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aedan777

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Falc doesn't have a good voting record, as said, Latinkaiser and his sub euro don't have a great record either, and I remember something Latinkaiser did struck me as suspicious, but that might have been based on the assumption that Brovahkiin was a wolf. alxeu is also a good candidate for poor voting record and generally being a zombie. Of course the issue with all of this is that I'm not really much better, Though I'd certainly say that if I subbed in as a wolf after getting hunted Night 0 as the seer, I sure wouldn't put saving my packmate too high on my priority list. Also in a kind of meta-argument, I wouldn't have posted about Brovahkiin being a wolf if I had known the GM got it wrong.

But for who I should vote, I like the three mentioned in the beginning of my post and think they would be a decent set of three to run-up today.

Vote alxeu

Since he doesn't have a vote yet.
 

Gen. Skobelev

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NIGHT 1

Aedan the seer is hunted.


DAY 1

Rov: 5
aedan777 [109]
Falc [146]
EUROO7 [103 marty99 -> 194]
JohnKjeken [113 EURO -> 223]
Arkasas [142 brovahkiin -> 247 Arkasas -> 257]

Arkasas: 4
EURO [158 brovahkiin -> 171 Rov -> 204 EUROO7 -> 212 Rov -> 241]
marty99 [106 EUROO7 -> 207 Rov -> 210 brovahkiin -> 244]
madchemist [114 Sadn3r205 -> 145 brovahkiin -> 245]
Rov [104 Gorganslayer -> 170 brovahkiin -> 248]

Rovsea: 3
brovahkiin [134 Rov -> 137]
Sand3r205 [164]
Sleepyhead [125 Rov -> 221]

brovahkiin: 1
Rovsea [121 Sand3r205 -> 126 Sleepyhead -> 126 Arkasas -> 139]

Gorganslayer: 1
Gen. Skobelev [136]

EURO: 1
alxeu [155]

JohnKjeken: 1
Gorganslayer [123]

Sand3r205 tried to vote Arkasas in post 254 but didn’t unvote first.


Rov the villager is lynched.


NIGHT 2

EURO the villager is hunted.


DAY 2

brovahkiin: 5
aedan777 [284]
alxeu [299]
Falc [310]
madchemist [276 aedan777 -> 328]
Arkasas [336]

Arkasas: 4
Rovsea [295]
brovahkiin [297]
Gen. Skobelev [304]
Sand3r205 [301 brovahkiin -> 306]

Sand3r205: 2
Gorganslayer [275]
Sleepyhead [292]

alxeu: 1
marty99 [272]

EUROO7: 1
JohnKjeken [300]


not voted: 1
EUROO7 []

madchemist tried to vote Arkasas in post 337 but deadline was passed.


brovahkiin the villager is lynched.

NIGHT 3

Gorganslayer the villager is hunted.


DAY 3


Arkasas: 11
EUROO7 [348]
aedan777 [349]
Rovsea [350]
Sleepyhead [353]
Gen. Skobelev [355]
alxeu [358]
Sand3r205 [360]
madchemist [364]
marty99 [361 Arkasas -> 363 EUROO7 -> 365]
JohnKjeken [368]
Falc [369]

madchemist: 1
Arkasas [362 Arkasas -> 371]


Arkasas the wolf is lynched.


NIGHT 4

madchemist the villager is hunted.
 

Gen. Skobelev

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Showing on the front page who's subbed and by who would help. I guess full readthrough is in order.
 

Sleepyhead

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My previous analysis put Colonel Sanders as likely packmate of Arkasas and I like remind people of his vote day 1 which allowed for Arkasas to save himself. Therefore I - voting:

Vote Sander

That said, I wouldn't mind checking out those Brovah voters either.
 

Falc

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People who voted Arkasas on day 1:

Daffius/Rovsea (unvoted before the late switch)
Euro
Marty
Madchemist
Rovsea
Arkasas

People who voted Arkasas on day 2, when an alibi vote was perhaps a bit more necessary:

Daffius/Rovsea
Brovahkiin
Skobelev
Sand3r


So we have Daffius/Rovsea as first voter on Ark two days in a row. It is consistent with villager behaviour but he could be a Smart Wolf (TM).

marty was willing to vote Ark on day 1 but made the first vote of day 2 on someone else and remained there. Also a bit suspicious.

Skobie and Sand3r, well, I really doubt not a single wolf voted Ark on day 2.


VOTE ROVSEA

Because Daffius/he got some votes on day 1 too, meaning that if we lynch him, it might reveal more information
 

Rovsea

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People who voted Arkasas on day 1:

Daffius/Rovsea (unvoted before the late switch)
Euro
Marty
Madchemist
Rovsea
Arkasas

People who voted Arkasas on day 2, when an alibi vote was perhaps a bit more necessary:

Daffius/Rovsea
Brovahkiin
Skobelev
Sand3r


So we have Daffius/Rovsea as first voter on Ark two days in a row. It is consistent with villager behaviour but he could be a Smart Wolf (TM).

marty was willing to vote Ark on day 1 but made the first vote of day 2 on someone else and remained there. Also a bit suspicious.

