Werewolf Lite CCIV: Wimbledon

[esemesas]

Yep, first game is the Paradox star league, this was my second. I guess someone had a problem with me voting for Capt. Kiwi without reason lol

Care to sub?

 

[reis91]

Interestingly, reis voted for Athalcor the moment he voted Xeno. You'll notice the post was edited. I happened to see it before the edit, and the "reasoned" reason for going for Athalcor wasn't nearly as well developed, and it's still not water tight. That edited reason managed to shift the focus off Xeno for a while. I'll also note in passing that Randakar completely ignored the Athalcor vote for Xeno. It was a random vote with little to say, but he did find something to say about everything else...

You mean this one, right? I edited in the explanation, because I meant to write a line and ended up writing a lot.

WW is not Soviet. WW comes from the dawn of times, from the formation of tribes, guided by a Seer, and beset by angry beasts who forced the humans to unite and exterminate them. Like I am about to do...

unvote Rysz
vote Athalcor

PS : Have I told you how I dislike blatantly random votes? Sure, we don't have much to go on, but there was already one hunt, there is something to think already. Who might have had SPLIT hunted? You were pestered by him in the last Lite, but... it was public, and thus you might have been wary of being accused of meta. Others could have used exactly the same ploy to frame you. Or you could have done it yourself and banked on the old "I would never do something as obvious as that"...

Need more data. And brave wolves that are not cowards to meet my challenge face to face, instead of having me hunted so I don't blow them up.

The reason wasn't meant to be well-developed. I was fishing for information. Still, people should be aware that this was when everyone was still voting random. In fact, it seems you should thank me for such discussion in the first day, which produced a wolf culprit (although I still find it fell a bit off the sky)

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

First of all: I applaud Capt. Kiwi for the enthusiasm and thinking he puts into this game. If all new players were like that, we old veterans are quickly outplayed.

I will have to think further about whether his conclusion is valid or not.

I have more time on my hand than I know what to do with right now

You mean this one, right? I edited in the explanation, because I meant to write a line and ended up writing a lot.

Yep, that one.

 

[reis91]

First of all: I applaud Capt. Kiwi for the enthusiasm and thinking he puts into this game. If all new players were like that, we old veterans are quickly outplayed.

I will have to think further about whether his conclusion is valid or not.


Randakar is certainly cunning enough to pull off grand schemes, but he is not one to include a sellout in that scheme. That is not to say he would never do a sellout, but certainly not a planned one.

I hate it when not the suspicious acting person gets votes, but the one who set the suspicious action off. If you think the wolves put a quick wagon of votes (not that a good wolf pack would do that anyway) on someone else to save a suspected packmate. Then vote bandwagonning wolves, and not the perhaps (in this case, assured) innocent that is only passively a part of it.

Also, by announcing it, do you really think wolves would again (especially since the first time was already unlikely enough) do such a thing?

Rysz, I recall a certain game where I had all of my pack voting me for 3 or 4 days. Randakar was in that pack. Never say never.

 

[reis91]

Caught up with the rest. I agree with most of the analysis, and do not deny I have done some suspicious things, but questioning the lynch of a packmate when he is about to be lynched is a huge gamble.

Yet, you failed to ask yourself a really important question. Was there more than one wolf being run-up yesterday? It can seriously affect projections. Even randakar might have sold one packmate out to prevent a possible jacob-lite TIE with 2 wolves.

And what about the hunt. It seriously puzzles me. Kingepyon? Was it an attempt at searching the Seer in the throwaways? Was it because he voted another wolf, and they thought he had scanned him on the first night but didn't have a mean to out him safely? (a bit convoluted for sure, but still within the realm of possibility). Sure, Seers, especially those less experienced, tend to avoid engagements in lynches and generally play a more conservative game.

 

[randakar]

I applaud the tinfoil hat Captain Kiwi put on, but it's pretty much wrong on my part.
Where did I say Athalcor was a good target? He was better than a pure random vote, sure, but .. not by much, really.

And really, why did I vote Xeno in the first place then, when at that time there were several others at two votes on them? If I was Xeno's packmate that would have put him into danger unnecessarily, wouldn't it? I could have just left it alone, or switch to some villager instead.

*shrug* Then again, I like being a little suspicious here. It suits me just fine.

