Werewolf Lite CCLXIX: A Night in the Lonesome October: 1887

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tonkatoy5

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This is me taking a backseat. Doesn't mean I don't have to say anything, I just won't be dictating lynches.


There's a 1/4 chance of a wolf being lynched on the first day, with or without a vote-switch. Sure, I also feel bad when it doesn't deliver a wolf but it's basic probability.

I'm failing to realize why it wasn't panzer, why he was spared, that is my question marty
 

snoopdogg

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This is me taking a backseat. Doesn't mean I don't have to say anything, I just won't be dictating lynches.


There's a 1/4 chance of a wolf being lynched on the first day, with or without a vote-switch. Sure, I also feel bad when it doesn't deliver a wolf but it's basic probability.

Are you a wolf?
 

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At the risk of sounding as if I'm proposing metagaming, you people really ought to stop hunting the split so early this often.
 

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Because me and EURO decided to. EURO because he's EURO, I because voting new people each day and during days preserves and increases information.

Increase information? What information was learned from yesterday, please enlighten me, the only thing I learned was three people are villagers and dead, and someones wolfdar is very off, guess who...
 

marty99

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Increase information? What information was learned from yesterday, please enlighten me, the only thing I learned was three people are villagers and dead, and someones wolfdar is very off, guess who...
I really don't have time. I've spent a lot of time explaining this before, in last game for example. AOK. 11 was a lot better at explaining it than I am, though. Just read some of his games.
 

trespoe

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Nautilu will now be subbing for Lemeard.
 

tonkatoy5

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I really don't have time. I've spent a lot of time explaining this before, in last game for example. AOK. 11 was a lot better at explaining it than I am, though. Just read some of his games.

Sounds like bullshit, if it isn't explain it to me later please I'll be waiting for a long post about the "information gained" by saving Panzer, and killing Aedan and Pj

Also I live in the present not the past
 

marty99

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Sounds like bullshit, if it isn't explain it to me later please I'll be waiting for a long post about the "information gained" by saving Panzer, and killing Aedan and Pj

Also I live in the present not the past
I honestly don't care if you think it's bullshit by now, I assumed that if you GM'ed the previous game you might have read some of my posts on the matter, clearly not. I don't want to get drawn into being active in this game (it's already happening) but I'll come up with an explanatory post sometime tomorrow.
 

PanzerCorps

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Sounds like bullshit, if it isn't explain it to me later please I'll be waiting for a long post about the "information gained" by saving Panzer, and killing Aedan and Pj

Also I live in the present not the past

I don't know if we gained much information this time but come on, it's the strategy, people always run up multiple people on day 1 for info. Whether or not it works is not mine to judge.
You can live in the present but if you forget the historical strategies you end up fighting Russia in the winter. The strategies are not always gonna work, but they work so often they're always done, so basing your votes on that is quite stupid, really. OR wolfish. I only put a vote on you to pressure you into giving a reason for voting me, but now it's actually sounding like a good idea...
 

tonkatoy5

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I honestly don't care if you think it's bullshit by now, I assumed that if you GM'ed the previous game you might have read some of my posts on the matter, clearly not. I don't want to get drawn into being active in this game (it's already happening) but I'll come up with an explanatory post sometime tomorrow.

you didn't have time to explain to me your reasoning, but have had time to reply to that post and another one, Not asking for much Marty just want a clear answer, like I saved Panzer because hes my packmate, or I saved panzer because he sent me a pm saying he was seer, or I saved Panzer because well I don't know Euro did it and i wanna fit in
 

tonkatoy5

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I don't know if we gained much information this time but come on, it's the strategy, people always run up multiple people on day 1 for info. Whether or not it works is not mine to judge.
You can live in the present but if you forget the historical strategies you end up fighting Russia in the winter. The strategies are not always gonna work, but they work so often they're always done, so basing your votes on that is quite stupid, really. OR wolfish. I only put a vote on you to pressure you into giving a reason for voting me, but now it's actually sounding like a good idea...

Lynch the guy who didn't kill the two villagers? yeah see how that catches on, and I'm glad you now see no information was gained, if anything it was lost
 

tonkatoy5

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You didn't kill the two villagers but you were voting one, and had Lemeard been here you could have killed 3. So yeah...

