Wagonlitz]

You miss the point.
Day 1: Falc saves Aedan.
This means, a villager saved Aedan! So if falc doesn't switch votes the wolves would have happily let Aedan die. This means Aedan is unlikely to be a wolf!
Day 2: Aedan snipes, but it is self preservation, I cannot see why that would be suspicious to anyone.

Your behavior is more than wolfish and I'm more certain of it each moment.



Also, another interesting fact (completely unrelated), why would the wolves hunt someone that has a chance to be run up next day (Tonka)? It really looks like either a) standing order on Tonka that was unchanged b) alibi creation for a smart wolf (won't comment more on b yet)

As to why Falc saved aedan, he did it out of sympathy.
You are right that it appears that the wolves didn't try to save aedan, but Falc saved aedan 8 minutes before deadline so there would have been plenty of time to save him if Falc hadn't done it, so you cannot use the fact that Falc saved aedan to clear aedan, but it doesn't incriminate him either.
I agree that aedan voting Falc isn't suspicious - as I also pointed out above; what I find somewhat suspicious is that he did it as a snipe, but again that could be to make sure that nobody changed to him after he had changed to Falc. Overall I don't find aedan much more suspicious than others though.

 

[Daffius]

As to why Falc saved aedan, he did it out of sympathy.
You are right that it appears that the wolves didn't try to save aedan, but Falc saved aedan 8 minutes before deadline so there would have been plenty of time to save him if Falc hadn't done it, so you cannot use the fact that Falc saved aedan to clear aedan, but it doesn't incriminate him either.
I agree that aedan voting Falc isn't suspicious - as I also pointed out above; what I find somewhat suspicious is that he did it as a snipe, but again that could be to make sure that nobody changed to him after he had changed to Falc. Overall I don't find aedan much more suspicious than others though.

I dont get it? You're saying the wolves would let aedan be run up until 8 minutes to deadline before saving him??? I give up... Lets wait and see how Rysz tries to clear you

As for the bolded part reread post 203 you said he was suspicious. Since Aedan hasnt posted I pressume I convinced you?

 

[Wagonlitz]

I dont get it? You're saying the wolves would let aedan be run up until 8 minutes to deadline before saving him??? I give up... Lets wait and see how Rysz tries to clear you

As for the bolded part reread post 203 you said he was suspicious. Since Aedan hasnt posted I pressume I convinced you?

If they are going to save him in the last minutes why not wait until to very last minute, since both will expose them.

Yes you have made me remember that what made aedan suspicious yesterday was Falc saving him on day 1; that aedan chose to snipe and not change in proper time still stands, but as I said that isn't very suspicious since he could be fearing a counter change after he had changed his vote.

 

[Cliges]

Final Verdict on Flemish Red Ale: Not bad...but is this beer?

Pros: Has flavor. Somewhat complex. Not cloying-which is a plus, because some styles I like have exemplars (eg hefeweizen) that are that or come close to it.

Cons: Kind of sour, doesn't really taste like beer should.

7/10


WW is what keeps me from starting a blog. I can always rant to you people.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Vote wagonlitz

Stupid run up, predictable result.

 

[Rysz]

Lets wait and see how Rysz tries to clear you

Why would I? I am not looking for villagers, I'm looking for wolves. I must try to find those that are suspicious. Why would I try to clear someone?

Tomorrow I will try if I can distill (sorry GM) something out of everything that was said and done. For now I'm tired. Went to the movies (The Grand Budapest Hotel, excellent suggestion), and took a stupid train that was more standing still at stations than travelling... Out of 41 minutes it stood waiting for 21...

 

[Cliges]

Vote count

Wagonlitz: daffius (204) Capt. Kiwi (211)


First page updated.

 

[tonkatoy5]

Final Verdict on Flemish Red Ale: Not bad...but is this beer?

Pros: Has flavor. Somewhat complex. Not cloying-which is a plus, because some styles I like have exemplars (eg hefeweizen) that are that or come close to it.

Cons: Kind of sour, doesn't really taste like beer should.