What we really should do though is take a look at people voting Najs and (to a lesser degree) Athalcor in this run up. Najs is about as cleared as it gets, so he would be a valid target for wolves to vote without selling out packmates.

edit:

Rysz, I recall a certain game where I had all of my pack voting me for 3 or 4 days. Randakar was in that pack. Never say never.

Yeah, and the end result of that was pretty funny, with the village saving you over and over and the wolves ending up losing absolutely nobody.
Me and EL bandwagoning you was pretty much necessary that game though, you were such a popular target for early lynching back then ..

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Caught up with the rest. I agree with most of the analysis, and do not deny I have done some suspicious things, but questioning the lynch of a packmate when he is about to be lynched is a huge gamble.

Yet, you failed to ask yourself a really important question. Was there more than one wolf being run-up yesterday? It can seriously affect projections. Even randakar might have sold one packmate out to prevent a possible jacob-lite TIE with 2 wolves.

And what about the hunt. It seriously puzzles me. Kingepyon? Was it an attempt at searching the Seer in the throwaways? Was it because he voted another wolf, and they thought he had scanned him on the first night but didn't have a mean to out him safely? (a bit convoluted for sure, but still within the realm of possibility). Sure, Seers, especially those less experienced, tend to avoid engagements in lynches and generally play a more conservative game.

Isn't seer usually only given to players who have shown enough of a track record to be considered reliable? Although there are quite a few newer players. But I agree, the only reasons for hunting Kingepyon that I can see are because he was though to be a very serious threat, or to make it look like he was. And all he posted that I saw was a vote on me.

randakar is the one who has pushed that line the most, although quite subtly. I was hoping he would bring up that theory, and he sought of did, but Kingepyon was unfortunately the one to actually put it in words first.

 

[randakar]

Isn't seer usually only given to players who have shown enough of a track record to be considered reliable? Although there are quite a few newer players. But I agree, the only reasons for hunting Kingepyon that I can see are because he was though to be a very serious threat, or to make it look like he was. And all he posted that I saw was a vote on me.

It tends to be given to decent players, yes. But that doesn't mean it can't be given to promising newbies, if only to throw the village a curve ball. If newbies are never important roles you eliminate a lot of options for the village to explore.

randakar is the one who has pushed that line the most, although quite subtly. I was hoping he would bring up that theory, and he sought of did, but Kingepyon was unfortunately the one to actually put it in words first.

Sorry, what line is this?

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

I applaud the tinfoil hat Captain Kiwi put on, but it's pretty much wrong on my part.
Where did I say Athalcor was a good target? He was better than a pure random vote, sure, but .. not by much, really.

And really, why did I vote Xeno in the first place then, when at that time there were several others at two votes on them? If I was Xeno's packmate that would have put him into danger unnecessarily, wouldn't it? I could have just left it alone, or switch to some villager instead.

*shrug* Then again, I like being a little suspicious here. It suits me just fine.

What we really should do though is take a look at people voting Najs and (to a lesser degree) Athalcor in this run up. Najs is about as cleared as it gets, so he would be a valid target for wolves to vote without selling out packmates.

I like my tinfoil hat too, I think it makes me look rather dashing.

It took me forty odd minutes to write the post, someone else can look if they want. It's possible that you didn't state that.

As for Xeno, it's you pulling out near the end in a way that would have seen him safe, only to have two people moving on him at the same time.

You're either one of the most useful villagers here, or one of the most dangerous wolves. To your credit, I can't say for certain which - it never pays for everyone to be certain about you.

Edit: The Kingepyon-Kiwi feud line. No one has really paid it much attention, which is why I left it out until it was too late to see who would bring it up. But you have two lines on the subject, which is two more than anyone else, even if they don't accuse me. Which is how I'd expect a smart wolf to play it

 

[reis91]

Isn't seer usually only given to players who have shown enough of a track record to be considered reliable? Although there are quite a few newer players. But I agree, the only reasons for hunting Kingepyon that I can see are because he was though to be a very serious threat, or to make it look like he was. And all he posted that I saw was a vote on me.

randakar is the one who has pushed that line the most, although quite subtly. I was hoping he would bring up that theory, and he sought of did, but Kingepyon was unfortunately the one to actually put it in words first.