I was voting you, and lemeard didn't get on so other then you saying your a villager you have no other basis for being a villager, also if I was a wolf I wouldn't be attacking you like this as I would know your not a wolf, meaning the amount of pressure I have on you would look suspicious later on, and likely lead to my own lynching, if I was a wolf
 

marty99

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you didn't have time to explain to me your reasoning, but have had time to reply to that post and another one, Not asking for much Marty just want a clear answer, like I saved Panzer because hes my packmate, or I saved panzer because he sent me a pm saying he was seer, or I saved Panzer because well I don't know Euro did it and i wanna fit in
You're being very aggressive. I'm not sure if you're trying to get a reaction out of me, or if you just act very differently as a wolf. If it's the former, it won't work, I can assure you of that.
Here's a post of AOK's on the matter: (Ironically the village lost this game in one of the worst collective goodie performances I have ever seen, but the philosophy is valid and is more successful than any other in werewolf history, possibly the only successful one in fact)

This will be my last post on the matter of village voting philosophy. After this, I will just move on.



All actions have context. It just so happens that some have context that is hidden at the time, only to be revealed later. That does not mean it is not there, and is not valuable.



No. You have their vote, which if forced properly reveals a piece of the puzzle. Sometimes I would switch zero times, or one time, or half a dozen times, often ending up on the same person multiple times. One of the more common ways in which this would force mistakes is that a player would seem fine voting someone early in the day but would then all of the sudden not be so willing 3 minutes before the deadline. Bingo, dead wolf. There are a dozen other traps one can set as well.

Vote switches are like handing a revolver with a few loaded cylinders to a player and then telling him to point it at the chosen target and pull the trigger. Do they pull the trigger? Under what conditions? Yes, a few of the cylinders are unloaded, but you may end up shooting the poor fellow in the face. This is a meaningful decision. When these decisions are added together with a discerning eye, wolfpacks will reveal themselves. In a game without the Seer, this strategy is even more logical.

You can claim otherwise, but I am covered in wolf-skins motherfucker. Not much you can say to that.
Not true. An experienced player can pick out the meaningful pieces. This is how I got the large majority of my wolves. Considering the player and the circumstance, the votes cast can tell much.


I cannot recall ever catching a wolf through "forcing them to talk". And I have been playing for over half a decade. Its always actions that do them in. In many cases, actions that I forced them to take. Decent players know how to put on their poker face. You are not getting anyone this way, unless you are playing with clueless noobs, idiots, or school-children and even then it will not work for long

Again, I will ask, have wolves become so retarded that they blow themselves up by "talking"?


Votes for dead people are much less likely to be useful over the course of the game than votes against the living. I simply pointed this out. The material on King was thrown away, or at the very least an opportunity for more was lost. There is nothing worse than ending up at the end with nothing to go on because none of the remaining players has ever been threatened.


By telegraphing the vote cycle to the baddies you make baddie coordination much simpler. They have no fear of one of their own getting caught late and having their machinations blown up. They have plenty of time to respond and place their votes carefully. For all the careful reflection by the village, the wolves will always be a step of ahead there. Again, this is doubly true for a Seerless game. One of the many aspects that many people overlook is the paralysis that I inflicted on wolves. The village basically ran the show. The wolves almost never had the initiative.



By talking right? Wolfpacks get blown up by talking? Crovax's ghost haunts all wolfpacks now?

My God what has Lite come to. EURO, why do you stand by and say nothing in the face of such atrocity? :mad:
 

PanzerCorps

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I was voting you, and lemeard didn't get on so other then you saying your a villager you have no other basis for being a villager, also if I was a wolf I wouldn't be attacking you like this as I would know your not a wolf, meaning the amount of pressure I have on you would look suspicious later on, and likely lead to my own lynching, if I was a wolf

Meh, now that excuse is just terrible. So basically anyone attacking another strongly can be guaranteed to not be a wolf? And the reason for that is that people will assume he is? Really? How does that make sense?

Besides, remember how last game I was trying to get SPLIT lynched for quite some time? And how he ended up being innocent? And how despite that I wasn't even run up?
 

tonkatoy5

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You're being very aggressive. I'm not sure if you're trying to get a reaction out of me, or if you just act very differently as a wolf. If it's the former, it won't work, I can assure you of that.
Here's a post of AOK's on the matter: (Ironically the village lost this game in one of the worst collective goodie performances I have ever seen, but the philosophy is valid and is more successful than any other in werewolf history, possibly the only successful one in fact)

I hate things like that, all they do it open it up for a wolf to play a villager so in one game he can repost it and be like, "Yeah according AOK I'm not a wolf"

Vote switching is fine when its just you, but when a bunch of people switch yeah thats a little weird, and are you saying your context is hidden?