7/10


WW is what keeps me from starting a blog. I can always rant to you people.

Where did you find it? Flemish ale that is?

 

[Cliges]

Where did you find it? Flemish ale that is?

My basement.

 

[Rysz]

It's been disturbingly quiet around here (ok, it's sunday morning).

I've gone through the entire thread, it's hard to make someting sensible out of all of this.

On the end of the first day: Yes, there was a case to be made that falc, wagon and aedan could be packmates trying to play a dangerous but cunning game (running up your own pakcmates to try to clear yourself is not a new tactic, and it can work). However, it appeared Falc was just acting stupid.

What remains interesting about the first day is the choice Aedan made on who he picked from all those with 2 votes to run up to save himself. The choices were: Videonfan, Rysz and wagonlitz. We know videonfan is a villager, and I'm a villager. We don't know what Wagon is. He choose a villager, but ofcourse, the odds of picking up a villager to run up is larger than him picking a wolf. If Aedan is a villager, it was just random. If Aedan however shows up to be a wolf, that would alarmingly increase the chance of Wagon also being a wolf. It does not necessarily go the other way. If wagon would be found to be a wolf, that would not say anything about aedan, he could still be a villager who just had back luck choosing who to run up to save himself.

The 2nd day was mostly a run-up between aedan and falc.
Arkasas brought the tie back within an hour to the deadline, while earlier today got attention for staying out of it yesterday. Trying to prove himself?
Aedan saved himself. Note that Falc had his vote on aedan and thus couldn't save himself.
This also means that Aedan didn't have much to fear of a countersnipe by Falc, but the players that could have made a counter-snipe to restore the tie were: Daffius, Kiwi, Walrus. There were also the following players that could have restored the tie or save Falc all together: Wagon, Ithvan, seamus, Naut, Arkasas
And while we're making lists: the following players could have saved Aedan (before he did it himself): Rysz, GreatUberGeek, drxav, tonka

Now I'm not yet sure what we could do with those lists, but I think they might provide more information once we get a wolf.

Problem now is that while knowing whether aedan is a wolf or not would certainly provide more information for the village, I really don't want the village again running up Aedan for a third day, because it tends to reduce the information we might get about other players. (in the previous game that was the reason why I tied on the 2nd day, because that would provide quite some information for the village allowing them to move on)

That does remind me about a certain player long long time ago who sacrificed himself so the village would know for sure he wasn't a wolf, allowing them to continue. Ever since that day I hold great respect for that player, dublish. He actually gave up his own "win" but helped the village on the road to victory.

(I'm not saying aedan should have done the same, every player makes his own reasoning, but it sure would have helped the village here)

I am tempted to follow kiwi in his earlier remark about two players that stayed out of the first day-mess, while one of them now actually brought in the tie (helping save aedan, might I add)

Vote Arkasas

 

[walrus]

Yep, Sunday morning, and presumably everyone with good taste got up early to watch the F1. So running on about 2/3 hours sleep:

Vote Arkansas

 

[Wagonlitz]

Arkasas does look suspicious for reestablising the tie yesterday, but I will mainly vote him because I won't get back online until after deadline and I am tied with Arkasas at the moment.
If I end up dying make sure to look at how Daffius has been trying to lynch me since day 1.

Vote Arkasas

 

[Ithvan]

Cons: Kind of sour, doesn't really taste like beer should.

I just read an article about why European beer is worse in the States than on the Old Continent: bad transport. It's being shipped in normal containers (not cooled or insulated), so it basically spends a month or more in the open sun on ships and docks before it gets stored adequately. I remember you likened it to vinegar before. This is the likely culprit.



Now, back to the game.

Vote Daffius

He's been going after Wagonlitz pretty single-mindedly. Criticising a player in his second game of wolfishness makes no sense, according to me.

 

[Rysz]

I just read an article about why European beer is worse in the States than on the Old Continent

Except for Heineken. That tasted a lot better in the States then it does in the Netherlands (where I actually never drink it. Hertog Jan for the win!)