Skobie and Sand3r, well, I really doubt not a single wolf voted Ark on day 2.


VOTE ROVSEA

Because Daffius/he got some votes on day 1 too, meaning that if we lynch him, it might reveal more information
I'm telling you right now that I'm going to be going somewhere today that will take me offline from about an hour from now to deadline, so I probably won't be able to defend myself well, especially since your case sucks. :)

No, seriously, I voted Arkasas two days in a row because that guy was very suspicious, and he turned out to be a wolf.
 

JohnKjeken

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Falc doesn't have a good voting record, as said, Latinkaiser and his sub euro don't have a great record either, and I remember something Latinkaiser did struck me as suspicious, but that might have been based on the assumption that Brovahkiin was a wolf. alxeu is also a good candidate for poor voting record and generally being a zombie. Of course the issue with all of this is that I'm not really much better, Though I'd certainly say that if I subbed in as a wolf after getting hunted Night 0 as the seer, I sure wouldn't put saving my packmate too high on my priority list. Also in a kind of meta-argument, I wouldn't have posted about Brovahkiin being a wolf if I had known the GM got it wrong.

But for who I should vote, I like the three mentioned in the beginning of my post and think they would be a decent set of three to run-up today.

Vote alxeu

Since he doesn't have a vote yet.

We've come to very similar conclusions it would seem, except I think you're still arousing a little suspicion. I voted Falc because I consider him the harder lynch of the three, and so the one most needing the vote.
 

Sleepyhead

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Vote Count

FALC - 1:
JohnKjeken #379

EUROKAISER - 1:
Daffsea #380

ALXEU - 1:
aedanttt #381

COLONEL SANDERS - 1:
Sleepyhead #384

DAFFSEA - 1:
Falc #386

Not Voted:
EUROO7
Gen. Skobelev
alxeu
Sand3r205
marty99
 

Sand3r205

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My previous analysis put Colonel Sanders as likely packmate of Arkasas and I like remind people of his vote day 1 which allowed for Arkasas to save himself. Therefore I - voting:

Vote Sander

That said, I wouldn't mind checking out those Brovah voters either.
COLONEL SANDERS - 1:
Sleepyhead #384

Have I been promoted to Colonel? :cool:
 

Gen. Skobelev

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Uhh, overindulging on food at family meeting does tend to make mind fuzzy. But I'll try to get some reading done now. Looks pretty quiet day so far, unfortunately.
 

Gen. Skobelev

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Votecount.. which does seem pretty damn scattered.




Falc: 1
JohnKjeken [379]

EUROO7: 1
Rovsea [380]

alxeu: 1
aedan777 [381]

Sand3r205: 1
Sleepyhead [384]

Rovsea: 1
Falc [386]


not voted: 5
EUROO7 []
Gen. Skobelev []
alxeu []
Sand3r205 []
marty99 []
 

Sleepyhead

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Votecount.. which does seem pretty damn scattered.


Falc: 1
JohnKjeken [379]

EUROO7: 1
Rovsea [380]

alxeu: 1
aedan777 [381]

Sand3r205: 1
Sleepyhead [384]

Rovsea: 1
Falc [386]
Yes...
not voted: 5
EUROO7 []
Gen. Skobelev []
alxeu []
Sand3r205 []
marty99 []
..But it seems - these guys has ability to narrow field.
 

Gen. Skobelev

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Allrighty. Day three was totally useless as Arkasas managed to mess with the votes on both day 1 and 2, so day 3 was just bandwagoning him to hell. I guess congratulations are in order, well done as a wolf. Anyways, day 1 & 2 it is.

Day 1: First Rovsea-wagon, then turned to brovahkiin-wagon. Only the timely arrival of Euro made it to Arkasas the wolf who survived with a snipe - and perhaps with help from packmates failing to vote or not pretending to be arround?

Day 2:Strange how averse people were for voting Arkasas at first. The case, based on Euro-hunt was more or less dismissed on the early discussion for some odd reason. I'm just as against running the same people up time after time when there's no case but I don't see how that hunt couldn't been seen as a case. So yeah, suspects around.


Some observation from the different players. Not sure if not being on this list is a good thing or bad because that means more or less being invisible so yeah, that's why I haven't put things about every player.

Sand3r205: is his vote switch fail on day 1 really error or just convenient cover for failure to kill wolf? Sure, new player could err, then again I didn't find (at least with a quick glance) any such non-voting errors in the Big game.

Arkasas almost lynched on day 1, after that

Personally, I don't think this is a good enough reason to vote for me.

I'll vote for Brovahkiin, since his random band votes without reason, don't satisfy me.

Vote Brovahkiin

Then better case is made on Arkasas and switch occurs.

Unvote Brohvahkiin, vote Arkasas

About my forgotten Unvote: It was midnight, I was tired ( and I still am ). It was stupid to forget it. However today I'll try again to lynch Arkasas.