Well, maybe in Big. In Lite it's usually pretty random. In my Lite games, what I usually do is to make it random, but letting the Seer know that they can ask general questions about WW and briefing them about backup and conditional orders.

It's the only way, other ways will lead to meta-slaughter. It's not funny to be a vet and always get hunted at start, except when you are a wolf and people then notice you survived the first hunt, assume you are wolf and lynch you.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Makes sense. In that case, they were at 1 in 12 odds of getting the seer going for Kingepyon, so it's still an odd choice. It'll come out by the end of the thread, at any rate.

 

[reis91]

Right, I can't make sense of this now. Perhaps later, with a fresh mind.

Placeholder : vote Boris

Edit : Yes, 1/12 odds with a dice roll, after sorting the wolves. But after the game begins, behavioral analysis starts being applied. Epyon staying out of the struggle and generally not drawing attention to himself could have been taken as a sign of a somewhat inexperienced seer.

 

[Kingepyon]

Care to sub?

Yeah I can sub

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

I didn't think there'd be any way to build a water tight case on you two, you're too good for that. I do think it's tamius who was the most suspicious though - I'd forgotten about him defending Xeno so vigorously against hebelecan after having gone after Najs for so long. I'd be interested to hear what others think, and whether they agree that the way Xeno and tamius targeted Najs doesn't preclude them from being packmates. And I'd be interested to see what he has to say for himself, once he shows.

Regardless of that, time to go look at the other ten candidates.

 

[randakar]

Definitely time to go look at other candidates, I agree.

Vote Capt. Kiwi

This is mostly a vote for information gathering purposes. He's one of the more active people in the thread, so if he's a wolf he may be attempting to manipulate things to his advantage. I don't really have a case against him though. Not yet, at any rate.
(I intend to reread the thread with an eye on Xeno's previous interactions with the village, mind.)

 

[reis91]

In WW there hardly are any water tight cases. There is good lynch-rhetoric and bad lynch rhethoric. It's good that you avoid tunnel vision, though.

To be honest, I have my own suspicions about you. They are mostly based on behavioral quirks that often betray many good WW players, and not actually grounded in arguments.

To give an example, being slightly ahead of yourself anticipating what others can say against you, up to an unreasonable level. Or saying that you "just painted an enormous target on your forehead". Also, one more thing...

Also, what did Kingepyon do to deserve a day one hunt? Care to explain, wolves?

Reasonably neutral, although it made me wonder... and sure enough, a while earlier...

I'm not really out to get Kingepyon or tamius or Falc lynched first up. That can wait till next time.

Thoughts?

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

That it'll look really bad for you if you do get me lynched

If you want to get an idea of my play style, you have got the big thread. I understand it is fair game to bring in a player's past behaviour, as a means of comparing their current behaviour. Other than that, you can come to your own conclusions. I'd manipulate people whatever role I was in, but you'll have to take my word on that

Edit: Page 18 is where tamius suspiciously defends Xeno, for those who want to check it.

 

[Lord Strange]

Sorry, hadn't realised we started, got lost on what day it was. I blame end of exams drinking.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Right, I can't make sense of this now. Perhaps later, with a fresh mind.

Placeholder : vote Boris

Edit : Yes, 1/12 odds with a dice roll, after sorting the wolves. But after the game begins, behavioral analysis starts being applied. Epyon staying out of the struggle and generally not drawing attention to himself could have been taken as a sign of a somewhat inexperienced seer.

Haven't you already voted Rysz? #472

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Vote count. Had to go back to my last tally, because all the others after that had randakar in the wrong place/two places. No effect on the outcome of the lynching.

Round 0

Hunted - THE_SPLIT

Round 1
(5) XenomorphII - Athalcor, hebelecan, Jamie550, Najs, randakar
(3) Najs - tamius23, Adamus, XenomorphII
(1) tamius23 - Boris ze Spider
(1) Capt. Kiwi - Kingepyon
(2) Athalcor - Rysz, Capt. Kiwi
(1) marty99 - Falc
(1) Rysz - reis91

nv: Lord Strange, marty99
Hunted: Kingepyon

Round 2

(1) Adamus - Boris ze Spider
(1) tamius23 - Capt. Kiwi
(1) Rysz - reis91
(1) Capt. Kiwi - randakar