The fact that EUROO7 got murdered, is reason enough to vote for Arkasas, since he started the whole votting against him.

So earlier there was no consideration whatsoever for the nightly hunt but after the case is made and Arkasas gets some votes it's time to put Arkasas into 4-2 lead?


marty99: was part of the initial switch on day 1 to Arkasas. Arkasas didn't lynch but gets goodie points from that. Then again, loses a bit by not wanting Arkasas run up on very decent case made by Euro-hunt.

I suppose I better get my vote in now just to be safe.

Not a whole lot learned, interesting hunt on EURO, could be random, could be some meta (did EURO do anything last game?), could be because of the swing to Arkasas, implicating him...but that's sketchy. In any case I don't like voting the same person two days in a row as everyone should know by now.


aedan777: subbed al-Aziz, after subbing in no comments about the hunt & Arkasas switch at all.

Good, she was a village, otherwise I'd have to kill my packmates. Shame Rovsea wasn't a wolf, I figured he was from his behavior yesterday. Wonder how many thought the same, and how many were looking for a scapegoat.

Brovahkiin is a very good lynch still for his actions yesterday, which ended up being overshadowed by the bit with Rovsea. Latinkaiser's note of Brovahkiins actions of not being good, but refusal to back them up with a vote, and later push on Rovsea don't sit too well with me either.

Vote Brovahkiin


Sleepyhead: says operates under assumption that Arkasas is baddie after first day but promptly votes Sand3r205. What's up with that?


Latter would be "something else entirely".

Working under assumption that Arkasas - baddie, who could be possible packmate? Running this person up can provide information on both one in question and Arkasas.
Now, no one tried to save him but himself (basic self preservation), no one objected. Sander made noob vote without unvoting, which Rovs picked up on. Could be noob, could have been advised to do so by more experienced packmates under veil of noobness.


Hm.. Gorgan already on it? Alibi vote?

I'll in any case - join in.

Vote Sander

Welcome to WW.

OOC: I believe Rovsea already asked to sub.



JohnKjeken: again, not willing to run Arkasas up after day 1.

Mindlessly running up yesterdays candidates is playing the wolves' game.

vote LatinKaiser

Per Aedans case. I have a date tonight and so will hopefully not be around on deadline. I'll reread the thread right now though and post what I find.

Also, sent to me (and presumably others) PM last night which I found slightly odd.




*******************

to conclude: leave be those on the switch to Arkasas on day 1 - it was a close call and besides, marty99 is the only one around of those. I'll also leave those who were voting Arkasas on day 2. He didn't lynch but it was again a close call. That leaves

aedan777
alxeu
Falc
Sleepyhead
JohnKjeken


and out of that bunch I'll

vote alxeu

as his was a vote that put brovahkiin the villager to lead on day 2. And the general nature of his votes & posts if you want to go there, too.
 

Sleepyhead

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Sleepyhead: says operates under assumption that Arkasas is baddie after first day but promptly votes Sand3r205. What's up with that?
English language - fascist. Not my tongue of mother. What I meant was that there is little information gained from having same candidate days in row.
But as Arkasas still quite suspicious - who would be packmate if Arkasas indeed was bad? Assuming latter - Sand3r205 I found most likely. It is said in post. I tried run him up but no one follow case.
 

Gen. Skobelev

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Yes...

..But it seems - these guys has ability to narrow field.

But not that much. It's really wide open there.


English language - fascist. Not my tongue of mother.

Tä? :)p)


What I meant was that there is little information gained from having same candidate days in row.
But as Arkasas still quite suspicious - who would be packmate if Arkasas indeed was bad? Assuming latter - Sand3r205 I found most likely. It is said in post. I tried run him up but no one follow case.

And I think more information would be gathered by going with the best theory, see who opposes (or agrees!) with the plan, get more rope that way to hang the next wolf in line while getting time for the village by lynching the most suspect one.
 

Sleepyhead

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But not that much. It's really wide open there.




Tä? :)p)




And I think more information would be gathered by going with the best theory, see who opposes (or agrees!) with the plan, get more rope that way to hang the next wolf in line while getting time for the village by lynching the most suspect one.
There is also alternative scenario for you actions - alibi voting ;)
Though seems you now grasp what - up.
 

Gen. Skobelev

Werewolf therapist
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May 9, 2005
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  • Victoria: Revolutions
There is also alternative scenario for you actions - alibi voting ;)
Though seems you now grasp what - up.

Yes, of course alibi votes are possible, that's why not only the vote but when & how it's done should be considered. But like I said, better follow the best case through first before building any additional stuff above it since the theory about packmates would fold should Arkasas have proven to be villager. And you know perfectly well what's the only way to ascertain allegiance without seer...


Right, what's all this please?

Votes spread out, no big theories or anything. And of course yesterday was useless for analysis. Say what you will about Arkasas but as a wolf he messed up those last votings rather well.